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Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification. Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India. Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013. Onset declared by IMD: 1 st June 2013.

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Forecast Verification

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  1. Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India

  2. Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013 Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013 Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date. Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel

  3. NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification F/C from 16May IC F/C from 16May IC CFSv2 GFSbc

  4. NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification F/C from 26May IC F/C from 26May IC GFSbc CFSv2

  5. Spatial pentad mean pattern

  6. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 1-5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 31May P2-lead, IC 26May P3-lead, IC 21May P4-lead, IC 16May CFS GFSbc

  7. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 1-5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 31May P2-lead, IC 26May P3-lead, IC 21May P4-lead, IC 16May CFS GFSbc

  8. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 6-10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 5Jun P2-lead, IC 31May P3-lead, IC 26May P4-lead, IC 21May CFS GFSbc

  9. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 6-10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 5June P2-lead, IC 31May P3-lead, IC 26May P4-lead, IC 21May CFS GFSbc

  10. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 11-15 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June P2-lead, IC 5June P3-lead, IC 31May P4-lead, IC 26May CFS GFSbc

  11. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 11-15 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June P2-lead, IC 5June P3-lead, IC 31May P4-lead, IC 26May GFSbc CFS

  12. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 16-20 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 15June P2-lead, IC 10June P3-lead, IC 5June P4-lead, IC 31May CFS GFSbc

  13. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 16-20 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 15June P2-lead, IC 10June P3-lead, IC 5June P4-lead, IC 31May CFS GFSbc

  14. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 21-25 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 20June P2-lead, IC 15June P3-lead, IC 10June P P4-lead, IC 5June

  15. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 21-25 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 20June P2-lead, IC 15June P3-lead, IC 10June P P4-lead, IC 5June

  16. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 26-30June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 25June P2-lead, IC 20June P3-lead, IC 15June P4-lead, IC 10June

  17. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 26-30June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 25June P2-lead, IC 20June P3-lead, IC 15June P4-lead, IC 10June

  18. CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

  19. CFS, CEI

  20. GFSbc, CEI

  21. CFS, MZI

  22. GFSbc, MZI

  23. CFS, NEI

  24. GFSbc, NEI

  25. CFS, NWI

  26. GFSbc, NWI

  27. CFS, SPI

  28. GFSbc, SPI

  29. MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS 16 May IC 21 May IC

  30. MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 26 May IC 31 May IC

  31. MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 10 Jun IC 5 Jun IC (OBS is for 20 days only)

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