Comeback America: The Nation’s Fiscal Challenge and A Way Forward

1. Comeback America: The Nation’s Fiscal Challenge and A Way Forward Dallas CPA Society Member Conference Dallas CPA Society Dallas, TX May 26, 2011 Hon. David M. Walker Founder and CEO The Comeback America Initiative and Former Comptroller General of the United States

2. Growth of Government

3. Federal Spending & the Political Party in Power

4. Composition of Federal Spending(% of Total Outlays) 1970

5. More on Autopilot

6. Fiscal Gap 2011

7. Historical Receipts & Outlays

8. Projected Surplus?

9. Historical Debt Burdens

11. Growing Foreign Dependency

12. Comparative Debt Burdens

13. Fiscal Fitness Index: Overall Results Source: Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index. Note: *Japan’s debt was downgraded by Moody’s 1/29/11. ** Iceland’s Sustainable Fiscal Path reflects reforms enacted after an IMF bailout and there is a legal case pending in regard to foreign losses incurred due to the failure of Landsbanki.

14. Fiscal Fitness Index: Overall Results with U.S. Under NFRRC Plan Source: Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index. Note: *Japan’s debt was downgraded by Moody’s 1/29/11. ** Iceland’s Sustainable Fiscal Path reflects reforms enacted after an IMF bailout and there is a legal case pending in regard to foreign losses incurred due to the failure of Landsbanki.

15. Our Fiscal Future

16. CBO’s Public Debt Projections

17. Impact of Health Reform

18. Federal Revenues & the Political Party in Power

19. Federal Revenue Composition

20. Tax Burden

21. Progressive Tax System

22. Individual Tax Expenditures

23. Effective Tax Rates

24. Corporate Tax Expenditures

25. Statutory Corporate Tax Rates

26. Key Systemic Challenges • Expansion of government at all levels • Health Care Costs • Retirement Income Costs • Disability and Welfare Related Costs • Critical Infrastructure Needs • Education Costs • Corrections Costs • Outdated and Inadequate Revenue Systems • Myopia, Tunnel Vision, Special Interests and Self-Interest.

27. A Way Forward Federal: • Implement statutory budget controls that address discretionary and mandatory spending as well as tax preferences in order to stabilize our debt/ GDP at a reasonable level • Achieve Social Security reform that makes the program solvent, sustainable, secure and more savings oriented • Reduce the rate of increase in health care costs and more effectively target related taxpayer subsidies and tax preferences • Ensure that all future health care reforms adequately consider coverage, cost quality and personal responsibility • Pursue comprehensive tax reform that makes the system more streamlined, understandable, equitable and competitive while also generating adequate revenues

28. A Way Forward - Continued • Review, re-prioritize and re-engineer the base of the federal government, including national security strategies, to focus on the future, eliminate waste, generate real results and ensure sustainability • Ensure that we have process that will enable us to achieve the above objectives within a reasonable period of time State and Local: • Reform pension and health systems to make them reasonable, affordable and sustainable • Review, re-prioritize and re-engineer the base of government. • Pursue comprehensive tax reform in coordination with the federal government. • Consider an exchange of primary roles, functions and revenue sources as part of a new federalism or devolution effort (e.g., health care, education, infrastructure)

29. Statutory Debt Ceiling

30. The Debt Ceiling Debate We must raise the debt ceiling. The Real Questions are: • How much it should be raised?, and • What conditions should be attached to any increase in the debt ceiling limit?

31. The Debt Ceiling Debate - Continued Given the deteriorating financial condition of the federal government and rising concern regarding spending , deficits and debt, the following conditions are illustrative of the types of conditions that should be considered: • Short-termSpending: • Agreeing to cut discretionary spending, excluding war costs, to fiscal 2008 levels adjusted for population growth over 2-3 years. • Structural Deficits: • Enacting tough but realistic statutory budget controls that could include: • meaningful PAYGO rules on the spending and tax side; • tough but realistic discretionary spending caps, and; • specific debt/GDP targets that begin in 2013-2014 with automatic enforcement mechanisms (e.g., spending cuts and temporary tax surcharges or preference reduction). • Authorize and fund a major citizen education and engagement effort that will occur during late 2011 and 2012 to prepare the way for tough choices beginning in 2013.

32. A Phased Approach • Calendar 2011 • Tough 2011 and 2012 Budgets (Short-Term) • Earmarks Moratorium (Short-Term) • Selected Pay and Hiring Freezes (Short-Term) • Leading By Example (Short-Term) • Statutory Budget Controls (Structural) • Transformation and Accountability Task Force (Structural) • 2011 – 2013 • Congressional Hearings • Citizen Education/Engagement • 2013 -? • Comprehensive Social Security Reform (Structural) • Role and Size of Government (Structural) • Health Care Coverage Reform and Cost Controls (Structural) • Comprehensive Tax Reform (Structural)

33. A Three Pronged Test for Policy Creation • The policy should make economic sense, be socially equitable and culturally acceptable • The math behind the policy must work • The policy must be politically feasible

34. New Players on the Fiscal Responsibility Field • Comeback America Initiative (CAI) • Bridgeport, CT • www.TCAII.org • No Labels • Washington, DC • www.nolabels.org