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Matthew Elkins – Senior Economist Maggie Peacock – Reliability Assessment Analyst

Matthew Elkins – Senior Economist Maggie Peacock – Reliability Assessment Analyst. 2012 State of the Interconnection Standing Committee Meetings October 24, 2013. Introduction.

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Matthew Elkins – Senior Economist Maggie Peacock – Reliability Assessment Analyst

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  1. Matthew Elkins – Senior EconomistMaggie Peacock – Reliability Assessment Analyst 2012 State of the Interconnection Standing Committee Meetings October 24, 2013

  2. Introduction • The mission of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) is to promote and foster a reliable and efficient Bulk Electric System. • The report was created in response to an initiative to study vulnerabilities in the Western Interconnection begun by the Reliability Policy Issues Committee (RPIC).

  3. Objective • The objective of the report is to provide WECC’s members and stakeholders with an independent assessment of the data collected annually in the Western Interconnection. • WECC expects to determine trends that indicate risks to reliability and, where possible, provide recommendations for addressing the identified risks.

  4. Key FindingGeneration Portfolio Gas and Wind fueled facilities have experienced the largest capacity growth since 2000.

  5. Wind fueled facilities continue to experience rapid growth with a 28% capacity growth in 2012. Key Finding Generation Portfolio

  6. The overall frequency of unplanned outage events has declined among the gas fueled facilities. Key FindingGeneration Availability

  7. Many of the unplanned outages are weather related however the duration for a majority of these is less than one minute. Key FindingTransmission System Availability

  8. Key FindingEvent Analysis

  9. Key FindingEvent Analysis Sub Categories Equipment Failure continues to be the largest category of reported events.

  10. Next Steps - Future WECC Analysis • Geospatial Cluster Analysis • Normalization of data • TADS sub-regional analysis • Transmission element physical attributes • SOL Exceedances Analysis • System Condition

  11. Normalize • Weather and population centers affect the data. Attempting to “normalize” for major variables such as… • Rainy in the NW • Hot in the Desert • Major population in SoCal • This allows us to compare apples to apples, puts the data points on “equal” footing

  12. Geospatial Analysis • multidimensional analysis of the data • Correlation of layers 11 27 24 7 17 135 13 • TADS – • Aggregated 2012 • AC Substation Equipment Failure sorted by outage duration • Aggregated 2012 Lightning outages

  13. Correlation doesn’t equal causation

  14. So What?

  15. Creating the bridge Historical Data Identifying Future Risks to Reliability

  16. Benchmarking

  17. Questions Matthew Elkins Senior Economist (801) 819-7657 melkins@wecc.biz Maggie Peacock Reliability Assessment Analyst (801) 819-7621 mpeacock@wecc.biz

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