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Delaware, Ohio Market Potentials

Delaware, Ohio Market Potentials. Presentation of Preliminary Findings September 10, 2002. Agenda. 1. Demographic Economic Trends 2. Market Overviews: A. Residential B. Industrial C. Office D. Retail 3. Next Steps. Demographic & Economic Trends. Population. Migration.

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Delaware, Ohio Market Potentials

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  1. Delaware, Ohio Market Potentials Presentation of Preliminary Findings September 10, 2002 Randall Gross / Development Economics

  2. Agenda • 1. Demographic Economic Trends • 2. Market Overviews: • A. Residential • B. Industrial • C. Office • D. Retail • 3. Next Steps Randall Gross / Development Economics

  3. Demographic & Economic Trends Randall Gross / Development Economics

  4. Population Randall Gross / Development Economics

  5. Migration Randall Gross / Development Economics

  6. 1990-2000 Population Trends • Metro Columbus (1,540,157) • 1990-2000 Growth: 11.8% (1.2%/year) • Delaware County (109,989) • 1990-2000 Growth: 64.3% (6.4%/year) • Delaware City (25,243) • 1990-2000 Growth: 26.0% (2.6%/year) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  7. Share of Metro Columbus Randall Gross / Development Economics

  8. 2002-2007 Population Growth Forecasts • Columbus Metro (1,649,200) • 2002-2007 Growth: 4.8% (1.0%/year) • Delaware County (159,400) • 2002-2007 Growth: 25.0% (5.0%/year) • Delaware City (35,000) • 2002-2007 Growth: 22.7% (4.5%/year) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  9. 2002-2007 Household Growth Forecasts • Columbus Metro (696,100) • 2002-2007 Growth: 6.8% (1.4%/year) • Delaware County (59,200) • 2002-2007 Growth: 26.5% (5.3%/year) • Delaware City (13,300) • 2002-2007 Growth: 23.7% (4.7%/year) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  10. Employment Trends (1994-2001) • Delaware City (16,510) • 12,640 (327%) since 1994 • Delaware County (42,818) • 21,950 (105%) since 1994 • Columbus Metro (760,730) • 102,650 (16%) since 1994 Randall Gross / Development Economics

  11. Growth Industries • Services • 12,400 more jobs (185%) • Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate • 4,100 more jobs (320%) • Transport, Telecom • 1,100 more jobs (277%) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  12. Employment Base Randall Gross / Development Economics

  13. Share of Regional Industrial Base Randall Gross / Development Economics

  14. Service Industries Randall Gross / Development Economics

  15. Household Income Trends • Delaware City $52,280 (2002) • Real Growth 1989-2002 11.7% • Delaware County $98,920 (2002) • Real Growth 1989-2002 38.0% Randall Gross / Development Economics

  16. 2. Preliminary Market Summaries Randall Gross / Development Economics

  17. A) Residential Market • Market Area • Delaware City • Delaware County Randall Gross / Development Economics

  18. Residential Market Indices • DU City County Metro • Total 11,600 50,200 653,100 • Owner 61% 81% 62% • Vacancy City County Metro • Owner 1.7% 2.3% 1.7% • Rental 9.2% 10.2% 8.0% Randall Gross / Development Economics

  19. Residential Construction Randall Gross / Development Economics

  20. Residential Construction Trends Randall Gross / Development Economics

  21. Housing Sales Trends Randall Gross / Development Economics

  22. Market Indicators • MLS sales ave 25 per month • New product absorption ave 39 to 48 per month • Key projects: • Carson Farms Price/SF: $108.89 • Kensington Place • Lantern Chase Price/SF: $ 98.87 • Troy Farms Price/SF: $ 91.57 • Lexington Glen Price/SF: $ 97.77 • Woods of Dornoch Price/SF: $123.38 Randall Gross / Development Economics

  23. “North v South” –2002 Sales Price Comparison: Delaware County & Sub-Markets Randall Gross / Development Economics

  24. Housing Price Trends Randall Gross / Development Economics

  25. Buyer Profile • 70% - 90% young families • 50% move-ups or lateral moves from within Delaware City and County • 50% relocations; from Columbus • Priced out of south Delaware sub-markets • Commuters (Honda, Columbus, Polaris) • Polaris shopping Randall Gross / Development Economics

  26. 2007 Housing Potentials • Methodology – “Fair Share” HH Demand, Absorption • 13,700 potential new housing units in County • 10,300 for-sale • 2,100 rental (except if restricted) • 2,700 in Delaware City (“Fair Share”) • 2,400 for-sale • Approved Supply: 2660 (5.5 years) • 300 –500 rental (higher if restricted elsewhere) • Approved Supply: 1,650 (12-16 years) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  27. High-End Housing Potentials • 4,030 high-income HH added in Market Area by 2007 (that can afford $250/$300,000+) • Delaware potential for 580-820 • Assumes same capture as moderate-income HH • Assumes 20% move-up factor • Potential for more requires: • Available, ready development land • Strategic developer partnerships • Amenity-driven marketing strategy • Supportive regulatory environment Randall Gross / Development Economics

