Second National Communication of the Republic of TAJIKISTAN under the UNFCCC

1. Second National Communication of the Republic of TAJIKISTAN under the UNFCCC Ilhomjon RAJABOV Head, Climate Change Centre Side Event: Thirteenth Session of the SBSTA/SBI UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany 5 June 2009

2. Main outcomesof TJK SNC preparation process (1):Vulnerability and Adaptation The project touched the following aspects in terms of vulnerability and adaptation assessment: • Change in air temperature and precipitation patterns in the lowlands and mountain regions of the country [1940s – 2000s] • Impact of climate change on natural resources and adaptation: - Glaciers - Water resources - Natural ecosystems, forests, land and soil • Impact of climate change on economic development and adaptation : - Water economy - Agriculture • Impact of climate change on human health and adaptation

3. Change in air temperature For the past 60 years air temperature in selected parts of the country increased by 1C (populated areas in south-central TJK).

4. Precipitation and droughts • Increasing variability in precipitation • Changes in extreme events (more severe dry and wet episodes)

5. Many small glaciers in Tajikistan totally disappeared due to recent climate warming Former glacier

7. Due to ice melting risks of long term water deficit and glacial lakes formation and sudden outburst floods are increasing

8. Climate change projections for the mountain regions

9. Pamirs and Tien-Shan Water towers of Central Asia

10. Ice and snow melting may trigger water problems

11. Main outcomesof TJK SNC preparation process (2):Greenhouse Gas Inventory • The Tajik GHG (greenhouse gas inventory) covers the period 1990-2003 (2005). • The main sectors considered in the Tajik GHG Inventory: - Energy - Industrial processes - Agriculture - Waste - Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry The main greenhouse gases: - CO2 - CH4 - N2O - CF4 and C2F6 (from aluminium production) - GHG precursors and SO2

12. Main outcomesof TJK SNC preparation process (2):Greenhouse Gas Inventory • In 1990-2003 the highest GHG emissions were observed in 1990 and reached 25 million metric tons in CO2-equivalent. The lowest GHG emissions were observed in 2000 at 7 million metric tons in CO2-equivalent. • The maximum decrease of GHG was in ENERGY sector (from 17 to 3 mln. tons), whereas the minimum decrease was in AGRICULTURE (from 5 to 4 mln. tons). The increase of GHG emissions is evident in the TRASNPORT sectordue to increase in a number of vehicles in the recent decade. • For the last 15 years the structure of the GHG emissions significantly changed. In 1990 the ENERGY sector contributed majority (70%) of the total emissions, AGRICULTURE 20%, INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 10% and WASTE 3%. However, in 2003-2005 due to the overall economic decline and energy crisis situation changed. The contribution by the ENERGYSECTOR reduced to 30%, while the share of AGRICULTURAL SECTOR increased to 50% of the total.

14. Decrease of CO2 in the energy sector is mostly due to decreased fossil fuel use and energy crisis

15. Energy use and consumption

16. SNC process and benefits:Climate change policy and mitigation • Climate change policy: - Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by TAJ in 2008 - Adoption of the National Programme of renewable energy development for 2007-2015 - Follow-up the National Action Plan on climate change mitigation • Mitigation activities: - Development of renewable energy, mainly hydropower (in the last decade about 20 small and medium HPPs were installed) - Energy efficiency (new energy efficient equipment and electronic devices installed in the key energy-intense industry such as Tajik Aluminum Plant; transportation network improved) - Plans for substantial growth of hydropower production by 2015-20 - Afforestation efforts

17. Key challenges in preparation of the TJK SNC: • Lack of human and technical capacity to: - model long-term climate change scenarios and impacts in the mountains and valleys of Tajikistan - long-term forecast of water resource availability in of the main rivers of Tajikistan (cross-border) • Lack of legal instruments to implement climate change initiatives and projects at the national level • Lack of awareness among policy-makers to proceed with climate change mitigation and adaptation

18. Next steps:Prospects for the subsequent National Communications • Climate change and national security : cross-sector linkages • Update of the national GHG Inventory • Assessment of the potential to reduce GHG emissions in residential and industrial sectors through CDM projects aiming at energy efficiency and development of renewables • Long-term water availability in the main rivers of Tajikistan and strategic implications for the Central Asian region • Long-term prediction of climate change and consideration of the indicators other than T and Precipitation (e.g. humidity, frequency of extreme weather events, snow accumulation in the mountains, etc.) • Increase in climate change research: exploration of paleoclimate in the mountains, impact of climate change on flora and fauna, glaciers. • Popularisation of climate change findings and concerns among the policy-makers and the general public

19. Thank you for your attention! Ilhomjon Rajabov Head of climate change center, Agency on Hydrometeorology. 47 shevchenko str, Dushanbe Tajikistan Tel/Fax: +992 372 27 61 81 E-mail: ilhomrajabov@mail.ru www.meteo.tj