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EU ENERGY POLICY

EU ENERGY POLICY Context and Challenges Objectives, 2020 Targets, RM 2050, GP 2030, Growth and Jobs…. MARC DEFFRENNES DG ENERGY. EU energy challenges. 1. Sustainability (= Env Protection: GHG, +…)

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EU ENERGY POLICY

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  1. EU ENERGY POLICY Context and ChallengesObjectives, 2020 Targets, RM 2050, GP 2030, Growth and Jobs… MARC DEFFRENNES DG ENERGY

  2. EU energy challenges 1. Sustainability (= Env Protection: GHG, +…) 2. Security of energy supply (ia stability and reliability of electricity supply…) 3. Competitiveness (incl "affordability for final consumer")In which order ??? To tackle these challenges, EU needs: • an ambitious set of energy efficiency measures • a proper mix of a wide range of low carbon energy sources (+ large investments!!!)

  3. Energy policy for Europe • Integrated energyand climate policyObjective: 80 to 95 % GHG reduction in 2050 • Year 2020 targets (2007): 3x20% AND SET Plan – needs 80 Billion Euros over 10 y • 2ndStrategic Energy Review (2008)CO2 free electricity in 2050 • Energy Strategy 2020 (2010): 5 priorities (EE, Market Operation and Infrastructures, Innovation SET Plan, Safety and Security, International Cooperation)

  4. Energy Strategy 2020 and MFF(ia!): • - PM: EERP and NER300: 1.5 BEuros for CCS and Wind + 1.2 BEuros for 43 RES Projects- Critical Infrastructures – ia energy networksEC proposed 10 Beuros – reduced in Council proposal- SET Plan:H2020 EC proposed 6.5 BEuros for Energy + Euratom - Regional/Structural FundsEnergy and Innovation are prioritiesNEEDS ARE MUCH BIGGER - global endeavour: need MS and Industry on board… INVESTMENTS !!! Will the "Market" deliver ???

  5. Energy Roadmap 2050 • Adopted by the Commission in December 2011; Presidency conclusions in June 2012 • An exploration of possible futures for the EU energy system: 7 scenarios • Diverse Long-term Perspectives and Mixes • Discussion with Member States and stakeholders • A basis for policy action = regulatory framework and financing/investment policy

  6. Context: Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap (Mar 2011) Basis of scenarios 80% domestic GHG reduction in 2050 Efficient pathway: -25% in 2020 -40% in 2030 -60% in 2040 6

  7. 1 Business as usual (Common Reference Scenario) 1bis Current Policy Initiatives scenario 2 High Energy Efficiency 3 Diversified supply technologies 4 High Renewables 5 Delayed CCS 6 Low Nuclear Energy Roadmap 2050 - scenarios

  8. EU-27 resultsReference scenario: GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions 40 years back and ahead(1990 = 100)

  9. ResultsCurrent Policy initiatives scenario: Primary energy demand, savings from REF and carbon intensity Mtoe Carbon intensity

  10. Results Gross energy consumption: range in current trends and decarbonisation scenarios(in Mtoe) REF/CPI: effects of additional policies and updated assumptions Decarbonisation cases: effects from different policy focus / technology availability

  11. ResultsShare of electricity in final energy demand under current trends and with decarbonisation (in %) Range regarding decarbonisation scenarios FROM 3100 to 4800 TWh PA Range for current trends scenarios:

  12. ResultsImport dependency under current trends and decarbonisation in (%)

  13. ResultsRatio of energy system costs to GDP under current trends and decarbonisation (average over 2011-2050) * EU GDP = 15 Trillion Euros per year – 0.5% is 75 Billion Euros !!! per year

