Attitudinal and Economic Realities in a Global Geoscience Workforce

1. Attitudinal and Economic Realitiesin a Global Geoscience Workforce Christopher M. Keane P. Patrick Leahy Cynthia Martinez American Geological Institute 22 September 2008

2. Where we are today… • 50% of geoscience highest degree earners do NOT work as geoscientists • 50% of working geoscientists do NOT have their highest degree in geosciences • Functionally no unemployment of MS & Ph.D.s • Rapid new hire demand • Employer dissatisfaction with new hires

3. The Enrollment Rollercoaster1955-2007 40000 35000 30000 Undergraduate 25000 Students 20000 15000 10000 Graduate 5000 0 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Year

4. Newly Minted Geoscientists1973-2007 8000 7000 6000 Degrees Awarded 5000 4000 Bachelor's 3000 2000 Master's 1000 Doctorate 0 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Year

5. Female Geoscience Enrollment and Degrees 1974-2004 50 45 40 Enrolled 35 30 Percent Female Graduated 25 20 15 10 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year

6. Government 18% Petroleum 43% Academia 17% Exec. Management Mining 1% 12% Environmental 8% Other Services 1% US GeoscienceEmployment 1986 Other Academic Retired/Unemployed 5% 7% 10% Government Environmental 12% 7% 2005 Mining 9% Petroleum 50% NSF/AGI/BLS

7. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Intention Rate 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% K-12 Other Mining Federal Academia High Tech Petroleum State/Local Environmental General Business Continue Education Outside of Geoscience Student Attitudes and Careers2005 Student Advisor AGI

8. Student Interest vs. Opportunity • Hostility towards private sector • Source of bulk of opportunities • “Environmental Awareness” • Student interest declines precipitously • Preference for government • Little to no hiring growth • 29% of students intend to look at “non-traditional” careers

9. Mean Salaries2005 • Geologists • Petroleum $107K • Mining $69K • Finance $84K • Consulting $68K • Academia $58K • Government • Federal $86K • State $51K • Local $62K • Hydrologists • Consulting $65K • Academia $57K • Government • Federal $75K • State $52K • Local $63K BLS

10. What about these BS New Hires? • Substantial hiring of new geology/env. science BS recipients • What are their REAL future prospects? • Professional geoscientist? • Starbucks Barista? • Wal-Mart Greeter? • Is the profession serving them honestly?

11. Contrast to the International Environment • Australia: Year 3 students being recruited for the mining industry • UK: Stratification of geoscience programs as either vocational or doctoral destined • Southeast Asia: Concerns about geologic concept mastery (language issue) • Ex-Anglo Countries: Concerns about risk assessment and business sense.

12. Global Talent Needs European Employers Major US oil Company English communications skills Broad foundation in science & math Networking skills Innovation & invention Cultural breadth • Geographic mobility • Cultural adaptability • English language is a must • Strong field geology training • Capacity of synthesis of multi sources data • Mastering modeling tools • Capacity of quick interpretation of field • Aptitude to management of field teams • Experience of project management J. Varet, 33IGC

13. US Departmental Inbalance? • There are 602 BS-granting geo departments • Physics has fewer than 300…. • Chemistry has 1100… • Average of <5 grads per year per department • There are 379 MS-granting geo departments • 75% of MS degrees come from 10 programs • Average of 1 grad per year per department • There are 268 Ph.D.-granting geo departments • 58% of new Ph.D.s go into a Post Doc…. • Average of 1 grad per year per department

14. Top Students, Smart Choices Top students choose certainty • Medicine, Law, and Business • ~17% STEM BS grads go to professional school • High entrance requirements • Fixed exit from graduate school • High completion rate • High economic return • Science & Engineering • ~10% STEM BS grads continue in STEM areas • Lower entrance requirements • Vague completion timeframe • Low graduation rates • Unattractive earning potential Zumeta & Raveling, 2002

15. Race and Gender – the future? • Gender • Females now dominate at the university • Geoscience second at attracting women • Industry discontinuing female preferences • Race • Minorities tend not to move for college • Few geo programs near minority areas • Most come through Community Colleges • Lack of cultural continuity

16. China to the Rescue? • Rhetoric of 400,000+ geoscientists in China • Major disconnect in definition • “Geoscientist” includes any profession that deals with the Earth’s surface (ie civil engineering, land planning, etc.) • Best estimate is China produces half the level of geoscientists as the US • Chinese domestic perception is of low quantity and quality production

17. Why Do Students Choose a Field? • Self-Efficacy • Work towards tangible success • Make the class attractive and applied • Outcome Expectations • Promote rewards of the success • Social & Intellectual Standing • Interest • Align with interests and currency • Be innovative • Make success attainable Akbulut & Looney, ACM Communications, October 2007

18. Global Academic Quandry • US: Academia changes one funeral at a time • Developing nations: Too few excellent teachers, scarce materials, language issues • Former Colonies: Post-colonial exodus of talent to their prior colonial masters • Hyper-variable earnings level of faculty worldwide

19. Academic Salary Dilemma Dirks 2008

20. Conclusions • US Students are not aligning well with private sector needs • Overseas supply has issues • Overseas, the discipline’s lifecycle appears at risk • Need to evolve the culture of geoscience • Better fit academia with the “real world” • Better recognition by society at-large