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Arctic Climate Change

Arctic Climate Change. John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. Questions. What is the scientific basis for Arctic amplification? Is there a human influence on Arctic climate change? How accurate are model projections of Arctic climate change?.

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Arctic Climate Change

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  1. Arctic Climate Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis

  2. Questions • What is the scientific basis for Arctic amplification? • Is there a human influence on Arctic climate change? • How accurate are model projections of Arctic climate change?

  3. Winter temperatures over land Arctic Temperature anomaly (°C) Northern Hemisphere Year Graversen et al. [2008]

  4. Annual trends1991 to 2000 °C per decade (vertically weighted) Linked to heat transport Yang, Fyfe and Flato [2010]

  5. Annual trends1991 to 2000 Level (hPa) °C per decade (vertically weighted) Linked to heat transport Level (hPa) Latitude Yang, Fyfe and Flato [2010]

  6. Winter temperature trends: 1989 to 2008 Total trends Linked to sea ice Level (hPa) Screen and Simmonds [2010]

  7. Summer moisture trends: 1989 to 2008 Total trends Linked to sea ice Level (hPa) Screen and Simmonds [2010]

  8. The Antarctic paradox: it’s sea ice is increasing Model sea ice change: 1979-2005 The ozone hole is linked to less, not more, sea ice! Sigmond and Fyfe [2010]

  9. A human influence on Arctic warming OBS ALL Temperature anomaly (°C) NAT Year Gillett et al. [2008]

  10. OBS ANT ALL NAT A human influence on Arctic moistening Min et al. [2008]

  11. Arctic surface temperature projections IPCC AR4 WG1 Report [2007]

  12. Arctic sea ice extent projections Boé and Hall [2009]

  13. From observed winds From model winds April sea ice thickness (meters) Bitz, Fyfe and Flato [2002]

  14. Contaminant pathways Macdonald, Harner and Fyfe [2005]

  15. A typical global climate model grid IPCC AR4 WG1 Report [2007]

  16. Acceleration triggered by the arrival of warm ocean waters Jakobshavn Glacier @Konrad Steffen Holland et al. [2008]

  17. Main messages • While our understanding of Arctic climate change is advancing some significant challenges remain • While climate models for the Arctic are continuing to improve some important shortcomings remain

  18. Arctic Climate Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis

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