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Mn Futurists Meeting

Analyzing the global megacrisis from different viewpoints and presenting 4 scenarios from disaster to maturity. Participate in a thought-provoking survey evaluating the likelihood of these scenarios. Expert opinions and relevant videos provided.

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Mn Futurists Meeting

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  1. January 23, 2010 TechCast MegaCrisis Survey Nature Videos - Global Boundries Discussion of Desired Future Presentation by David Grider Mn Futurists Meeting

  2. MN Futurists Jan. 23, 2010 • Survey on 4 Scenarios from Disaster to Maturity • The global megacrisis of climate change, peak oil & energy shortages, environmental pollution, armed conflict, terrorism, and other threats to the social order are analyzed from two differing viewpoints. Then we invite you to respond to a survey evaluating the likelihood of 4 scenarios running from most pessimistic to most optimistic. This is the biggest issue of our time, and we think you will find it - the survey - thought-provoking. • http://www.techcast.org/Commentary.aspx?ID=181

  3. DECLINE TO DISASTER The world fails to react with disastrous consequences. Indecision reigns due to too many choices, too many entrenched interest groups, and too few resources to make needed changes. Huge government deficits persist, leading to diminished public services and an inability to make crucial transition investments. Many parts of the world suffer the loss of functioning civilization Scenario One:

  4. Scenario Two • MUDDLING DOWN Half-way, inadequate actions cause civilization to enter a high-tech dark age. Political stalemates, lack of resources, and ignorance about the complexity of the problem result in only modest changes in financial systems, governance, energy, and education. The promise of new technologies is only partly met, while pollution and population pressures continue.

  5. Scenario Four • MUDDLING UP Governments and corporations act slowly, but increasing knowledge and mounting threats spur continued efforts. The sense of urgency builds as problems increase, so public attitudes shift enough to favor needed changes, and reasonably good leadership is able to provide guidance. There are minor disasters along the way but little that is catastrophic.

  6. RISE TO MATURITY The transition to a new global order is made smoothly and quickly. There is a rapidly growing realization that the Earth is a precious living system requiring human care. Governments and corporations react wisely and with determination, and they are supported by the majority of people. Scenario Five

  7. 1 How severe is the potential threat posed by the Global Megacrisis? RESULTS % Catastrophic. 18 Severe. 62 Bad. 13 Overblown. 4 Don’t Know. 2 TechCast Expert Opinions

  8. 12 MN Futurists (average rating): TechCast: 1) DECLINE TO DISASTER 27% 24% 2) MUDDLING DOWN 23% 39% 3) MUDDLE 27% -- 4) MUDDLING UP 16% 32% 5) RISE TO MATURITY 7% 14% Rated Likelihood of Each Scenario

  9. “Surviving the Anthropocene: The Great Challenges of the 21st Century” Will Steffen (Viewed parts 1 & 2)‏ http://www.stockholmresilience.org/seminarandevents/seminarandeventvideos/willsteffenthegreatchallengesofthe21stcentury.5.aeea46911a3127427980003219.html Videos

  10. Figure 6 Estimate of quantitative evolution of control variables for seven planetary boundaries from pre-industrial levels to the present (Page 22)‏ Accessed from: http://www.stockholmresilience.org/download/18.8615c78125078c8d3380002197/ES-2009-3180.pdf Nature Magazine Article

  11. Handout (short form)‏ http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/fig_tab/461472a_T1.html#figure-title Full Version Table 1 Pages 8-9 on link from previous slide Chart of Planitary Limits

  12. “Tipping Points” Jonathan Foley http://www.stockholmresilience.org/planetary-boundaries Videos

  13. (video not shown due to technical problems) Resiliancy - C. S. (Buzz) Holling http://www.stockholmresilience.org/seminarandevents/seminarandeventvideos/buzzhollingfatheroftheresiliencetheory.5.aeea46911a3127427980003713.html Videos

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