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Developing picture

Developing picture. At 12 UT, TD18F at 15S, 167E and moving W at 8 kts Outflow good to N; begin steered west by STR to south Expect TD to continue westward before curving SE and intensifying. 09 March 0632 UT (Sun 1630). 09 March 1232 UT (Sun 2030). Guam. Vila. Nadi.

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Developing picture

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  1. Developing picture • At 12 UT, TD18F at 15S, 167E and moving W at 8 kts • Outflow good to N; begin steered west by STR to south • Expect TD to continue westward before curving SE and intensifying 09 March 0632 UT (Sun 1630) 09 March 1232 UT (Sun 2030) Guam Vila Nadi

  2. 1632 UT IR image

  3. Nadi soundingscontinuing very cold tropopauses Sat nite very cold trop: 88.3 hPa, -88.1°C = 185 K Sun nite very cold trop: 86.7 hPa, -88.9°C = 184 K

  4. 00 UT Monday: two different forecasts 160 180 GFS 06Z 10S TD18F @ 00UT Surface winds Vanuatu/Fiji convergence line in red 6-hr precip 850 hPa vorticity NVG 12Z • GFS forecast has a bit more precip north of Fiji; otherwise models are in good agreement on arc of convergence through Vanuatu and east to Fiji • Red Box in each panels shows region of safe passage • penetrating farther southward will depend on what IR sat pix look like

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