Atmospheric Composition Constellation

1. Atmospheric Composition Constellation Ernest HilsenrathNASA/HQ J. Langen, C. Zehner ESA CEOS WGCV/WGISS Sanya, China 24-26 February 2008

2. Atmospheric Composition Constellation (ACC) • The Atmospheric Composition (AC) Constellation is one of four pilot projects established by CEOS to bring about technical/scientific collaboration among space agencies that support national priorities and the GEO SBA’s • The AC Constellation study will identify mission(s) or data delivery that serves the science and application community that can be advocated by the CEOS agencies • The AC Constellation study will prioritize user requirements and define missions or a “virtual” system consisting of space and ground segments to include archives and data distribution systems that meet science and application user requirements • The AC Constellation considers only the space component of atmospheric composition science and applications, but recognizes the need for complimentary ground based measurements and modeling to fully address science and application priorities

4. Science Questions Decision Support • How is stratospheric ozone responding to the Montreal protocol and what are the effects of climate change on expected ozone recovery? • What are the impacts of long range transport of pollution on local and regional air-quality? How do changes in air quality effect ecosystems? • How do changes in atmospheric composition (radiatively active gases and aerosols) affect climate? How does climate change affect atmospheric composition? Aura/OMI NO2 “Observations have clearly shown that human activities are changing the composition of the Earths atmosphere. Research has demonstrated that there are important consequences of such changes for climate, human health, and the balance of ecosystems.. ”, IGOS/IGACO, 2004 Terra/MODIS RGB

5. ACC Requirements are Mature • Requirements for Atmospheric Composition measurements have been developed and supported by national and international space agencies and panels • IGOS/IGACO (WMO), US Decadal Survey, CAPACITY, GMES, NASA Science Plan, US CCSP, ESA Living Planet, etc • Consistent with GEO SBA’s and GEOSS • WMO/GOS recognizes the need for additional AC observations via GAW • GCOS Climate requirements (ECVs) • IGOS has transitioned into GEO • The AC Constellation goal: Collect and deliver data to develop and improve predictive capabilities for coupled changes in theozone layer, air quality, and climate forcing associated with changes in the environment. • Three specific users types: • Forecast services: National weather and environmental protection agencies • Assessments: IPCC, Montreal Protocol, USCCSP • Monitoring: Montreal and Kyoto Protocols, IPCC, GCOS, CCSP, PROMOTE (GMES) IGOS Transitions to GEO

6. ACC Constellation Synergy: A-Train Unique opportunity for conducting AC science and providing Societal Benefits using multiple instruments across international platforms • Collaboration efficiency: take advantage of each instrument’s unique capability • Cross instrument validation • Improved spatial and temporal coverage: e.g. different equator crossing times • Enhanced data products: e.g. aerosol and cloud characteristics, pollution and its transport for assessments and forecasting • More accurate trends by comparing and combining data sets A-train is a good example of Constellation Science CEOS provides an opportunity to extend collaboration internationally AIRS Carbon Monoxide CALIPSO clouds and aerosols Example: Geographic extent of CO from biomass burning in combination with vertical distribution of smoke improves assessment of total emissions and downstream impacts

7. ACC traceability to GEO WP map into 5 SBA’s

8. GCOS Priorities for AC • GCOS (http://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/gcoshome.html) has established a set of requirement for Global Climate Observations endorsed by WMO, UNEP, ICSU and the space agencies. CEOS Response to COP-10 • GCOS data requirements can be mapped into the AC Constellation (encouraging international collaboration) • GCOS specifically recommends deployment of “advanced • observations” for Atmospheric Composition using multi- • view and multi-spectral systems

9. AC Constellation Implementation • Establish a framework for long term coordination among the CEOS agencies where the “Constellation” concept will identify specific opportunities for meeting science and application requirements • Assemble international Study Team consisting of CEOS Agencies with Atmospheric Composition interests and assets and authorized to commit resources • Complimentary advisory group from science and application community to insure requirements are being considered. Participate in establishing priorities • Develop a consensus for priorities based on and established user requirements and emerging societal needs from both operational and research communities • Evaluate existing and upcoming missions, both operational and research and compare with requirements. Perform Requirements and Gap Analysis (underway) • Establish how existing and approved missions could work synergistically to meet the international user community requirements and in particular the GEO Societal Benefit Areas • Define enhancement in the area of cal/val, quality control, and data accessibility and interoperability, major rolls for WGISS and WGCV (AC Subgroup) • Develop rationale, strategy and standards for new mission(s) to meet requirements not being met and for possible new requirements. Strategy to include architecture, schedule, and possibly costs

10. ACC - Status • First Workshop (ACC-1) - March 2007, Washington, USA • Second Workshop (ACC-2) - September 2007, Darmstadt, DE • CEOS Plenary - November 2007, Hawaii, USA • Aviation Hazard Workshop - November 2007, Toulouse, FR • CEOS GEO Re-mapping Workshop - April 2008, Washington, DC USA • Agree on the AC Constellation concept and its objectives and development of Work Plan • Agreement of space agencies and users to participate • Agree on goals and projects parallel to CEOS/GEO milestones • Near term: Available today or very soon: Concentrate on refinement, use, access to and distribution of existing data products - combined and synergistic data set: Requirements and Gap Analysis; Projects • Medium-term: Feasible within a few years, Extends product specification and interoperability - improved data product. Also define new mission architecture leading to a Constellation • Consider LEO and GEO orbits • Challenges for Research to Operations • Long-term: Achievable within about ten years after original constellation concept is agreed on – agreement on the implementation of a Constellation and its architecture

11. ACC Projects • Conduct Requirements and Gap Analysis to determine capabilities of existing and planned space assets to meet GEO SBA’s • Short term projects underway to demonstrate synergistic and enhanced data products from multiple mission directed towards GEO SBA’s • Longer term projects planned for GCOS (Climate) requirements

