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Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research

Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research. Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) co-chair Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) co-chair Barb Brown (NCAR, USA) Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada) Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Br azil) Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK) Martin Göber (DWD, Germany) Simon Mason (IRI, USA)

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Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research

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  1. Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research • Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) co-chair • Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) co-chair • Barb Brown (NCAR, USA) • Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada) • Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil) • Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK) • Martin Göber (DWD, Germany) • Simon Mason (IRI, USA) • Marion Mittermaier (Met Office, UK) • Pertti Nurmi (FMI, Finland) • Joel Stein (Météo-France) • Yuejian Zhu (NCEP, USA)

  2. Aims Verification component of WWRP, in collaboration with WGNE, WCRP, CBS • Develop and promote new verification methods • Training on verification methodologies • Ensure forecast verification is relevantto users • Encourage sharing of observational data • Promote importance of verification as a vital part of experiments • Promote collaboration among verification scientists, model developers and forecast providers • Collaborations • WWRP working groups • THORPEX • GIFS-TIGGE • Subseasonal prediction • Polar prediction • CBS • Severe Wx FDPs • Coordination Group on Forecast Verification • SRNWP • COST 731 • ECMWF TAC subgroup on verification measures

  3. FDPs and RDPs Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project a) International comparison of many new spatial verification methods b) Methods applied by researchers to same datasets (precipitation; perturbed cases; idealized cases) c) Subjective forecast evaluations d) Workshops: 2007, 2008, 2009 e) Weather and Forecasting special collection Beijing 2008 FDP/RDP SNOW-V10 RDP Sydney 2000 FDP Sochi 2014 MAP D-PHASE Severe Weather FDP Typhoon Landfall FDP

  4. Outreach http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/ Melbourne, December 2011 3-day tutorial + 3-day scientific workshop Capacity building for FDPs/RDPs, SWFDP, etc. • Verification workshops and tutorials • On-site, travelling • EUMETCAL training modules • Verification web page • Sharing of tools

  5. New focus areas for JWGFVR research "Seamless verification" - consistent across space/time scales seasonal prediction climate change Spatial methods for verifying ensemble predictions Neighborhood, scale-separation, feature-based, deformation NWP decadal prediction sub- seasonal prediction global very short range - - - - - - - - - - - - - - RCM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - regional nowcasts Spatial scale local point minutes hours days weeks months years decades Forecast lead time

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