NOT FOR ATTRIBUTION; FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

1. NOT FOR ATTRIBUTION; FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

2. Climate Change in the Philippines A Contribution to the Country Environmental Analysis World Bank CEA Workshop Manila, June 16-17, 2008 Maria Fernanda Garcia Rincón Felizardo K. Virtucio, Jr.

3. Outline • Greenhouse emissions • Climate change impacts in the Philippines • The Philippines’ response so far to climate change issues • The way forward on climate change in the Philippines

4. Snapshot of Greenhouse emissions Source: CAIT, WRI 2008

5. Climate Change Impacts in the Philippines • Vulnerability, Risks and Threats • Climate Variability > precipitation, temperature, and sea level changes • Sector Impacts > agriculture, forestry and lands > coastal areas, fisheries and marine resources > water resources > health

6. Vulnerability, Risks and Threats • High vulnerability to natural disasters • Expect: more frequent occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events • The poor at risk: high poverty incidence; most poor in natural hazard prone areas or dependant of natural resources at risk

7. Climate Variability

8. Impact on agriculture, forestry, and land • Land degradation reduces productivity, and changes in land-use in turn increase emissions • 1990-2000: 3.3% rice production lost as a consecuence of typhoons, floods, drought. • El Nino (97-98) resulted in ↓6.6% GDP in agriculture production • Degraded land causes migration to less productive land • Loss of subsistence-based livelihoods: 35% of labor force depends on sector • 55.9% of CO2 emissions from land use & forestry (2000) • Loss of biodiversity due to habitat destruction

9. Impact on coastal areas, fisheries and marine resources • Sea level rise puts at risk coastal activities (e.g., aquaculture) & infrastructure • 60% of the population depends on marine resources • Coral reefs contribute about $1.4 billion per year and accounted for 10 to 15 percent of total annual fish yield • Only 5-10% of mangroves and coral reefs in excellent condition • Decrease of up to 46% in live coral cover after the 1997-98 bleaching event; highly bleached areas coincided with areas of poverty and dense populations • Loss of biodiversity due to habitat destruction thus affecting fisheries

10. Impact on water resources • SLR increases salinity/undrinkability of water (evident in nearly 28 percent of coastal municipalities in Luzon, 20 percent in the Visayas, and almost 29 percent in Mindana) • Lead to ↑ 17% in wet season streamflow & ↓ 35% in dry season streamflow in Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed (Lasco et al 2006).

11. Impact on health • Indicative trend that there is 10% to 58% association between climate change and health. Further research needed (1 Nat. Com.). • May impact: under nutrition, cardio-respiratory diseases, dengue and especially affect diarrheal diseases and malaria(IPCC4) • In 1998 malaria and other diseases increased significantly as a consecuence of El Niño

12. The Philippines’ response so far to climate change issues • Policy and legal initiative • Organizational • Partnerships with International Organizations • Mitigation initiatives • Adaptation initiatives

13. Response: Policy and legal • Philippine Strategy for Sustainable Development (1991) • Rio Earth Summit and Philippine Agenda 21 (1992) • UNFCCC ratification (1994) • First National Communication on Climate Change (2000) • Kyoto Protocol ratification (2003) • Bio-Fuel Act (2006)

14. Response: Organizational

15. Response: Mitigation • 2004-2010 MTPDP: participation in clean development mechanism (CDM) and carbon market; mitigation in Agribusiness chapter • 2004 to 2013 Philippine Energy Plan – new and renewable energy development and promotion • Clean Development Mechanism – reducing GHGs through carbon trading: • 14 projects registered as of 10 September 2007 expected to prevent emission of 359,718 tons of CO2 equivalent per year, that is <1% of annual CO2 emissions • Bio-Fuel Act (2006)

16. Response: Adaptation • 2004-2010 MTPDP: • disaster risk reduction; • adaptation in Agribusiness chapter; • Green Philippine chapter • 2007 Albay Declaration • Sparse mention in laws and planning documents • Fragmented adaptation measures especially in vulnerable areas where most of the poor live • Poor public awareness of impact of CC

17. Response: Partnerships • Activity focus : most on capacity building at the level of National Government • Strategy focus : most on climate change mitigation - air pollution reduction in urban areas; CBFM in rural areas • Sector focus : energy • Area focus : urban areas

18. Mainstreaming climate change? • Lasco et al (2007) interviewed 83 policymakers and scientists and found: • About 95% thought mainstreaming climate change is important • Nearly 59% thought climate change had not been mainstreamed • Why? • Lack of understanding/appreciation of CC, lack of political will, lack of funding.

19. Way forward At the national level: • Formulate a Climate Change Framework • Covering both mitigation and adaptation • Oversight sectors agencies, LGUs and private sector on how to mainstream climate change in policies, etc • Promote climate resilient policies, programs, projects and institutional capacity development • More adaptation is needed!

20. Way forward (cont) At the local level: • Mainstream climate change in LGUs 5-year development and investment plans • Address short planning horizon of local executives Other policies: • Improve the access to and affordability of CC mitigation and adaptation technologies • Further mobilize and diversify climate risk management and financing schemes

21. Take home message • The Philippines is a minor emitter but mayor adaptor • Highly vulnerable to climate change • To date most focus has been on mitigation especially in the energy and transport sector • More focus on adaptation is needed

22. Mabuhay!