  28. B) Industrial Market • Market Area • Delaware City • Delaware County Randall Gross / Development Economics

  29. Industrial Market Indices • 43 buildings / 5,130,000 square feet • 2.5% of Metro Market • Metro Market focused on South/west • 61.6% of Delaware County – Industrial Hub • Concentrated in Del County Industrial Park • Diverse products: • Metals, wood/paper products, building materials, plastics, automotive, instruments, printing/publishing, distribution • 4.6% vacancy / Average rental rate $4.55/SF • Enterprise Zone, Tax Abatements Randall Gross / Development Economics

  30. Industrial Absorption Randall Gross / Development Economics

  31. Regional vs Local Performance • Mix • Local: Manufacturing (& Whse) • Region: Distribution / Warehouse • Vacancy • Local: 4.6% • Region: 13% (12-year high) • Rents • Local: $4.55 • Region: $4.70 (incl Warehouse) • Absorption • Local: 81,200 SF Moving Average • Region: - 864,000 SF MA Randall Gross / Development Economics

  32. Industrial Employment • Delaware City Industrial Employment Forecasts • 2000: 5,234 • 2005: 6,315 • 2010: 6,547 • 2015: 6,920 • 2020: 7,727 (Source: MORPC / RGDE) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  33. Industrial Survey • Ave 60 employees • Ave 63,500 SF facility • Machinery, automotive, bldg products • National Market • Advantages: Available space, RE cost • Disadvantages: Unavailable labor, location/shipping costs, lack of Interstate Randall Gross / Development Economics

  34. Industrial Absorption Forecasts • Methodology: Absorption, Employment • Speculative Industrial Absorption Forecasts • 2002-2007: 315,700 SF • 2007-2012: 258,800 SF • 2012-2017: 490,700 SF • 2017-2022: 723,900 SF Randall Gross / Development Economics

  35. C) Office Market • Delaware City • (N/W) Delaware County Randall Gross / Development Economics

  36. Office Market Indices • 9 Competitive Class A/B Buildings • 128,200 Square Feet • 0.2% of Metro • 4.2% of County • 6.3% Vacancy • Average Rental Rate: $13.00/SF • Overall Decentralized Supply • Downtown Space • 69,300 SF • 26.5% vacant Randall Gross / Development Economics

  37. Office Absorption Trends Randall Gross / Development Economics

  38. Office Employment • Delaware City Office Employment Forecasts • 2000: 4,380 • 2005: 4,760 • 2010: 4,990 • 2015: 5,340 • 2020: 6,060 Randall Gross / Development Economics

  39. Office Absorption Forecasts • Methodology: Absorption, Employment • South Delaware Competition • Speculative Office Absorption Forecasts • 2002-2007 51,400 SF • 2007-2012 54,400 SF • 2012-2017 66,500 SF • 2017-2022 82,800 SF Randall Gross / Development Economics

  40. D) Retail Market • Retail Trade Area • Delaware City • Delaware County • Marion County / North Randall Gross / Development Economics

  41. CBD Retail Indices • Inventory • Total commercial 312,740 SF • Retail space 181,710 • Vacant 50,100 (27.6%) • Upper Floor space • 35% occupied • 68% Office / 21% Apts • Rents $7 psf (was $8/9) • Sales Trends Up 1-3% (< inflation) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  42. CBD Business Mix Randall Gross / Development Economics

  43. Consumer Survey Randall Gross / Development Economics

  44. Randall Gross / Development Economics

  45. Trips per week: 1.85 • Reason: • Work (36%) • Shopping (16%) • Eating/Drinking (15%) • Services (11%) • Ave Expenditure per trip: $30.54 • Ave Expenditure per HH/yr: $2,942 • HH Incomes: 25% between $50,000 and $75,000 • Competition: • Polaris (40%) • Wal*Mart (15%) • Tuttle Crossing (10%) Randall Gross / Development Economics

  46. Randall Gross / Development Economics

  47. Specific preferences • Ice cream: Graeter’s, Ben & Jerry’s • Niche specialty stores • Old Navy • The Gap • Target • CVS/drugstore • Non-chain stores/independent stores Randall Gross / Development Economics

  48. Strengths • Small-Town Atmosphere • Community feel, personal service, friendliness • Heritage • Historic architecture, “charm,” cultural & campus assets • Location & Scale • Proximity, walkability, compact layout • Diverse, Independent Businesses • Small / home-grown stores, non-chains, not “cookie cutter” • 45 businesses named (all but one independent): • Mean Bean, Pilsner’s, Pat’s Records, Global Village, Brown Jug, Hamburger Inn, Crossroads, Nectar, Del Antique Mall, Focal Point, Strand, Newshop, Candle Creations, 2nd Sole… Randall Gross / Development Economics

  49. Weaknesses • Nothing to see or do (34%) • Not enough shopping (34%) • Not enough free parking (22%) • To Attract People Downtown: • More stores / variety • More entertainment & things to do • Events & festivals, arts, nighttime entertainment, family & teen activities, recreation center, etc.. • More restaurants Randall Gross / Development Economics

  50. Retail Demand Randall Gross / Development Economics

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