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Climate feedback on the marine carbon cycle in CarboOcean Earth System Models

Climate feedback on the marine carbon cycle in CarboOcean Earth System Models. J. Segschneider 1 , E. Maier-Reimer 1 L. Bopp 2 , J. Orr 2. 1 Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany 2 Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. EU FP6 IP 511176 (GOCE).

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Climate feedback on the marine carbon cycle in CarboOcean Earth System Models

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  1. Climate feedback on the marine carbon cycle in CarboOcean Earth System Models J. Segschneider1, E. Maier-Reimer1 L. Bopp2, J. Orr2 1Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany 2Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France EU FP6 IP 511176 (GOCE)

  2. Main goal of core theme 5 within CarboOcean: Provide coupled climate carbon cycle simulations to provide predictions of oceanic carbon sources and sinks identify and possibly quantify the feedback processes between climate and the oceanic carbon cycle Background:

  3. Atmospheric pCO2 rises because of anthropogenic emissions Atmospheric temperature rises and hence circulation is changed Ocean state (temperature and circulation) are influenced by atmospheric conditions, internal dynamics may amplify perturbations Physical conditions impact on marine carbon cycle and hence oceanic CO2 uptake, which impacts on atmospheric pCO2 Controlling mechanisms for climate feedback on marine CO2 cycle

  4. physical pump: - higher SST/reduced solubility - reduced deep water formation/transport to abyss + less ice cover/increased gas exchange at high latitudes ? wind/gas exchange biological pump: - weakening MOC, less nutrients at surface, less export alkalinity pump: - acidifcation/less calcification + less silicate/more calcification Possible marine feedback mechanisms Sign indicates impact on oceanic CO2 uptake

  5. Earth System Models CM4, COSMOS1 comprising Atmosphere dynamics and chemistry LSCE: LMDZ-4, MPIM: ECHAM5 Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry LSCE: ORCA/PISCES, MPIM: MPIOM/HAMOCC5.1 Land biosphere LSCE: ORCHIDEE, MPIM: JSBACH To be added: NCAR CSM1.4 (some results, as used by Bern group) BCM (Bergen climate model) Instrument

  6. historical 20C3M CO2emissions 1860 -1999 (418GtC) future SRES A2 CO2emissions 2000-2100 (1770GtC) two experiments: one with climate feedback one without climate feedback Forcing protocol (same as C4MIP):

  7. Quantifying sensitivity: New results from CarboOcean g ocean b ocean IPSL MPI C4MIP

  8. Quantifying climate impact

  9. Identifying mechanisms for climate impact Mechanisms for climate impact: • Increasing Sea Surface Temperature decreases CO2 solubility • Decreased mixing with sub-surface and deep- waters prevents the penetration of anthropogenic carbon into deep ocean • Decrease in biological production reduces the amount of carbon transported to depth.

  10. Identifying mechanisms: NCAR  SST [oC]  Export [PgC/yr] IPSL CM2IPSL CM4MPIMNCAR

  11. Identifying mechanisms: NCAR  SST [oC] NCAR IPSL CM2IPSL CM4MPIMNCAR  mixed layer depth [m] IPSL CM2IPSL CM4MPIMNCAR

  12. Identifying mechanisms: NCAR  SST [oC]  MOC [Sv] IPSL CM2IPSL CM4MPIM

  13. Identifying mechanisms: NCAR IPSL CM2IPSL CM4MPIMNCAR  mixed layer depth [m]  MOC [Sv] IPSL CM2IPSL CM4MPIM

  14. Identifying/Quantifying climate impact: SST  Export 

  15. Identifying/Quantifying climate impact: MOC  MLD 

  16. Regionalisation

  17. Regionalisation

  18. Identifying mechanisms: - 10%

  19. opex90 Identifying mechanisms: - 13%

  20. caex90 Identifying mechanisms: + 20%

  21. CO2 induced warming and weaker MOC weaken physical pump Decrease in export production weakens biological pump Increase in calcite export strengthens alkalinity counter pump All this points to weakening potential for oceanic uptake Conclusions -identifying mechanisms-

  22. CarboOcean models range from -16 to -30 GtC/K indication for linear relationship with : nearest for MLD less clear for export (if CM4 omitted), inverse if anything for MOC (?) scattered for SST Conclusions -quantifying feedback-

  23. Sabine et al. 2004 Anthropogenic DIC MPI IPSL

  24. MPI-OM grid

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