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TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella

TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella. LAM EPS. Many Ongoing Developments Perturbations on the Initial Conditions & Blending with larger scale perturbations by the driving larger scale system. Model perturbations Change of parameter settings Stochastic Physics Multi-physics Multi-Model

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TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella

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  1. TIGGE LAM ReportTiziana Paccagnella WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  2. LAM EPS Many Ongoing Developments • Perturbations on the Initial Conditions &Blending with larger scale perturbations by the driving larger scale system. • Model perturbations • Change of parameter settings • Stochastic Physics • Multi-physics • Multi-Model • Developments on surface perturbations • Going toward Convective-Permitting LAM EPS • LAM EPS and DA WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  3. WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  4. Restructuring of the Panel The Panel has been (and is being) restructured trying to make it more efficient at Regional level. New members have been asked to join the Panel to engage people personally involved in LAM EPS and then in the position to make plans and to take commitments. The Panel has been divided in regional sub-groups: N. America Josh Hacker is the Focal Point Asia Jing Chen is the focal Point Europe Tiziana Paccagnella is the focal point S. America and Southern Hemisphere and Africa will be formalized later on. WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  5. NA sub-group WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  6. TIGGE LAM Plan Following the last JSC meeting, the TIGGE LAM plan has been drafted and it is now under finalization. The present version of the plan is available at: http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/ WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  7. TIGGE Plan: Scientific Issues • Mesoscale predictability • Mesoscale model inadequacy • Interactions between larger scale perturbations given by the driving global systems and “local” perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS. • Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial conditions • Perturbations associated to soil/surface description • Cycling short-range uncertainty for initial perturbations • Multi Model EPS • Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS • Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS systems and their benefit over restricted integration domains versus the combination of lower resolution ensemble systems • Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support the design of the future LAM EPS systems. • Biases in deterministic models and calibration • Verification methods • Assess the probability of rare meteorological events • Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications • LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key characteristics of a LAM EPS to best represent short-range forecast error co variances for use in DA? Still to be refined and better focussed Indication how to develop research to be included More contributions shouldcome thanks to the new regional structure of the Panel.

  8. TIGGE Plan: Scientific Issues • Mesoscale predictability • Mesoscale model inadequacy • Interactions between larger scale perturbations given by the driving global systems and “local” perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS. • Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial conditions • Perturbations associated to soil/surface description • Cycling short-range uncertainty for initial perturbations • Multi Model EPS • Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS • Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS systems and their benefit over restricted integration domains versus the combination of lower resolution ensemble systems • Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support the design of the future LAM EPS systems. • Biases in deterministic models and calibration • Verification methods • Assess the probability of rare meteorological events • Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications • LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key characteristics of a LAM EPS to best represent short-range forecast error co variances for use in DA? From 23 to 25 February 2001 (this week) Joint SRNWP Workshop on EPS and DA ARPA-SIMC Bologna

