''Foresight & Policy Making in Relation to Climate Change''

1. From Science to Policy Slovenian and Global Perspectives Lučka KAJFEŽ-BOGATAJ University of Ljubljana IPCC WG2 Vice chair ''Foresight & Policy Making in Relation to Climate Change''

2. International Climate Activities International Non-government Organization ISSC International Social Science Council ICSU International Council for Science UNESCO WMO UN WORLD BANK FAO WHO UNEP UNDP IOC MAB IPCC UN FCCC/COP GEF IACCA Inter-Agency Committee on the Climate Agenda WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME IHDP International Human Dimensions Programme IGBP International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme WCRP WCDMP WCASP WCIRP THE CLIMATE AGENDA GOOS (IOC, WMO, UNEP, ICSU) GCOS (WMO, IOC, UNEP, ICSU) GTOS (UNEP, FAO, UNESCO, WMO, ICSU) INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMMES

3. Probability distribution of global warming, reference path

4. Critical thresholds

5. Population Wealth = per capita GDP Carbon intensity of GDP Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions 1.5 1.5 1.5 World 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 Factor (relative to 1990) 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Emissions F (emissions) P (population) 0.7 0.7 0.7 g = G/P 0.6 0.6 0.6 h = F/G 0.5 0.5 0.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1980 Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

6. WHAT IS NOT IN IPCC REPORT • The new global growth path is a reality of the 21st Century and is coal intensive • This path is not adequately represented in existing scenarios • The minimum implications of allowing this this path to continue to 2030 are serious • New emissions paths are needed to fully understand the implications of the new global trends

7. 2006 2005 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

8. Five human development tipping points • Reduced agricultural productivity • Heightened water insecurity • Increased exposure to extreme weather events • Collapse of ecosystems • Increased health risks

9. Considering the risks, why aren't these issues higher on policy agendas?

10. Problems setting emission reduction targets • Insufficient ambition • Insufficient urgency • Inaccurate indicators • Inadequate sectoral coverage • Inconsistent base years Targets are de-linked from policies

11. Global policy formulation INFORMATION National policy planning Research and modelling Scientific researchers Operational decision makers DATA Data and information pyramid Data volume decreases Subjectivity increases

12. Science Probability accepted Inequality is a fact Anticipatory Flexibility Problem oriented Discovery oriented Failure and risk accepted Innovation prized Replication essential for belief Clientele diffuse, diverse, or not present Government Certainty desired Equality desired Time ends at next election Rigidity Service oriented Mission oriented Failure and risk intolerable Innovation suspected Beliefs are situational Clientele specific, immediate, and insistent Science and government are marked by very distinct behaviours and attributes

13. Social barriers to meaningful emissions reductions • Climate threat is intangible, diffuse; obscured by natural variability • contrast ozone, air pollution • Energy is at the heart of economic activity • CO2 timescales are poorly matched to the political process Energy infrastructure takes decades to replace • Power plants being planned now will be emitting in 2050 • Autos last 20 years; buildings 100 years • Political cycle is ~6 years; news cycle ~1 day • There will be inevitable distractions • a few years of cooling • economic downturns • unforeseen expenses (e.g., Iraq, tsunamis, …) • Emissions, economics, and the priority of the threat vary greatly around the world

14. Ozone Success Story 1. Scientists : Clear warning 2. Media : Transmitted the message well 3. Special Interests : Initial oposition , but forsook disinformation, pursued advanced technologies 4. Public : quick response; spray cans replaced; no a dditional CFC infrastructure built 5 . Government : U.S./Europe leadership; allow delay & technical assistance for developing countries Hanson, 2007

15. Global Warming issue 1. Scientists : Fail to make clear distinction between climate change & BAU = A Different Planet 2. Media : False “balance”, and leap to hopelessness 3. Special Interests : Disinformation campaigns, emphasis on shorterm profits 4. Government : Seems affected by special interests; fails to lead – no Winston Churchill today 5 . Public : understandably confused, uninterested

16. Who bears (Legal/Moral) responsibility? Scientists? Media? Special Interests? Politicians? Today’s Public? Children/Grandchildren? Who Will Pay?

17. BETTER COMMUNICATION • Present solutions alongside the problems. • Describe economic and poverty-reduction gains that can be achieved along with mitigation/adaptation gains. • Relate climare change issues to specific government sectors but within an intersectoral perspective. • Let policy-makers see the issues and evidence for themselves.

18. SCIENCE AND POLICY IN DIALOGUE • Passion drives action. Knowledge, raw data, does not have passion unless someone translates this into judgements on comparative advantage, or raises an issue in the context of local socio-political trends. Data has to be translated into something that will move people. • Some people are moved by money, some by politics. These are passion parameters. • We have got to make people feel the issue.