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Female life expectancy in the record-holding country since 1840…

Brussels, March 10th, 2005 Are we living longer and in better health? Discussion by Jean-Marie Robine INSERM, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of Montpellier, France. Female life expectancy in the record-holding country since 1840…. Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002.

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Female life expectancy in the record-holding country since 1840…

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  1. Brussels, March 10th, 2005Are we living longer and in better health?Discussion byJean-Marie RobineINSERM, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of Montpellier, France

  2. Female life expectancy in the record-holding country since 1840… Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002

  3. 23,000 centenarians in Japan in 2004 Robine & Saito, 2003 (updated)

  4. More than 1200 persons aged 105 and over in Japan in 2004 Robine & Saito, 2003 (updated)

  5. Emergence of super-centenarians: more than 20 cases in Japan in 2004 Robine & Saito, 2003 (updated)

  6. Distribution of the ages at death in Japan, from 1950 to 2000, females Cheung et al, In progress

  7. Robine & Vaupel, 2001; 2003; in press

  8. HLY-DFLE : Eurostat activities for the development of this structural indicator • Eurostat data sources on limitations in functioning / disability : • Minimum European Health Module (MEHM) in the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey SILC carriedout from (2003)/2004/2005 depending on MS • For 1995-2001, use of the similar variable in the European Community Households Panel (ECHP) for EU15 (excl. LU) • 1rst half 2004 : on the basis of the 2003 requirements & supports as well as sources above, Eurostat D/6 : • took overthe existing methodology (Sullivan method) • extracted input data from ECHP & assessed its quality, • prepared documentation & computed initial values 1995-2001 Source: Eurostat

  9. Trends in LE and DFLE at birth in European countries, 1995-2003 Male

  10. Trends in LE and DFLE at birth in European countries, 1995-2003 Female

  11. Trends in DFLE using the ECHP Some conclusions • Life expectancy: • Small variation in life Expectancy between these 14 MS • increase over 1995-2003 • 2) Disability Free Life Expectancy and % of years free of disability • Large variation between these 14 MS • Diverging trends over 1995-2003: reduction / stagnation / increase in the expected life with reported disability while LE increases 3) Gender differences in DFLE trends in some countries 4) Gender differences in DFLE are smaller than gender differences in LE

  12. AUT, BEL, DNK, ITA, ESP, SWE FIN, FRA, GBR DEU, GRC, IRL, NDL, PRT Trends in expected life free of disability at age 65

  13. GRC, NDL, PRT, GBR DNK, SWE Trends in expected life free of disability at age 65 AUT, BEL, FIN, FRA, DEU, IRL, ITA, ESP

  14. Trends in DFLE using the ECHP Issues and inference • The population aging has a different impact in • the 14 european populations: • - different levels of reported disability (larger dispersion than LE) • - variation in the magnitude of the gender difference • - different trends over time • Need to further document cross-national differences • in self-reported disability: • - improved harmonisation of the instruments • - using different levels of severity (SILC) • - documenting differences in reporting • - documenting differences in selection in the panel • …

  15. Conclusion Need for • robust indicator(s)/question(s) • conceptually well defined • distinguishing functional limitations (FL) and activity restriction (AR) • identical for OECDE countries: EU, Jap, US… • long chronological series

  16. Are we living longer? YES

  17. Are we living in better health? We still don’t know!

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