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The Futurists

Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging Media Cynthia Calongne, The Institute for Advanced Studies. The Futurists. Acheron LV426. Lyr Lobo’s Experimental Design island Futuring and Innovation Usability and Interaction Advanced Game Design Robotics

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The Futurists

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  1. Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging Media Cynthia Calongne, The Institute for Advanced Studies The Futurists

  2. Acheron LV426 Lyr Lobo’s Experimental Design island Futuring and Innovation Usability and Interaction Advanced Game Design Robotics Software Requirements Engineering Software Design Systems Engineering Methods The modern classroom

  3. Meeting minds - the value of social media, futuring and innovation in a virtual world

  4. Social Media and Co-Laboratories of Thought • Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions • Influences on potential innovations • Technology, economics, culture, ethics, legal, political • Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects • Social media culture shift – consumers become producers • Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis • Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration

  5. The one Web We are the computer From Ted Talks, 2007 [8]

  6. At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmill from a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation system William Kamkwamba’s windmill – Ted Talks [1]

  7. Sustainability Changing viewpoints Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2]

  8. A train moves down a narrow track as tables and shops recede into the walls. In a matter of seconds, a thriving marketplace emerges. [2]

  9. Harmony Cities are green Stewart Brand on Ted Talks Bangkok train – co-existing with the marketplace [2]

  10. The Influence of Social Media Community Turbo Tax chat 40% of customer questions were answered by other customers with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years Disaster Response May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake 90,000 lost, schools destroyed

  11. Broadcasting the news as it is happening [4] Warning! Sensitive content on the next slide

  12. First Response When every minute counts [3]

  13. News in China Twitter and Flickr May 2008 Sichuan earthquake School buildings not built to code [4] Children lost from single child families

  14. Clay Shirky – How social media can make history “The tools don’t get socially interesting until they get technologically boring.” [4] • Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheap • Most of the media is no longer produced by professionals [4] • Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook • - The influence of social media • Photos and Twitter’s micro blogging • news broadcast real-time information on the aftermath of China’s earthquakes • June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to • Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days • before the anniversary of the • Tiananmen Square protests Consumers become producers The same tools support them. People listening all over the world Twitter announced the quake first During the previous quake, China announced it 3 months after it happened. The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4]

  15. Why do things work that way? Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5] In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use http://

  16. Characteristics Structured approach Organized Firms, universities Feedback loops Chief strategists (MITI) Micromanagement ERATO projects Directing Japanese R&D investments Bottom-up view, begins with Firms Universities, research institutes National associations Long term vision Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC Long term technology forecasts Science & Tech Agency Institute of Future Technology Economic Planning Agency JICST Japan’s Technology Forecasts From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]

  17. Evolution Scientific Discovery Inventions Science Fiction Futurology Tech Forecasting Think Tanks Rand Corporation Forecasters Forecast International Futurists Einstein Inventors Jules Verne H.G. Wells Herman Kahn Dr. Strangelove www.rand.org/ www.forecastinternational.com/ Technology Forecasters From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]

  18. Think Tanks Futurist, nuclear scientist, and systems theorist Predicted the rise of Japan as a world power Rand Corporation, 1948 The Hudson Institute, 1961

  19. Technique Delphi method Nominal group Case study S-Curve Correlation analysis Lead-user analysis Analytic hierarchy Systems dynamics Cross-impact analysis Relevance trees Scenario writing Description Brainstorming Delphi - leader Analogous problems Looking beyond trends Past to future tech Leading edge users Forces influencing development Dynamic relationships model Interrelated future events Goal trees & probability Alternate future views Major Forecasting Techniques From p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]

  20. Nuclear explosives for excavation & power Weather and climate control More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior Human hibernation – months to years Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel Undersea installations and colonies Forecasts by Herman Kahn From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan

  21. Automated grocery and department stores Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane tasks Chemical methods for improving learning and memory Greater use of underground buildings Very low cost buildings for home and business use Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo Inexpensive road-free transportation Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at night Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2 From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan

  22. Global Learning Forum Research consortium Researchers and game designers - Explore the potential - Imagine breakthrough ideas - Create transformations New horizons in game simulation and virtual world research Blending social media and virtual worlds This is not your grandmother’s internet

  23. Quantum Computing Research Matt Purkeypile on a Practical Quantum Computer Programming Framework [6]

  24. Gazing Into the Future • Web science research initiative • Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media • Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web engineering • For more information, visit: • What is the Web Science Initiative • http://webscience.org/ • Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world • http://webscience.org/wiki/Curriculum • The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation • http://tw.rpi.edu/wiki/Main_Page • http://tw.rpi.edu/launch/

  25. Resources • Teaching using emerging media • http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/ • Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds • http://www.slideshare.net/lyrlobo/presentations • Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research • http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/global-learning-forum-event-tour.html • http://animoto.com/play/giF9IkshVTXZ3bewYUsXnA • http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/game-simulation-tour-in-second-life.html • http://animoto.com/play/ktooen8b0XqwLp6HnNEGtA • http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/animoto-video-second-life-summer-09.html • http://animoto.com/play/z2TLLCwEoOt2qonSa5S5Gw • Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video • http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-music-changes-video.html • Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music • http://animoto.com/play/15T3PngF3l68010ryw24SQ • Remix http://animoto.com/play/joPGETsdYQBdcLqIlCwTkQ • Questions? Contact • Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email calongne@pcisys.net • Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo Lyr Lobo in Second Life

  26. References • [1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill • http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html • [2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’ • http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html • 1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week! • [3] Kdingflickr’sphotostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years • http://www.flickr.com/photos/hzdkl/tags/2008chinasbiggestearthquakein32years/ • [4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history • http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html • [5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed http://tinyurl.com/yhdeo5qon Berners-Lee • http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6872873.ece • [6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove • http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html • [7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predications. Wiley, New York. • [8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web. • http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

  27. Futuring and Innovation at Colorado Technical University Matthew Purkeypile Brent Wilson David Graves Maurice Dawson Benjamin Herr Will Henry Carlton Lawrence Katherine Moore Anne Sempa Tremayne Porter Acknowledgements

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