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What Does the Election of Yanukovych Mean for Ukraine?

What Does the Election of Yanukovych Mean for Ukraine?. Taras Kuzio IERES, George Washington University 12 February 2012. Why Tymoshenko Lost. Incumbent: Sitting Prime Minister during global crisis.

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What Does the Election of Yanukovych Mean for Ukraine?

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  1. What Does the Election of Yanukovych Mean for Ukraine? Taras Kuzio IERES, George Washington University 12 February 2012

  2. Why Tymoshenko Lost • Incumbent: Sitting Prime Minister during global crisis. • Political Culture: twice convicted felon, uncouth, intellectually weak and male chauvinist. • Gender: male patriarchal view of women prevalent.

  3. Why Tymoshenko Lost • Yushchenko Factor: • 2008-09: Yushchenko attacked Tymoshenko but ignored Yanukovych; • December 2009: leaked document outlining Yushchenko-Yanukovych alliance; • both candidates the same; • both are ‘Moscow projects’; • supported by nationalists in Galicia; • Anti-semitic leaflets against Tymoshenko; • S.Bandera ‘Hero of ukraine’ decree : suspicious timing;

  4. Why Tymoshenko Lost • Negative Voting: some voters refused to again vote negatively. • Damaged Goods: • spring 2009 coalition negotiations; • Lozinsky murder affair and his absconding from justice; • Election Campaign: • Yanukovych better focused campaign; • American advisers; • Populist Yanukovych billboards appealed to working class and pensioner voters;

  5. Why Tymoshenko Lost • Desire for Change: • Voters fed up with five years of ‘orange’ squabbling and instability; • 20% gave votes to change candidates (S.Tihipko and A.Yatseniuk). Two thirds were former ‘orange’ voters and some did not vote in round 2; • Oligarchs: majority of oligarchs supported Yanukovych out of fear of Tymoshenko’s anti-corruption, re-nationalisation and anti-oligarch rhetoric. • Election Fraud: • artificial low turnout in Western Ukraine; • fraud in Regions strongholds: Donetsk, Crimea, Odesa.

  6. Yanukovych Election: Domestic Policies • No autocephalous Orthodox Church; • Russian as a second state language; • 1933 famine no longer described as ‘genocide’; • Re-writing of history school textbooks in areas which touch on relations with Russia; • Economic policies that favour big business; • Return of Free Economic Zones; • Continued virtual struggle against corruption; • Stagnation in the rule of law; • Crimea and Odesa: Russian extremists continue to entrench positions.

  7. Yanukovych Election: Foreign Policies DA NYET • Medvedev European Security Treaty; • Extension of Black Sea Fleet base beyond 2017; • Recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; • Join CIS Single Economic Space Customs Union; • Gas consortium with Russia established; • RosUkrEnergo returned. • NATO MAP or membership; • IMF Stand By Agreement revised; • 2010 gas contract revised;

  8. Yanukovych Election: Parliament Re-Format Coalition Pre-Term Elections • Coalition 1: Current. • Coalition 2: Regions, KPU, Lytvyn bloc: 219. Could add part of Our Ukraine; • Coalition 3: • Regions and Our Ukraine, giving PM to Our Ukraine; • Insufficient votes covered by Lytvyn bloc, KPU. • Little support from Lytvyn bloc, KPU, Our Ukraine, BYuT; • Support by Yushchenko (Our Ukraine), Yatseniuk, Tihipko, Baloga; • Regions: Plan B.

  9. Post-Election Political Instability • Current Coalition: gridlock as Prime Minister and President in conflict. • Re-formatted Coalition: • Tymoshenko removed as PM; • BYuT goes into opposition; • Next elections in 2012; • Pre-Term Elections: • instability as Tymoshenko would (as in Fall 2008) seek to block elections; • little support for elections in parliament.

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