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Major trends – 2013 and beyond

Major trends – 2013 and beyond. Bobby Duffy MD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London. Start with some predictions for 2013. >. = 3/10. = 1/2. >. = 1/2. = 4/10. = 1/5. 61% think Britain will fall back into recession.

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Major trends – 2013 and beyond

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  1. Major trends – 2013 and beyond Bobby Duffy MD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London

  2. Start with some predictions for 2013...

  3. > = 3/10 = 1/2 > = 1/2 = 4/10 = 1/5

  4. 61% think Britain will fall back into recession

  5. Extraordinary year in 2012 – but still one big issue ....all seemed to be going well for a few years.... What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Cameron becomes PM Brown becomes PM The economy Representative sample of c. 1000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Ipsos MORI Issues Index

  6. Exceptional crisis – but worry about the economy is the norm... What would you say is the most/other important issue facing Britain today? Ipsos MORI Issues Index Economy Unemployment Inflation/prices

  7. Not a global crisis – and we’re in the unhappiest group Net last five years good for country Brazil Sweden Net disagree country will never be the same again Belgium France GB Italy Spain Hungary Net last five years bad for country Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

  8. A new reality – where we expect our children to have a lower quality of life than us When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same? Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Ipsos MORI % Higher % Lower November 2011 April 2003

  9. How do we feel about local?

  10. Satisfaction with local govt as high as it’s been... How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs things? Ipsos MORI

  11. Trust is up… Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521) Ipsos MORI Trust %

  12. People recognise councils have an impact on everyday lives From this list, which two or three of the following do you believe have most impact on people’s everyday lives? Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,156 British adults 18+. Fieldwork dates: 13th - 19th November 2009 Change since 2006 ±%points +9 Media +1 Local councils Business +7 Civil service +3 n/a European Union Westminster Parliament -8 Prime Minister -7 Scottish Parliament/ Welsh Assembly (asked in Wales/ Scotland only) n/a Cabinet -2 Don’t know

  13. Clear preference for local decision-making Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided in your local area? Base: 1,015British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013 75% of Conservative voters

  14. Some love for local – because some loathing of national politics?

  15. Trust in politicians never been high... ...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not? Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn Ordinary man/woman in the street

  16. How trusted are local government professions? ...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not? Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn Ordinary man/woman in the street

  17. But this is serious... How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this country above the interests of their own political party? Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009 A real crisis of trust?

  18. And confidence in the government’s policies on public services falling… Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services” 2010 General Election; Cameron as PM (May 10) 2001 General Election (Jun 01) 2005 General Election (May 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) % net agree c.1,000 British Adults Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

  19. There’s also a local/national contrast in blame for cuts

  20. Who’s getting the blame for cuts now? From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cuts to public services? Base: 1,015British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013

  21. And when you look at local services? Base: 1,015British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013 26 23 21 21 4

  22. Are people expecting more for less? Or willing to pay more for the same? To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements Base: 1,015British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013 30% strongly 12% strongly 36% strongly 9% strongly

  23. Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT... To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements Base: 1,015British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013 North a bit more likely to have noticed – but largest differences by class and party support Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour Around one in four people agree with both statements....

  24. There is worry about the future... How concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of cuts [to local council services] on you and your family in the next 12 months? Base: 1,015British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013 Local council services Cuts generally

  25. Varies as you’d expect… % very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their families Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI

  26. Two other key trends…

  27. Our generational balance is changing fundamentally – four roughly equal-sized and very different generations... Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping Source: Eurostat

  28. Support for political parties is declining – maybe not by as much as expect?... Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? Source: British Social Attitudes

  29. ...driven by rock solid generational pattern Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat % ‘yes’

  30. Declining support for more welfare spending... “the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes” Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat

  31. Generations are very different... “the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes” @BobbyIpsosMORI Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat

  32. Lot of focus on “Nudging” behaviour change, using it in demand management, pensions, on organ donation and in letters from tax collectors…..

  33. “If a man sees a fly, he aims at it” “Schhpillage was down by 80%...”

  34. Explosion of behavioural data ...mobile in particular

  35. 90% smartphone ownership in 2-3 years... Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORI Any Smartphone (net)

  36. Location & URL Behavioural Data By Location we can identify, volume, demographics, web use and web based App use Identify the demographics by location Web & web based app: before, during & after they’ve been at location Identify the volume of people by location, where they have come from, where they go to

  37. Everything Everywhere’s Customer Database Demographically Profiled Phone Usage Mobile Web Domain Duration on site Session length Previous/next sites visited Amount of data uploaded/downloaded 28million UK SIMS = 15million consumers D.O.B, Postcode & gender Geo Location

  38. Location & URL Behavioural Data Saturday 30/06: 124,000 People at Oxford Circus search on the mobile web 364 went on to Pornhub 4,509 went on to BBC 3,048 went on to Ebay 1,264 went on to TFL

  39. A day in the life of XX borough... Where people go at different points of day Who goes where? Profile by individual/geo-demographics Who never leaves? What media do they look at, generally and about local issues? Can you trigger interaction when residents go to particular places/do particular things? Can this be linked to other data?

  40. In conclusion... There is definitely a crisis of trust in political institutions… …not really affecting local government – yet Most haven’t noticed cuts yet – a real credit to public services and councils But fearful about the future for services, and for themselves Criticism of local government not working for central government – but opinions likely to shift more as people notice change Need to understand your whole population, generational differences increasingly important... Huge opportunities from technology to understand behaviours and interact more Good luck...

  41. Thank you Bobby.duffy@ipsos.com @BobbyIpsosMORI

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