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Tapani Koskela Finnish Meteorological Institute tapani.koskela@fmi.fi

Elevated UV irradiances in 2011. 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011. Tapani Koskela Finnish Meteorological Institute tapani.koskela@fmi.fi. Monitoring network Finland South Finland North Conclusions and challenges. Erythemal UV.

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Tapani Koskela Finnish Meteorological Institute tapani.koskela@fmi.fi

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  1. Elevated UV irradiances in 2011 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011 Tapani Koskela Finnish Meteorological Institute tapani.koskela@fmi.fi • Monitoring network • Finland South • Finland North • Conclusions and challenges

  2. Erythemal UV Erythemal UV + spectral UV + total ozone 1. The UV monitoring network Sodankylä 67.4N 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions Sotkamo Tikkakoski Jokioinen 60.5N Helsinki Utö 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  3. 2. Finland South UVI=7 +120% 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  4. 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  5. 3. Finland North UVI=6 +84% 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  6. 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  7. 4. CONCLUSIONS • Suitable atmospheric conditions can enable an Arctic chemical ozone loss comparable to that of the Antarctica • Low ozone and snow covered surface lead to exceptionally high UV Index values • ”Why worry, we have a prediction of the O3 recovery” – Yes, and the challenge is that … 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  8. the challenge… • We tend to believe in a positive forecast and suspect the negative one, only • Anyone suspecting a positive forecast is at least considered dishonest • No forecast is ever 100% right • Every forecast has an uncertainty, often ignored 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  9. shift by 15 years ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION, CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES… THE RECOVERY OF O3 ? Forecast 2002 pre-1980 level Forecast 2006 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions Montreal Protocol 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  10. ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION, CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES … THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RELIABLE MEASUREMENTS ARE NEEDED TO TELL HOW WRONG THE FORECASTS WERE. 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

  11. Thank you! 1. Network 2. South 3. North 4. Conclusions 13th Biennial Brewer Users Workshop hosted by CMA, Beijing, China, 12-16 September 2011

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