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Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland

Application of low-resolution ETA model data to provide guidance to high impact weather in complex terrain. Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland Juan Bazo, Gerardo Jacome & Luis Metzger Servicio National de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI), Peru.

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Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland

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  1. Application of low-resolution ETA model data to provide guidance to high impact weather in complex terrain Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland Juan Bazo, Gerardo Jacome & Luis Metzger Servicio National de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI), Peru

  2. Co-operation between FMI and SENAMHI Institutional development • Among the items: • Forecast verification (training, application development: an entry level verification system) • Post-processing of NWP output (training, application development: testing of Kalman filtering for NWP data) Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  3. EUMETCAL training tools used Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  4. User-interface for the verifcation system at SENAMHI Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  5. Introduction • Peruvian ETA-model data is available for guidance at Peruvian Hydro-meteorological service (SENAMHI). The application of rather low resolution (22 km grid) data is not straight forward in complex terrain in terms of topography, climatic zones and sharp land-sea gradient. • The applicability of the data is evaluated and if some problems are encountered a solution will be searched. So far data has been partly verified and tests with Kalman filter have started. The test data includes maximum and minimum temperature. • Another focus is the heavy precipitation in Machu Picchu area resulting flooding and danger to life and property. Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  6. Data • ETA-model • Resolution 22 km • 18 vertical levels • Output 6 h interval up to 72 h • Kain Frish cumulus parameterization • the GFS global model data is used for the lateral boundaries • No data assimilation is made • Test data periods: temperature 2009-2010 • Precipitation 2010 • Observations (21 stations) • Tumbes • Piura • Huánuco • Pucallpa • Lima • Andahuaylas • Cuzco • Tacna • Chiclayo • Chimbote • Cajamarca • Tarapoto • Yurimaguas • Iquitos • Tingo Maria • Trujillo • Ayacucho • Puerto Maldonado • Arequipa • Juliaca • Pisco Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  7. Methods – post-processing/Kalman filter • Only for temperature forecasts: • Two state parameters • TKalman = B1 + B2 * TETA • Optimized estimation of measurement noise R and system noise Q Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  8. Methods - verification • For temperature forecasts: • ME (Mean Error) • RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) • HR (Hit Rate) (not shown) • Also other scores • For precipitation forecasts (categories): • B (Bias) • PC (Percent correct) • POD (Probability of Detection) • FAR (False Alarm Rate) • KSS (Kuipers Skill Score) • TS (Threat Score) • ETS (Equility Threat Score) • … Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  9. Stations in focus:Cusco 3399 m Pucallpa 154 m Andahuaylas 2866 m Huanuco 1859 m Lima 13 mTacna 452 m Machu Picchu Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  10. Temperature verification Cusco (near Machu Picchu) 3399 m

  11. Pucallpa 154m

  12. Andahuaylas 2866 m

  13. Huanuco 1859 m

  14. Lima 13 m

  15. Tacna 452 m

  16. Precipitation forecasts Machu Picchu area verification of ETA model Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  17. Machu Picchu 2010 Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  18. Categorical results: Machu Picchu 2010 Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

  19. Conclusions • The preliminary results indicate that ETA model has problems with temperature forecasts in most regions; in tropical rain forest, at mountains and near coastline affected by cold sea current. The application of Kalman filter was used to minimize systematic errors from the ETA-model and rather encouraging results was received. • For precipitation forecasts ETA model is not able to forecast higher precipitation amounts correctly • A higher resolution (e.g. WRF) NWP model would be a way to inprove the forecast quality in complex terrain Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger

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