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Forecasting during the SOP1-2

Forecasting during the SOP1-2. Forecasting Forecast Sub-Group of the AOC/ST2 J-P Lafore , D. Parker (Leeds U.), C. Thorncroft (SUNY - US), Z. Mumba, A. Kamga, M.C. Dufresne (ACMAD), A. Assam (ASECNA), E. Afiesimama (Nigerian Met S), Diongue (Senegelese Met S), A. Beljaars (ECMWF),

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Forecasting during the SOP1-2

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  1. Forecasting during the SOP1-2 Forecasting Forecast Sub-Group of the AOC/ST2 J-P Lafore , D. Parker (Leeds U.), C. Thorncroft (SUNY - US), Z. Mumba, A. Kamga, M.C. Dufresne (ACMAD), A. Assam (ASECNA), E. Afiesimama (Nigerian Met S), Diongue (Senegelese Met S), A. Beljaars (ECMWF), S. Milton (UK Met O), W. Thiaw (NOAA)

  2. PLAN • Forcasting requirements • Organization • Workplan • Rosters • Briefing • Tools and methods • RETIM-Afrique  Synergie, MSG • AOC-Web site • Nowcasting • Main issues to be solved

  3. 1. Forecasting requirements 1. Operational needs: • Provide the forecastsof key aspects AOC decisions • Help to plan IOPs and relevant observation strategies • Security (aircraft protection) • Answer to PIs and platforms needs 2. Contribute to the science: • Evaluate the skill of models • Predictability • Feed the scientific discussion at AOC based on a description of the WAM system at all scales and for all its components  Review of the TT8 implementation plan: • Briefing schedule must be refined: • Lack of nowcasting requirements • Flights concerning MCSs: takeoff time, poor forecast skill…

  4. 2. Organization: Planning 15 Preparatory Forecast Meeting Forecast Training Workshop 25 Forecast Team 1 Forecast Team 2 Forecast Team 3 Jan Feb Ma Apr May June July Aug Sept Dec SOP1-2 SOP0 1. Preparatory Meeting:15-22 March • Participants: ACMAD, ASECNA, MF 2. Training Workshop:22May-2June • Priority on practicals • Funded by AMMA-EU 3. Forecasting Team at ACMAD:1st May-15Sep. • Funding not secured (~30k€) • ~12 African forecasters from ~10 countries • 3 periods: Rosters of 5 Forecasters for periods 1-3 6 Forecasters for period 2 • + Forecasting resource persons from ACMAD • + Forecast Scientific Support

  5. 2. Organization: Schedule - Tasks ECMWF Global NWP Availability by RETIM-Afrique A-Tropique UK ARPEGE B0 On request B0 On request Daily Rosters of Forecasters Shifts ? Period 1-3 Briefing B1 Forecast D+2, D+4 B2 preparation Monitor forecasts (D+1) Collaboration with airport/Nowcasting Daily Weather report Evaluation Report for D-2 Analysis D-1, D Forecast D, D+1 B1 preparation TASKS Briefing >D+1 B2 16? Briefing D+1 B1 07? Day D 00 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 Daily Rosters of Forecasters Shifts Period 2

  6. 3. Tools -Methods • Synergie Forecasting System (MF) • 4 Stations at ACMAD • Fed with NWP products + MSG with the RETIM link • AOC-Web site: • VSAT internet link at ACMAD • Reports, quicklooks, NWP, diagnostics, research models… • In construction: Medias-France, CNRM • MCS tracking: RDT from SAF-Nowcasting • Synthetic analysis • Main features on a single synthetic map for analysis and forecasts • WASA at 06, 18: West Afr. Synthetic Analysis • WASF at 06, 18: West Afr. Synthetic Forecast

  7. Dry Air ITF 3. Synthetic analysis: example HL AEJ TEJ

  8. NCEP Toulouse AOC-Web Leeds U. Others? Morocco CEH SUNY ECMWF UK Met O IPSL Météo-France CESBIO Etc… RETIM-Afrique AOC-Web ACMAD Forecasters Team (2) AOC Niamey Airport ASECNA IRD DMN Niger NWP Centers Data flows and Web sites Research Centers ftp Operational Forecasts + Analysis Minimum set of Fields Diagnostics Indexes Specific Models runs Analysis Diagnostics Indexes… VSAT internet Rule Save communication with Niger! internet Gourma Super Site Dakar? SOP3 Ouagadougou Benin Super Site

  9. PIs contribution To provide Quick Looks AOC-Web Sitehttp://aoc.amma-international.org

  10. Forecasting activities Plan VSAT 1st Development 2nd Development Version 1 Version 2 Version 3 TASKS • New products integration: MEDIAS • Strong collaboration with PIs and producers Coordination: JP Lafore Evaluation by producers and users 15 Preparatory Forecast Meeting Forecast Training Workshop 25 Forecast Team 1 Forecast Team 2 Forecast Team 3 Jan Feb Ma Apr May June July Aug Sept Dec SOP1-2 SOP0 AOC-Web development Plan

  11. 4. Nowcasting A subgroup (ASECNA+CNRM) works on this issue The main points are: • Definition and setup of a procedure for the nowcasting to guide flights • 3 persons team at Airport:on request Forecaster + PI at ground +Air controler • Tools: MSG products • Communication issue with aircrafts? • Praticals will be elaborated to train forecasters at airport  collaboration with pilots and aircraft PIs

  12. On the use of Tracking algorithms in AMMA MCS tracking from Meteosat IR  2 applications • Nowcasting trajectories + main characteristics: stage, speed, surface, duration… • See AMMA-SAT web site: • Will be put on AOC-Web • Climatologie of MCSs: Available on request • Identification of different types of MCSs (4 classes) • Documentation over 8 years:  SOP preparation • Examples: Nbr of MCSs for a given period and location Daily distribution of MCS passage…

  13. 5. Main issues to be solved Budget • Not secured for SOP (~30k€) current actions Nowcasting • Communication issue • Define a procedure • Work on case studies  Collaboration between PI, pilots, Forecast group Briefing Time? • Discussed yesterday  must be finalized AOC-Web development MEDIAS + CNRM • Collaboration with Pis  provide Quick looks (AOC coordination)  provide specifics products • Coordination by JP Lafore • Mirror site at other site? (Ouaga., Dakar) Still a lot of work! • Organize the Forecasters team • Finalize methodes  practical • Prepare the Training Workshop (22 May – 2nd June)

  14. 2. Organization: Briefings • Crucial issue to be discussed • Morning briefing B1 07UTC ( 8:00Loc) • Afternoon briefing B2 16UTC (17:00Loc) • B1 implies the FT to start work around 2UTC • B2 seems too late • B0 specific briefing at ACMAD early in the morning • At what time is the briefing for periods without aircrafts (late morning or early afternoon?)

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