  9. TIGGE Plan: Actions / Activities • Action 0: Reorganization of the TIGGE LAM Panel • Action 1: Set-up of cross-working group discussion between TIGGE-LAM, the MWFR working group and the WGNE. • Action 2: Set-up of cross-working group discussion with the Verification Working Group and SERA. • Action 3: Definition of the key requirements for regional ensemble forecasting. • Action 4: Identification of possible Funding opportunities to support the development and implementation of the Regional activities. • Action 5: Activate link with major mesoscale applications (hydrology). • Action 5: Set up of the TIGGE-LAM Database • Action 6: TIGGE LAM Data Policy • Action 7: Implementation of regional observational dataset for objective verification of Mesoscale Deterministic and Ensemble forecasting. • Action 8: Definition of further HIW related specific products. • Action 9: Set up of specific projects and collaborations addressed to the specific scientific issues (e.g. EU projects, HYMEX, ) • Action 10: Coordinate the participation of LAM EPS groups to RDPs and FDPs. • Action 11: Define standards to exchange meteorological fields required as Initial and Boundary conditions – Interoperability • Action 12: Provide LAM EPS products in format compliant with GIFS-TIGGE directives WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  10. TIGGE LAM Planlinks with Hydrology European Flood Alert System (EFAS) (Contacts: Jutta Thielen and Ad de Roo) HEPEX (Contact: Jutta Thielen, John Schaake, Florian Pappenberger) HEPEX (Contact: Jutta Thielen, John Schaake, Florian Pappenberger) IMPRINTS (Contact: Daniel Sempere, Jutta Thielen) WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  11. Archiving Archiving of high priority parameters on regular lat/lon grids. • CMA is starting the archiving of TIGGE LAM HP parameters from CMA Regional system. • The archiving of European products at ECMWF has been slowed down due to other priorities at ECMWF. Archiving of TIGGE LAM products on their native grids • LAM EPS are going to run at the convective-permitting scale. Products on the native grids should be made available and tools to manage these data should be developed. As regards Europe, this task has been included into the GEO-WOW FP7 WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  12. HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products. The possibility to implement an European archive of high resolution precipitation analyses based on high density network data is being explored. Contacts are established with ECMWF and with other European groups and initiatives with the same objectives. WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  13. HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products. Present status Unofficial agreement with David Richardson and Anna Ghelli to start the implementation of the dataset at ECMWF. Anna Ghelli is already collecting data from the European local networks. WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  14. HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products. Present status Unofficial agreement with David Richardson and Anna Ghelli to start the implementation of the dataset at ECMWF. Anna Ghelli is already collecting data from the European local networks. Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe. A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice), Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). A cooperation has been set up toward the definition of a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to EU) This initiative should also link with other ongoing projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative) WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  15. HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products. Present status Unofficial agreement with David Richardson and Anna Ghelli to start the implementation of the dataset at ECMWF. Anna Ghelli is already collecting data from the European local networks. Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe. A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice), Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). A cooperation has been set up toward the definition of a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to EU) This initiative should also link with other ongoing projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative) EUMETNET meeting today and tomorrow at MeteoSwiss Zurich WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  16. HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products. Present status Unofficial agreement with David Richardson and Anna Ghelli to start the implementation of the dataset at ECMWF. Anna Ghelli is already collecting data from the European local networks. Required preliminary actions: Define the official agreement with ECMWF (waiting for an answer from D. Richardson) Write a letter to the data providers to ask their formal agreement . Fill gaps in the data already collected at ECMWF Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe. A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice), Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). A cooperation has been set up toward the definition of a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to EU) This initiative should also link with other ongoing projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative) EUMETNET meeting today and tomorrow at MeteoSwiss Zurich WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  17. Contribution to the definition of the GEO-WOW FP7 proposal Tiziana Paccagnella proposed two tasks to be included to this project proposal: 1st task: TIGGE LAM archive Extension of the TIGGE archive to include products from the several Limited Area Ensembles running operationally at the different centres in Europe. Products transmitted and archived on their native grid. 2nd task High Resolution precipitation analyses Implementation of a dataset based on data from european high density observational networks Due to the limited available funds, only the first task has been included. The second task should be carried on as a contribution of ECMWF to the TIGGE archive (see previous paragraph 4). WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  18. Link with the EUMETNET SRNWP Interoperability Programme Archiving of LAM EPS Products SRNWP Interoperability Interoperability: content and format of IC/BC TIGGE LAM Parameters and coding specifics taken as starting point Link : participation to the meetings and by e-mail Transmission of information for comments and feedbacks WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  19. Link with the EUMETNET/SRNWP interoperability Programme Gatwick closed due to snow WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  20. Link with the EUMETNET/SRNWP interoperability Programme Options • 1. …………… • 2. ……………… • 3. …………………… • 4. Extend the programme to deliver a solution for lateral boundary conditions for ensemble prediction systems. • 5. ……………………… • 6. ……………………….. This first phase is going to finish Brainstorming is started in december to evaluate if a request to have a second phase will be submitted The ET EPS and TIGGE LAM have been requested by Rachel North to express their opinions about the different possible options for phase two This week, European Lam EPS groups will meet in Bologna to We will discuss about this and also about the possible scientific cooperations also related to TIGGE WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  21. Link with ICT /CIMA First contact: DRIHMS (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study) First open consultation meeting. Genova 14 Oct. 2010. “Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting and TIGGE LAM” Tiziana Paccagnella WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  22. Link with ICT / CIMA Possibility to participate to Project to develop ICT tools to support EPS ??? WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  23. Link with SOCHI TP is soliciting European Contributions JH is doing the same in NA 1st workshop at SOCHI next week WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  24. Link with HYMEX 4th HYMEX workshop, Bologna, 8-10 June 2010 “HyMeX and TIGGE-LAM” Laurent Descamps, Andrea Montani, Tiziana Paccagnella TP is soliciting contributions to the LAM EPS activities Andrea Montani from the Panel is one of the two coordinators of LAM EPS activities WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  25. Some Concluding Remarks The Plan I hope we have the Plan finalized before July 2011. Actions will be regularly updated (?) WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  26. Some Concluding Remarks TIGGE LAM activities, even if planned , are generally very difficult to be concretized. The lack of devoted resources is one of the reasons but probably much more could be done, even without funds. One of the obstacle in stimulating coordinated actions among TIGGE LAM groups, is the difficulty to perceive the added value given by the cooperation mainly due to the sparseness and non homogeneity of LAM EPS initiatives. WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  27. Some Concluding Remarks TIGGE LAM was set up as a separate branch of TIGGE but now, to support its effective development, it is necessary to start its real integration in GIFS/ TIGGE whenever it is possible. This concept should be reflected in the GIFS plan with corresponding objectives and actions in the TIGGE LAM plan. WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

  28. Thank you! WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary 2011

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