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European Union Energy Security and Climate Change Policy in relation to the Arctic

This study explores the impact of Arctic warming on EU energy security and climate change policies, analyzing EU and German roles. It investigates actors, policy areas, and policy-making theories to offer recommendations and advance theories.

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European Union Energy Security and Climate Change Policy in relation to the Arctic

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  1. European UnionEnergy Security andClimate Change Policyin relation to the Arctic Kathrin Keil PhD candidate Berlin Graduate School for Transnational Studies (BTS) Freie Universität Berlin Department of Political and Social Sciences Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU) Picture http://www.maps-world.net

  2. Content • Relevance of the topic – Why the Arctic? Why the EU? • Research Outline 2.1 Question 2.2 Puzzles 2.3 What to analyse? Content 2.4 How to analyse? Means 2.5 Why analyse? Purpose • Brainstorming: Scenario-building for EU and Germany 3.1 EU 3.2 Germany

  3. The Arctic • 20 sq km, 66° North • Russia, US, Canada, Norway, Denmark • Temp. rise twice as quick (ACIA) • Average warming: 1-2°C (IPCC) • Ice-free Arctic Ocean: 2030, 2050 (SWP) • 13% of world’s undiscovered oil reserves • 30% of world’s undiscovered natural gas • (US Geological Survey 2008) Picture www.athropolis.com

  4. Relevance of the TopicWhy the Arctic? Potential • Energy exploitation • Transport • Fishing Challenges • Environmental damage • Indigenous populations • Heightened rivalry

  5. Why the EU? • Complex actor network  many European interests (and responsibilities!) at stake • Starting point: Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council: The European Union and the Arctic Region, 20 November 2008 • Germany’s influence

  6. 2. Research Outline2.1 Questions • What is the direction and speed of Arctic warming and what are its effects on economic-political, security and climate change policies? • How will the EU be able to exert the role of a positive player in the increasingly complex Arctic governance process? 2.1 multilevel actorness (internal) 2.2 multilevel actorness (external) 2.3 policy area • Which role can Germany play in this setting? • How do EU integration and policy-making theories account for the importance of multilevel actorness, policy area and differentiated policy-making?

  7. 2. Research Outline2.2 Puzzles • New environmental conditions in the Arctic • Who will lead and profit? • How will climate change challenge develop? • Which role will be played by the EU (and Germany) in policy areas of energy security and climate change?

  8. 2. Research Outline2.3 Content Figure 1: Assumptions and Enquiry Table 1: Order of Analysis (empirics) 1.Direction and speed of Arctic warming 2.Aspects of reasonable certainty 3.Interpretative disputes/critical variables 4.Evolution of the EU’s role 5.Evolution and effect of Germany’s role

  9. 2. Research Outline2.3 Content • Figure 2: The triangle of security, energy and climate change policies Blue: Increasing climate change problems affect and reinforce energy issues and vice versa. Red: Increasing climate change problems affect and reinforce security issues. Green: Increasing energy problems affect and reinforce security issues.

  10. 2. Research Outline2.4 Means • Multilevel actorness • National, regional, global • State and non-state • Policy area • Differentiated policy-making • External: common voice demand • Internal: diversity

  11. 2. Research Outline2.4 Means • Forward-looking research design • Start with developments in the Arctic  independent variable(s) • Asking questions about consequences/outcome  dependent variables • Discourse analysis

  12. 2. Research Outline2.4 Means Table 2: Order of analysis (whole study) • State of the art of theories • Direction and speed of Arctic warming (facts) • Methodology • Aspects of reasonable certainty • Interpretative disputes/critical variables • Evolution of the EU’s role • Evolution and effect of Germany’s role • Suggestions for theory development • Conclusions

  13. 2. Research Outline2.5 Purpose • Policy recommendation • Theory development • how European integration and policy-making theories live up - or can live up - to the centrality of the policy area, to a multilevel actor approach and to the notion of differentiated policy-making • On generalisability

  14. 3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building for EU and Germany3.1 EU • Adaptation and intensification of existing EU climate change and energy policies • More partnership and exchange • Relevant institutions (e.g. Arctic Council, NATO) • Non-EU countries (US, Canada, Russia, Norway) • Indigenous people • Direct EU action and involvement

  15. 3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building for EU and Germany3.2 Germany • Relative German inaction • Asserting ecological and climate-change priorities • ’Honest broker' or a creator of balance and synthesis

  16. Thank you for your attention!

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