TIGGE LAM PLAN Eighth meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group Geneva, 22 to 24 February 2010

1. TIGGE LAM PLAN Eighth meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group Geneva, 22 to 24 February 2010 Tiziana Paccagnella

2. CONTENT • Brief introduction • What has been done/ is being doing • Links and cooperations • Future • TIGGE LAM Plan

3. Brief introduction TIGGE LAM TIGGE-LAM was established to coordinate LAM EPS activities, to support research on this area and to identify and coordinate the LAM EPS contribution to TIGGE and to the GIFS system. TIGGE LAM activity is and will be developed by: • providing guidelines • coordinating activities • fostering research

4. (Metadata) Information about LAM EPS systems What has been done/ is being doing Information collected through a template based on the one developd for TIGGE (by Ken) About ten system on the TIGGE LAM web site

5. 25 systems on the list: • 7 N. America • 2 Africa • Asia • 12 Europe

6. What has been done/ is being doing Output parameter list defined GRIB2 coding adopted following TIGGE directives GRIB2 specifics defined Sub-set of HP parameters defined for verification/research/end users (i.e. hydrological applications) Archiving of LAM EPS Products

7. What has been done/ is being doing Output parameter list defined GRIB2 coding adopted following TIGGE directives GRIB2 specifics defined Sub-set of HP parameters defined for verification/research/end users (i.e. hydrological applications) HP parameters will be interpolated on a standard geographical lat/lon grid at 0,1° resolution HP parameters should be archived at the three TIGGE Archiving Centres, NCAR, ECMWF and CMA As regards the data access, the same policy adopted by TIGGE will be proposed with a reduction of the delay from 48 hours to 24 hours. Archiving of LAM EPS Products

8. What has been done/ is being doing • Activities toward archiving at ECMWF started at the end of 2008. • Some problems related to GRIB2 coding; now solved. • Hopefully few weeks from now. • Letter to the data providers: • A draft was written (based on the letter sent to ECMWF for TIGGE). • Letter sent to Dave Burridge. Archiving of LAM EPS Products

9. What has been done/ is being doing I was decided it is necessary to keep the best possible information content in the Initial/Boundary conditions required by LAM EPS systems. Initial/Boundary conditions should be provided on the original computational grid. Interoperability: content and format of IC/BC

10. What has been done/ is being doing Archiving of LAM EPS Products SRNWP Interoperability Project Interoperability: content and format of IC/BC TIGGE LAM Parameters and coding specifics taken as starting point Link : participation to the meetings and by e-mail Transmission of information fror comments and feedbacks

11. What has been done/ is being doing: Links and cooperations Chairs of the Thorpex Regional Committee have been contacted and keeped informed by e-mail Deeper contacts with: Thorpex Africa submission of Amaranth Proposal participation to the Trieste Meeting Thorpex Europe revision of the European THORPEX Plan

12. What has been done/ is being doing: Links and cooperations Good link with EUMETNET SRNWP in Europe: • with the SRNWP/Interoperability Programme • with the SRNWP/ET on Predictability and EPS about the EurEPS Programme under definition. Workshop in Bologna at the end of March. Link with Hymex: under development Cooperation programme with WG Mesoscale Forecasting under discussion > Contribution to the TIGGE LAM Plan

13. High resolution analiyses of Precipitation (and other parameters) HR Precipitation Analyses TIGGE DB TIGGE LAM DB Verification Package Joint WG Verif

16. High resolution analyses of Precipitation (and other parameters) HR Precipitation Analyses TIGGE DB TIGGE LAM DB Verification Package Joint WG Verif Barbara suggested to produce a set of analyses based on different available methologies: ECMWF / VERA (MAP D Phase)/ ETH This would give an estimate of the analysis error

17. High resolution analyses of Precipitation (and other parameters) HR Precipitation Analyses TIGGE DB TIGGE LAM DB Verification Package Joint WG Verif Contacts with Anna Ghelli Extension of the work she did with Laurie to include LAM EPS in europe Possibility to submit a Project to INTERREG IVC or to the 7th framework

18. Future actions Thanks to the experience gained during the first period of activity, it is clear that TIGGE LAM cannot coordinate on a global scale. Specific initiatives and applications must be organized at regional levels with strong links with the THORPEX Regional Committees. E.G. For each FDP, LAM EPS group should be invited to contribute.

19. Future : Reorganization of the TIGGE LAM Panel After the first period of activity, is now necessary to give a new structure to the Panel to facilitate the progress of TIGGE-LAM. The key points are: • To give more emphasis to the Regional component of TIGGE LAM and to facilitate the focus on regional activities. • To have Panel members who are in the position to give direct contributions to the activities. • To involve representatives of other working groups ?????

20. N.Am. Africa EU S.Am. Asia

21. TIGGE LAM regional sub-groups: better coordination with the Thorpex Regional Committee and with regional initiatives Hymex is one of these TIGGE LAM Plan Better focus on scientific issues and actions/activities GIFS FDP Regional Bottom up approach: better entrainment of the TIGGE LAM component. LAM EPS group should be asked to produce the same products when reasonable (integration area); TC tracks?, heavy precip. Set-up of cross-working group discussion and cooperation programmes (WG Mesoscale Research, WGNE, Verification, SERA,...) Future

22. TIGGE LAM Plan During the Monterey meeting, the Panel was requested by the WWRP JSC to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining specific activities related to these issues. The Plan is still in progress. After the completion of this plan, and the restructuring of the Panel, a TIGGE LAM workshop should be organized to discuss and address each of the Actions.

