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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT

THE DEMOGRAPHY OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT. WITH A FOCUS ON MIGRATION MEASUREMENT ISSUES Khassoum DIALLO Snr Statistician UNHCR ESCWA/DESA Training workshop on international migration statistics CAIRO, 30/06 – 03/07 2009. OUTLINE. CONTEXT: MIGRATION ASYLUM NEXUS

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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT

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  1. THE DEMOGRAPHY OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT WITH A FOCUS ON MIGRATION MEASUREMENT ISSUES Khassoum DIALLO Snr Statistician UNHCR ESCWA/DESA Training workshop on international migration statistics CAIRO, 30/06 – 03/07 2009

  2. OUTLINE • CONTEXT: MIGRATION ASYLUM NEXUS • REFUGEES: A COMPONENT OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION • UNHCR MANDATE ON REPORTING REFUGEES, ASYLUM-SEEKERS AND STATELESS PERSONS • SCOPE OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT • MEASURING FORCED DISPLACEMENT:DATA SOURCES, INDICATORS,PATTERNS AND KEY CHALLENGES • GOOD PRACTICES • UNHCR:A KEY PARTNER

  3. ARE REFUGEES INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS? • YES • They crossed international border • Citizen from another country / change of usual place of residence • Duration of stay can be decades in protracted situations • Population accounting perspective • UN Recommendations • What is specific to refugees vs other migrants • Legal perspective (1951 convention, non-refoulement, rights of refugees) international human rights etc. • Different treatment by asylum states • Data protection and confidentiality

  4. CONTEXT • Migration-asylum nexus: UNHCR 10-point plan • Cluster approach: Need for better data • Results-Based Management • Performance monitoring and accountability: UNHCR, Governments and Donors. • Advocacy for evidence based decision making.

  5. Refugees 1950 Statute of the Office of the UNHCR 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees States parties shall provide UNHCR with statistical information on the number and conditions of refugees in their countries …. The UNHCR shall collect data on refugees and report. Stateless persons (refugees & non-refugees) 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless persons 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness ExCom conclusions Collection and reporting of information on Statelessness. Internally displaced (IDPs) Request from Security Council/Secretary-General UN reform on IDP issues: Interagency Cluster approach Primary responsibility of collecting information on IDPs lies with Cluster leads. UNHCR is cluster lead for Protection, Camp Coordination and Management and Emergency Shelter. UNHCR protection mandate: Basis for statistical reporting

  6. CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS • MIGRATION • REFUGEE AND ASYLUM SEEKERS • INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS • STATELESS PERSONS • MIXED MIGRATION FLOWS

  7. SCOPE OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT • GENERAL MIGRATION ~ 200 million in 2008 • REFUGEE AND ASYLUM SEEKERS ~ 16 million end-2008 (8%) • IDPs (26 million)

  8. Key challenges • Scope and Definitions • Asylum migration nexus, national vs international • Terminology: Who is a refugee, an IDP? • Time, location, distance, causes • Data sources and triangulation • Coverage: Key information are missing • Register updating • Sources for triangulation • Data collection methodologies and tools • Data quality • Timeliness in rapidly changing situations • Comparability, scope • Compliance with recommendations (UN, UNECE, UNHCR) • Human resources • Skills and training • Uses of data for informed decision making

  9. Demographic patterns • Increasing share of urban refugees • Between 70-90% of refugees remain in their region of origin • Age sex distribution

  10. KEY INDICATORS: REFUGEE STATISTICS • GENERAL POPULATION GROWTH EQUATION • P(t+1) = P(t) + (B-D) + (I-E) In refugee context • P(t+1) = P(t) + (B-D) + (I-E) + (LI-LD) With LI/LD = Legal increases/Decreases • Other indicators: • Stock (at a given point of time, e.g. end-year), • Source: Census, registers, admin records • Flows (dynamic during a period) • Source: permits, other registers

  11. Asylum statistics: Estimation of recognition rates • Based on decisions • RRR: Refugee recognition rate • TRR Total recognition rate • CR: Number of refugees recognized under the 1951 convention • HR: Number of asylum seekers grated refugee status on temporary/humanitarian basis • RJ Number of rejected cases during the year • c: Countries of origin • y: Year Other indicators/concepts: Pending cases Percentage of otherwise closed cases Cases/persons; Type; Level

  12. METHODS & DATA SOURCES

  13. Good Practice: Census questionnaire Zambia • Purpose of immigration in 2000 population and housing census (UNHCR funded) • If foreigner, why come to this country? • Work • Study • Asylum • Family reunification • Work • Study • Asylum

  14. Good practice: Country and regional networks • European / Asian programme on forced displacement and migration • Country level network of data producers and users • Regional network • Data exchange platform (core indicators, website, focal point system etc.).

  15. UNHCR AS A PARTNER • COMPILATION/COLLECTION OF DATA ON PERSONS OF CONCERN (Over 130 countries) • SUPPORT IN DATA COLLECTION • REPORTING/DATA DISSEMINATION (Online database, Statistical Yearbook etc.)

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