Risk Factor Approach

1. Risk Factor Approach

2. Risk Factor Approach • Risk factors are taken from empirical research conducted for theory testing • Take the best predictors of delinquency and attempt to build a comprehensive understanding as to why youths engage in delinquency • Not theory specific—driven by a public health perspective • Focus on factors that: • Increase the likelihood of delinquency (risk factors), • Reduce the likelihood of delinquency (protective factors)

3. What are Risk Factors? • Risk factors are empirically supported characteristics that increase the probability that an individual will engage in crime/delinquency. • Risk factors are broken into five domains: • Individual Factors • Peer Factors • Family Factors • School Factors • Community Factors

4. Individual Factors • Age • Onset, peak, and desistence—age crime curve • Early onset of antisocial behavior • Prenatal and Perinatal factors • Complications while in the fetus and immediately after birth • Poor breathing • Severe respiratory syndrome • Connection with hyperactivity • Lead exposure • Alcohol exposure

5. Individual Factors, Continued • Antisocial/Aggressive behavior as a child • Poor development of empathy, guilt, moral reasoning • Low self-control, impulsivity • Lower verbal IQ • Substance abuse and mental illness • Attitudes favorable toward problem behaviors

6. Family Factors • Structural Characteristics • Single parent (resources, supervision) • Age of mother (resources, health) • Number of children (>4: delinquent siblings, supervision) • Multigenerational involvement in crime, substance abuse, and dropping out of school • Family Interaction • Poor parenting practices (poor socialization) • Parent attitudes favorable toward problem behavior • Poor supervision • Poor, inconsistent, or extreme (high & low) discipline • Poor communication/attachment • Neglect/abuse

7. School Factors • Structural Factors • Grade retention • Use of suspensions and expulsions • Tracking • Functioning Factors • Early antisocial/aggressive behavior • Truancy in early adolescent years • Academic failure • Lack of commitment to learning • Lack of attachment to school setting

8. Community Factors • Extreme economic deprivation • Concentrations of multi-family and public housing units • Concentrations of unemployed men • Concentrations of younger households • Concentrations of single parent families • Communities with little collective efficacy • Lots of bars and liquor stores • Drug markets • High levels of violence • Availability of firearms, alcohol, and other drugs • Norms favorable to drug use and/or crime,

9. Static & Dynamic Risk Factors • Risk factors are both static and dynamic • Static: Characteristics that cannot change • Age at first referral/adjudication • Number of prior referrals/arrests • Number of out-of-home placements • Dynamic: Characteristics that can change with planned intervention or control of the situation • School performance and behavior • Substance Abuse & Mental Health Problems • Family stability and control • Peer Relationships

10. What are Protective Factors? • Protective factors are conditions that counter risk factors or increase resistance to them; thus, inhibiting the development of problems. • Protective factors fall into three areas: • Individual Characteristics such as temperament, intelligence • Attachment/commitment to prosocial persons, institutions, and values • Healthy beliefs and clear standards for behavior

11. Important Characteristics • Risk, need, and protective factors vary in importance across life stages • Risk, need, and protective factors are cumulative and synergistic rather than additive • The more risk factors one has, the more likely they are to engage in problem behavior; however, the number and combination of factors is not necessarily the same for everytone • An effective justice system response depends on integrating interventions to address risk and protective factors simultaneously

12. Role of Risk Factor Approach • Program Development • Provides empirical foundation from which to build programming • Structures interventions most appropriate • Risk Assessment • Predictor of dangerousness • Case management

13. Handling Risk • Handling risk is the primary function of the juvenile court and juvenile justice agencies—to increase public safety • Options for handling risk: • All offenders can be handled in the same way • Each offender could be handled in a random fashion, largely dependent on the subjective opinions of the decision-makers • Each offender could be assessed using objective criteria and given levels of supervision and interventions appropriate to his/her risk and need levels • Which is the best option? • Which option occurs most often? • Why use an objective tool? • Accuracy, consistency in the decision-making process • Using resources efficiently—limited resources must be used wisely

14. Identifying and Managing Offender Risk: Risk Assessment • Structured tools/surveys that use risk, need, and protective factors to objectively determine appropriate types and levels of intervention • Pre-adjudication • Post-adjudication • Utilized to produce a case plan that • Integrates appropriate levels of supervision, intervention, and treatment (if needed) • Decrease risk and need factors and increase protective factors; thereby reducing his/her probability for future crime/delinquency

15. Building Effective Risk Assessments • Use of empirically supported information and when available, instruments that have proven strength and accuracy • Inclusion of many decision-makers • Clarity on the goal and reason for using a risk assessment • Pre-adjudication detention • Post-adjudication disposition • Supervision • Treatment planning • Risk assessments also play a valuable role in holding agencies accountable and evaluating the outcomes of decisions and programming

16. Example: • A risk tool often includes the following: • Age at First Offense (12 or younger) • Prior Record (Prior Record/Behavior is problematic) • Offense Types (Violent Offenses) • Attitude (Attitudes Favorable to Delinquency) • Personal Relations (Peer Delinquency) • Substance Abuse (Indications of Substance Abuse) • School/Employment (Dropped Out of School (Juveniles Only and/or Working) • Maltreatment (Juveniles Only—History of Abuse/Neglect) • Overall Impression of Offender’s Risk to Reoffend • Composition of a tool depends on the goal and empirical evidence

17. Benefits of Risk/Need Assessment • Benefits to Youth • Promotes equitable treatment • Increases accuracy and encourages placement in least restrictive environment • Benefits to Staff • Promotes equitable treatment • Increases consistency and accuracy • Saves time and energy • Expedites decision-making • Provides explicit justification and support for recommendations/judgments • Benefits to Program, Agency, Jurisdiction • Increases public safety • More efficient use of resources • Useful for program evaluation • Facilitates better control of offenders under supervision in the community and in institutions

18. Strengths of Risk Factors and Assessment • Provides a comprehensive picture of the youth and the factors that influence his/her behavior • Allows for “classification” of a youth into levels of risk and need • Using classifications, system increases the chance that programming will be effective • Provides a guide to developing empirically supported programming

19. Weaknesses of Risk Factors and Assessment • There is no magical formula that predicts delinquency • The same combination of factors in one person may not result in the same behavior as that by someone with the same combination • Risk factors used in justice assessments can predict a problem incorrectly • Risk factor approach provides a road map but is still not a solution to crime

20. The Results of Prediction • True Negative=Accurate prediction of no violence • True Positive=Accurate prediction of violence • False Negative=Inaccurate prediction—violence did not occur despite prediction; civil liberties/labeling issue • False Positive=Inaccurate prediction—violence did occur despite prediction; public safety issue