12. Requirements and Gap Analysis • Objective • Survey the requirements for atmospheric composition measurements over the next decade • Summarize capabilities of existing and planned missions • Identify mission gaps • Status - Data collated from • US NRC Decadal Survey 2007 • GMES Requirements developed by ESA and EUMETSAT(inc IGACO and CAPACITY reports, post-EPS, MTG and Sentinel 4 & 5 MRDs) • GCOS Requirements • Final Report • Mission summaries and AC instrument capabilities • Gap assessment in capabilities and time domain • Recommendation to CEOS (Agencies)

13. Requirements and Gap Analysis - Example -

14. ACC Project – Time of day NO2 (NOAA) NO2 is precursor to ozone and an EPA criteria pollutant NOAA provides AQ forecast • Requirements: • Improve emissions inventories • Characterize long range transport • Assessment of processes • Compliance and clean air rules • Model and forecast improvements • Improvement using combined Metop and Aura NO2 data sets A. Richter, University of Bremen

15. ACC Project – Time of day NO2 – Status • Employ Aura/OMI and Metop/GOME-2 data • 09:30 and 13:45 equator crossing time • Direct L1 data from NASA/GSFC and DLR • Common algorithm to remove biases and reveal time of day changes for one month complete • Further optimize algorithm • Create six month data set for initial evaluation • Compare with regional model predictions • Develop products of USA EPA for pollution inventories and AQ forecasts GOME-2 NO2

16. ACC Project – Aerosol/Smoke Forecast (NASA) • Smoke dust Forecast in collaboration with NOAA and EPA • Automated fire detection algorithm for GOES • AOD algorithm from MODIS and AVHRR • Include vertical aerosol distribution from CALIPSO • Employ trajectory model to predict distribution and location and smoke • Extend to MSG/SEVIRI • Deploy service on: http://servir.nsstc.nasa.gov http://idea.ssec.wisc.edu/ • Potential collaboration with PROMOTE/GMES Service

17. ACC Project – Aerosol/Smoke Forecast - Status- • Tools set up to access data NRT (automated bent pipe) initially MODIS AOD and Fire Detect products at NOAA/UW • Trajectory analysis and Reverse Domain Filling being tested at NASA/LaRC • Dust and smoke forecast demonstrated • Link between NOAA/UW and NASA/LaRC not yet operational • Distribution by IDEA, SERVIR, etc. websites is TBD

18. ACC Project – Aviation Volcanic Advisory (ESA) • Volcanic eruptions have impact aviation safety • The US (NASA, USGS, and NOAA) and ESA (PROMOTE) support national VAACs by providing alerts based on satellite data • National services will be coordinated and extended to provide a global service using enhanced capabilities through US and ESA combined efforts • Aura, Envisat, and MSG • Improved SO2 and ash detection • Trajectory analysis via meteorological services • Global alerts

19. ACC Project – Aviation Volcanic Advisory- Status- • Workshop held at Meteo-France Nov 07 to bring together data provider and users (VAACs) to provide priorities: • Improve location and boundaries • Improve plume characteristics • Improve latency • Improve forecast accuracy and decrease false alarms • Employ advanced algorithms and additional satellites; e.g. MSG CALIPSO • On-going agency activities supported • ESA is considering an AO solicitation to focus activities via its PROMOTE program. Eruptions Affecting North Pacific Air Routes OMI CALIPSO

20. WGISS (and ADC) Roles for ACC- Interoperability and Data Distribution - • Access GEONETCast for low cost GEO compliant data distribution: ACC Projects #2 and #3 • SERVIR or IDEA websites for Project #2, possibly in Africa for on-line service by users • Potential Sensor Web application for validation and improved latency: ACC Project #2 and #3 • Acquire and fuse satellite, in situ and modelling data • Validating data observations in real time • Possible sensor control feedback enabling real-time sensor tasking • Enable discovery and access to sensor web components and services • Possible interaction with WGISS Test Facility (WTF) and other WGISS resources • Explore applicability of OGC Network

21. WGCV Roles for ACC • Requires and fully supports end-to-end validation of AC data products needed for SBAs • Works closely with WGCV/ACSG and is necessary for data “interoperability” because of the use of multiple satellites • Accepts “best practices” and standards recognizing that standards are user dependent • New requirements for validation • Tropospheric AC products for air quality forecasts and aviation hazard alerts (i.e. NO2, SO2) • Long term data sets (O3, CO, CO2, H2O etc) for climate requires well maintained ground network

22. ACC Project for Composition and Climate-Climate Data Records- • Both GEO (CL-06-02) and GCOS (ECVs) have requirements for long term data records to establish the connections between AC trends and climate needed for assessment and predictions • NASA and other agencies are supporting creation of data sets (ESDRs) to tackle this issue • Ozone trends (TOMS, SBUV, UARS, SAGE, Aura, Envisat, ACE, Metop, NPP/NPOESS) • Stratospheric Constituents (UARS, SAGE, Aura, Envisat, ACE, POAM) • Water Vapor trends (UARS, Aura, SAGE, balloon soundings) • Aerosol trends (TOMS, AVHRR, SeaWIFS, MODIS, NPP/NPOESS • Surface Reflectivity trends (TOMS, SBUV, SeaWiFS, Aura, Metop, NPP/NPOES • Launch of GoSat (JAXA) and OCO (NASA) for carbon emission and sinks is next major challenge for ACC coordination via CEOS • Resolution of biases is a major effort. Maintaining cal/val data base is crucial and ca/val activities must be sustained (WGCV for implementation) • Accurate and interoperable data sets for assessments and policy needed. Coordinated through GEO UIC and ADC (WGISS for implementation)