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New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region Prospects For Electricity Generation

Explore the status, benefits, and policy options for new and renewable energy in APEC region. Learn about APERC's research activities on wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and hydro power.

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New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region Prospects For Electricity Generation

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  1. New and Renewable Energy in the APEC RegionProspects For Electricity Generation APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Twenty-Third Meeting 10-13 November 2004 Jaya Singam Rajoo

  2. Background Key findings of current study – NRE in APEC Region NRE’s Status in APEC Region Scenario analysis results Policy Options New Study - Renewable Electricity in APEC Region Objective Socio-economic benefits of NRE Indicators Outline Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  3. APEC Energy Ministers’ concern The significance of new and renewable energy has been stressed by the APEC Energy Ministers from the 1st Energy Minister’s Meeting held in Sydney, Australia in 1996 to the 6th Meeting held in Manila 2004 “Energy diversification broadens our choice of energy sources and technologies and… increased development and deployment of renewable energy technologies.” APEC Energy Minister’s Meeting, Manila, 2004 Background Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  4. Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (1998) Sustainable Electricity Supply Options for the APEC Region (2001) Making the Clean Development Mechanisms Work (2001) Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (2002) Alternative Development Scenarios for Electricity and Transport to 2020 (2002) APERC’s Research Activities related to NRE Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  5. Scope • Wind • Solar – Photovoltaics • Geothermal • Biomass • Small Hydro Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  6. Wind – current status • The cost of wind power in favourable wind regime declined by 47% between 1990 and 2000 and may decline another 38% by 2010 • Wind capacity grew 14% annually in APEC and 33% per year globally from 1993-2003 • Highest annual growth in New Zealand with 67% (albeit small base) followed by Japan-54%, Australia-44%, Canada-32% and China-29% Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  7. Photovoltaics – current status • Annual growth rate of about 33% from 1971-2000 • Costs are still very high (~ US$0.60 per kWh) but are expected to decline substantially to US$0.13 in 2025 & US$0.09 by 2050 • Mostly utilised for off-grid applications (e.g. highway lighting, remote villages) except for Japan & EU economies • Distributed rooftop applications – huge in Japan and will be the next major market by reducing balance of system costs by combining PV modules with roof tiles Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  8. Geothermal Installed Capacity GW Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  9. Hydro Power Source: WEC – Survey of Energy Resources 2001. Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  10. Scenario Analysis – Reference Scenario Wind would remain the fastest growing technology Biomass takes substantial share Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  11. SCENARIO ANALYSIS 40% NRE SHARE BY 2050 EARLY NRE STARTING (2010) LATE NRE STARTING (2020) Impact on fuel and CO2 emissions Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  12. SCENARIO AnalysisPOWER GENERATION BY FUEL Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  13. SCENARIO AnalysisPOWER GENERATION BY FUEL Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  14. SCENARIO ANALYSISGHG EMISSIONS Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  15. SCENARIO ANALYSIS US$ 260 billion Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  16. Conclusions MARKET DRIVEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY COAL GAS OIL UNDER DEVELOPMENT FULLY COMMERCIAL BIOMASS POLICY DRIVEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY HYDRO GEOTHERMAL WIND PV NUCLEAR Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  17. Policy Options • Demand Pull Strategies • Financial Incentives • Market Facilitation and Investment • Rural Electrification Policy • Distributed Generation Policy Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  18. Policy Options • Demand Pull Strategies • Renewable Portfolio Standards • Non-Fossil-Fuel-Obligation (UK, 1990-1997) • Feed-in Tariffs (resulted in 8,500MW of installed wind from 1991-2001 in Germany) • Green certificate (US, Australia, Japan, UK, Denmark & Belgium) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  19. Policy Options • Financial incentives • Subsidies and rebates (Sunshine Programme -Japan, “Million solar roofs”- US) • Tax relief (Investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation, production tax credits, property tax incentives, personal income tax incentives, sales tax incentives, pollution tax exemptions, etc) • Grants • Loans (varies in amount – residential, commercial and industrial) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  20. Policy Options • Market facilitation and investment • Carbon tax, System Benefits Charge • NRE access laws (allows property owners to access NRE resources) • Infrastructure policy • Government procurement • Public awareness programme Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  21. Policy Options • Rural Electrification Policy • Energy Service Concession • Microcredit and Rural Business Development • Line extension Analyses Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  22. Policy Options • Distributed Generation Policies • Real-time pricing • Net metering • Interconnection Regulation Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  23. Conclusions • Main Enabling policies • Demand pull strategy – RPS, Feed-in-Tariff… • Financial Incentives – Various incentives/subsidy, tax relief, grants, loans… • Distributed generation – net metering, real time pricing… • Market facilitation – SBC, carbon tax, government procurement… NRE resources – to include in national energy balance Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  24. Conclusions • Developing economies : • i) adopting innovative financing mechanisms e.g. Worldbank/GEF PERMER in Argentina • ii) developing local manufacturing capacity for components of NRE technology like PVs, e.g. China, India, Thailand… • iii) removing/reducing subsidies on fossil fuels to improve NRE’s competitiveness Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  25. Conclusions • iv) improve legal and regulatory framework to address intellectual property rights issues, as well as improve the tax system to encourage developed economies to transfer NRE technology Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  26. Part II Renewable Electricity in the APEC Region Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  27. Objectives and Scope • Assessing the real cost of electricity from renewable sources and conventional fuels • Quantifying externalities - emissions from electricity generation and its impacts (Health, Air pollution, Water and land pollution, Thermal pollution, Global warming ) • Different types of subsidy received by conventional energy producer and its impacts Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  28. Key Issues • Real Costs of electricity ? • Subsidy for NRE & conventional energy • Socio-economic benefits of renewable energy • Externalities – Negative impacts of fossil fuel combustion • Measuring externalities • Modelling renewable energy Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  29. Indicators Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  30. Indicators Source :WRI, Indicator Framework Paper, 2003 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

  31. The cost of annual energy subsidies (1995-98, $US billion) Notes: a) Subsidies for electricity in OECD countries have been attributed to fossil fuels according the shares. b) Subsidies from non-payments and bail out operations have not been attributed to energy sources. Source: de Moor, 2001, and WRI, CAIT (for GDP numbers) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

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