  14. Results: Shares in the energy mix

  15. Decarbonisation under global climate action is feasible; several pathways are possible and costs do not differ substantially from current trends Reduction of energy consumption through energy efficiency improvements All decarbonisation options can contribute: EE, RES, nuclear, CCS But Renewables increases a lot in all cases Electricity will play a greater role in energy supplies (20% of final energy demand today, almost 40% by 2050) also in areas such as transport and heating = 4800 TWh per year in 2050 Power generation almost carbon free by 2050 Electricity prices increase up to 2030 and slightly decline afterwards (besides the High RES scenario where electricity is 25% more expensive) Transition from high fuel / operational expenditure to high capital expenditure Reduced import dependency and external fuel bill Massive investments in generation capacity and grids to ensure stable and reliable energy supply Decarbonisation of the energy system: Some conclusions

  16. 75% 50% 25% 0% RES Gas Nuclear Oil Solid fuels 2005 Energy Roadmap 2050 – scenarios (2/2) Renewables move centre stage – but all fuels can contribute in the long-runDecarbonisation scenarios - fuel ranges (primary energy consumption in %) 2030 2050 75% 50% 25% 0% RES Gas Nuclear Oil Solid fuels 16

  17. A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies Marten Westrup European Commission, DG ENER Unit A1 Energy

  18. - Not properly taken into account in the RM2050 scenarios - Study ongoing (DG ENR A1):"Understanding of the labour market implications of the energy system transformation. The study should provide an analysis of employment effects for selected scenarios of En RM 2050- 5 Tasks:1. Collection of statistical data (base Eurostat disagregation)2. Literature review about recent analysis of the labour market challenges associated with the transition of the energy system 3. Develop of employment scenarios assessing employment effects of the scenarios RM2050 4. Sensitivity Analysis (5 parameters) 5. Provision of "Employment Coefficients" for future En Scenarios (ia jobs created by 1 GW, of per Euro invested…)- Contractor: COWI – Warwick+Cambridge+ErnstYoung+Exergia - Planning: 7 months – input for Impact Assessment Communication 2030 EMPLOYMENT ???

  19. Energy Roadmap 2050 – scenarios (1/2)

  20. For info - EURELECTRIC Study 20502010 « PowerChoices » Scenario Target: EU 75% GHG reduction in 2050 vs 1990 to respect IPPC 4th Assessment: 440 ppm CO2 eq and 2 deg C 50% GHG reduction worldwide and 60 to 80% OECD Means carbon-free electricity in 2050 in EU = 2nd SER Lot of energy efficiency and savings – primary energy needs decrease from 1800 Mtoe (2005) to 1400 Mtoe (2050) Electricity demand increases from 3100 to 4800 TWh Mainly RES – from 15% to 40 % – mainly wind 2x15 % by Coal and Gas Nuclear from 950 TWh to 1300 TWh (31 to 28%) Overall cost of PowerChoices: Investment needed: 2 trillion Euros for 2050 (of 2005)…EC estimation Power Infrastructures 2020 1 trillion Euros= 600B plants + 400B grid – of which 200B priority interconnections (10B from MFF Infrastructures Interconnecting Europe

  21. Nuclear in Energy Roadmap 2050 (2/2) • Share of nuclear in decarbonisation scenarios vary depending on assumptions taken from 3 to 19 % in electricity – of 4800 TWh • … 3 scenarios on 5 between 15 and 20%... • BUTwhatdoesitmean: 20% of 4800 TWh electricalcapacityneededin 2050 in terms of • Investments ? • Growth and Jobs ?

  22. 20% Nuclear Scenario 2050 (1/2)

  23. 20% Nuclear Scenario 2050 (2/2)

  24. 20% Nuclear Scenario 2050 - Impact on Investments, Growth and Jobs Long Term Operation (100 Units) New Built (100 Units) Several units in construct in parallel

  25. (Perspectives for nuclear in EU…???) • Further development is contingent on: • high level of nuclear safety & security - at large (technology, waste mgnt, emergmgnt, liability,…) • public acceptance + MS position on nuclear • climatetargetsmaintained + how well are "others" doing • positive investmentclimate • international cooperation and opportunities • research and innovation critical – leadership/knowledge

  26. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION • marc.deffrennes@ec.europa.eu Nuclear • marten.westrup@ec.europa.eu Energy Policy • dinko.raytchev@ec.europa.eu Employment study

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