1 / 12

The Studies

The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election Studies Richard Wyn Jones & Roger Scully Cardiff, 14 th January 2011. The Studies. The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496) The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625). Outline of Today’s Session. Purpose of Today

burt
Download Presentation

The Studies

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election StudiesRichard Wyn Jones & Roger ScullyCardiff, 14th January 2011

  2. The Studies • The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496) • The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625)

  3. Outline of Today’s Session • Purpose of Today • Aims of the Studies • Method, Research Design & Timetable • Content of the Surveys • Discussion

  4. Purpose of Today • Raising Profile and Impact of the Studies • Draw on Expertise to Improve the Studies • Maximise value of the Studies for the research community

  5. Purpose of the Studies: WRS • Understanding Referendum Voting Behaviour: Why vote? Why vote Yes / No? - Impact of Party Cues - National Identities & Sentiments - Performance Politics • Impact of the campaign on the referendum outcome • Broader contributions to design/conduct of referendum studies? • Good value and high impact study

  6. Purpose of the Studies: WES • Understanding Devolved Election Voting Behaviour: - Electoral participation - Vote Choice - Theories of Voting: Valence & the Three-Wales Model • Impact of devolved election campaigns • Public attitudes to devolution: - Structure and consistency of public preferences - Performance assessments and relationship to fundamental attitudes - Effect of attitudes to devolution on devolved election voting behaviour • Value, impact, and continuity with previous studies

  7. Method & Research Design WRS & WES deploy similar methods & designs: - Sample of voters (fieldwork: YouGov) - Pre and Post waves, with panel data - Pre: sample of c.2000; drawn on ‘rolling’ basis through 30 days prior to referendum / election (ie. c.500 per week) - Post: after referendum / election, all ‘Pre’ wave respondents approached; ‘top-up’ element to raise overall Post sample to 2000

  8. Timetable: WRS January Consultation event in Cardiff on survey content End-Jan Finalisation, pre- & post-referendum questionnaires; WRS/WES Website Feb – 2nd March Pre-referendum wave fieldwork (30 days) 3rd March REFERENDUM HELD March Post-referendum wave fieldwork June Cardiff Seminar on Findings July London Seminar; Data placed on website September Deposit of final datasets with UK Data Archive

  9. Timetable: WES January Consultation event in Cardiff on survey content March Finalisation, pre- & post-election questionnaires April – 4th May Pre-election wave fieldwork (30 days) 5th May ELECTION HELD May Post-election wave fieldwork September Cardiff Seminar on Findings; Data placed on website & deposited with UK Data Archive October London Seminar

  10. The Surveys, 1 • Drafts in place for Pre waves for WRS and (almost) WES • Many, but far from all, Pre questions also to be asked in Post waves. Post waves to have room for additional questions / subjects • Likely additional subjects for Post waves: • Experience of voting in the referendum / election • Attitudes to the process of voting • The AV referendum

  11. The Surveys, 2: WRS Pre Wave (Draft) Sections of Survey: • Media consumption & interest in politics • Referendum Voting: likelihood to vote & vote intention • Campaign perceptions • Perceptions of referendum vote implications • Political issues & govt performance • Attitudes to parties & leaders • Attitudes to devolution • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments, NAW voting intention, past vote recall • Political knowledge quiz

  12. The Surveys, 3: WES Pre Wave (Draft) Sections of Survey: • Media consumption & interest in politics • Voting in the NAW election: likelihood to vote, vote intention, past vote recall • Campaign perceptions • Political issues & govt performance • Attitudes to parties & leaders • Attitudes to devolution • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments • Political knowledge quiz

More Related