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ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring

ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring. Manfred Klöppel (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF) (thanks to Vincent-Henri Peuch and Dick Dee, both ECMWF) Manfred.Kloeppel@ecmwf.int www.ecmwf.int.

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ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring

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  1. ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring Manfred Klöppel (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF) (thanks to Vincent-Henri Peuch and Dick Dee, both ECMWF) Manfred.Kloeppel@ecmwf.int www.ecmwf.int

  2. ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring • ECMWF’s long-term strategy • MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate • HE-01 Tools and Information for Health Decision-Making • ERA-CLIM (reanalysis) • CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation

  3. The ECMWF Strategy2011–2020

  4. Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – InterimImplementation MACC-II is the third in a series of FP6 & 7 EU projects (since 2005). It is coordinated by ECMWF and the consortium comprises 36 partners from 13 countries. It runs till July 2014, when GMES operations are expected to start. Weather services Long-range pollutant transport Air quality Dust outbreaks Solar energy UV radiation Climate forcing by gases and aerosols • •• Atmospheric environmental services provide data & information on Environmental agencies

  5. Exciting satellite observations for atmospheric composition are currently available CO2 (GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES) SO2 (GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT) Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS, NASA) NO2 (OMI, KNMI/NASA)

  6. From combining observations and model forecast… MOPITT CO (NASA) MACC-II global system relies on ECMWF variational 4d-var scheme, assimilating a range of remote-sensing data to deliver analyses (illustrated here for Carbon Monoxide, a tracer of combustion sources). IASI CO (LATMOS/ULB)

  7. … to global forecasting… MACC-II provides daily 5-day global forecasts with a horizontal resolution of 80 km and a time resolution of 3 hours, using a “chemistry-enabled” version of ECMWF’s forecast model.

  8. … to regional ensemble forecasts O3 NO2 SO2 PM10 The global system drives the regional models providing European-scale air quality forecasts. Regional Models Global Model Observations

  9. http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu Retrospective Service Provision Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition (2003-2011) Aerosol Optical Depth 30 years ozone layer records Methane CO2 and CH4 surface flux inversions 700+ users

  10. http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu Near-Real-Time Service Provision 90+ users and obsAIRve European Air Quality More on MACC-II achievements in the talk by L. Wald in the late afternoon session today Global Pollution Biomass burningemissions UV index Aerosol

  11. Climate monitoring by reanalysis Re-analysis of the recent past: Global datasets for monitoring climate change ERA-15 ERA-40 ERA-Interim ERA-20C ERA-40: 6-hourly gridded data products from 1957-2002 ERA-Interim: From 1979 to present, monthly updates near real-time • ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project • Preparing a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th Century • Contributes to the GEO 2012-2015 work plan: • CL-01 C1 Extension and Improvement of the Climate Record

  12. ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project coordinated by ECMWF To prepare input observations, model data, and data assimilation systems for a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century • ERA-CLIM will deliver: • Data rescue (both in-situ and satellite) • New reanalysis products • Improved data quality • Improved data access

  13. Reanalysesprovide a complete picture of recent trendsexample: temperatureDeg C/decade, 1979-2001

  14. Summary • Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate • Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century • Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation

  15. Summary • Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate • Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century • Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation • The FP7 ERA-CLIM project: European contribution to GEO

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