24. Some concepts • The main added value from LAM EPS in the future will be probably in the representation of phenomena at the convective-permitting scale • Models and EPS systems are constantly changing and evolving. What is not going to change so fast (neglecting climate change considerations) are the HIW types and TIGGE LAM should contribute to the definition of strategies and methodologies to improve their predictability. • The GIFS-TIGGE vision is focussed on the optimization of the use of Ensemble Forecasting to maximize the forecast skill. TIGGE LAM is intended to coordinate actions to evaluate which are the events whose predictability can be improved by the use of LAM EPS.

25. Some concepts • Going from global to LAM EPS, the process to represent forecast uncertainty is more complicated since larger scale perturbations interact with perturbations generated to represent smaller scale errors typical of LAM systems. • Many possibilities to generate and couple these perturbations are tractable and it is almost impossible to evaluate a-priori the best configurations of such complex systems. • This is an important reason to support coordinated scientific actions to facilitate the achievement of conclusive results.

26. TIGGE LAM Plan Foreword 1.Limited Area Ensemble Prediction and TIGGE-LAM 2.Relationship between the GIFS-TIGGE WG and TIGGE-LAM. 3.Scientific Issues 4.Actions & Activities References and reference documents

27. TIGGE Plan: Scientific Issues 3.1.Mesoscale predictability 3.2.Mesoscale model inadequacy 3.3.Interactions between larger scale perturbations given by the driving global systems and “local” perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS. 3.3.1.Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial conditions 3.3.2.Perturbations associated to soil/surface description 3.3.3.Cycling short-range uncertainty for inItial perturbations 3.3.4.Multi Model EPS 3.4.Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS 3.5.Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS systems and their benefit over restricted integration domains versus the combination of lower resolution ensemble systems 3.6.Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support the design of the future LAM EPS systems. 3.7.Biases in deterministic models and calibration 3.8.Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications 3.9.Verification methods 3.10.Assess the probability of rare meteorological events 3.11.LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key characteristics of a LAM EPS to best represent short-r range forecast error co variances for use in DA?

28. TIGGE Plan: Scientific Issues 3.1.Mesoscale predictability 3.2.Mesoscale model inadequacy 3.3.Competition and interaction between larger scale perturbations given by the driving global systems and “local” perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS. 3.3.1.Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial conditions 3.3.2.Perturbations associated to soil/surface description 3.3.3.Cycling short-range uncertainty for inItial perturbations 3.3.4.Multi Model EPS 3.4.Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS 3.5.Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS systems and their benefit over restricted integration domains versus the combination of lower resolution ensemble systems 3.6.Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support the design of the future LAM EPS systems. 3.7.Biases in deterministic models and calibration 3.8.Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications 3.9.Verification methods 3.10.Assess the probability of rare meteorological events 3.11.LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key characteristics of a LAM EPS to best represent short-range forecast error co variances for use in DA? Next steps ???: Some more work following this meeting Collection of remarks,comments and contribution from the Panel, from the LAM EPS groups, Contributions from the WG on Mesoscale Reserach the WG on verification SERA WGNE Contributions from the Regional TH. Comm.

29. TIGGE Plan: Actions / Activities • Action 0: Reorganization of the TIGGE LAM Panel - GLOBAL • Action 1: Set-up of cross-working group discussion between TIGGE-LAM, the MWFR working group and the WGNE. GLOBAL • Action 2: Set-up of cross-working group discussion with the Verification Working Group and SERA. GLOBAL • Action 3: Definition of the key requirements for regional ensemble forecasting. REGIONAL • Action 4: Identification of possible Funding opportunities to support the development and implementation of the Regional activities. GLOBAL - -REGIONAL • Action 5: Activate link with major mesoscale applications (hydrology). REGIONAL

30. TIGGE Plan: Actions / Activities • Action 5:Set up of the TIGGE-LAM Database GLOBAL - -REGIONAL • Action 6: TIGGE LAM Data Policy GLOBAL - -REGIONAL • Action 7: Implementation of regional observational dataset for objective verification of Mesoscale Deterministic and Ensemble forecasting. REGIONAL • Action 8: Definition of further HIW related specific products. REGIONAL

31. TIGGE Plan: Actions / Activities • Action 9: Set up of specific projects and collaborations addressed to the specific scientific issues (e.g. EU projects, HYMEX, ) GLOBAL - - REGIONAL • Action 10: Coordinate the participation of LAM EPS groups to RDPs and FDPs. GLOBAL - - REGIONAL • Action 11: Define standards to exchange meteorological fields required as Initial and Boundary conditions – Interoperability GLOBAL • Action 12: Provide LAM EPS products in format compliant with GIFS-TIGGE directives GLOBAL

32. Suggestions? Comments? ………….………………

33. Some concepts • A real advancement on Mesoscale forecasting must be achieved by a strong coordination and cooperation with the WWRP Mesoscale Research working Group and with the WGNE group. • Research activities must be defined to allow all the numerical experimentation which is necessary to test and improve LAM also addressing regional peculiarities associates to the specific HIW types. • As already well ongoing for TIGGE and the GIFS, it is also essential to have a close link with the Verification WG and with SERA to asses the quality and the added value coming from LAM EPS.