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Den internationella dimensionen i miljöarbetet

Den internationella dimensionen i miljöarbetet. Adj Prof. Johan Kuylenstierna Executive Director Stockholm Environment Institute. Energi , mat... Klimat, vatten, mark... Utmaningar, möjligheter... Växande och krympande värld. ”Hyperconnected and globalized world”.

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Den internationella dimensionen i miljöarbetet

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  1. Den internationella dimensionen i miljöarbetet Adj Prof. Johan Kuylenstierna Executive Director Stockholm Environment Institute

  2. Energi , mat... Klimat, vatten, mark... Utmaningar, möjligheter... Växande och krympande värld...

  3. ”Hyperconnected and globalized world” World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2011

  4. “The past 20 years….substantial progress….. Most people…… healthier, live longer, are more educated and have more access to goods and services……… also in expanding people’s power to select leaders, influence public decisions and share knowledge. “ UNDP 2010. Human Development Report 2010. Summary. 20th Anniversary Edition. The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development. (UNDP) www.brookings.edu www2.warwick.ac.uk

  5. Mega cities 1950 Mega cities 2015 Källa: U.N. Population Division Source:U.N. Population Division 7,231,108,460 5 maj, 14:27:37

  6. The world economy has more than doubled since 1980 and is expected to almost double by 2030 India • Real GDP1by region, 1980 – 2030 • USD trillions CAGR, 1980 - 2010 Rest of Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa 93 5 Latin America 4% China OECD Asia Pacific Europe and Eurasia 10% North America 50 3% 3 3 4 2% 22 2 3 3% 2010 2030 1980 1 Real GDP: Real GDP (constant 2005 US$). Mexico is included in Latin America. SOURCE: Projection from USDA(ERS), Actual data from World Bank

  7. The middle class could grow by 3 billion people by 2030 • Global middle class • Billions of people 4.88 0.11 0.23 0.31 0.32 3.25 0.68 3 billion 0.06 0.17 0.25 1.85 0.33 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.70 0.03 0.11 Middle East and North Africa 0.18 3.23 Central and South America 0.34 North America 1.74 0.66 Europe Asia-Pacific 0.53 2009 2020 2030 SOURCE: Resource Revolution, McKinsey Global Institute

  8. IPCC 5th Assessment Report

  9. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Source: IPCC AR5 WG1

  10. Asia now accounts for ~46% of global emissions, but emissions per capita are still much lower than in North America GHG emissions, including land use change and forestry, by region, 2010 % of global total emissions • GHG emissions per capita in 2010, tCO2e per capita • Million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalents 46% 21,325 Asia 17% 7,836 Europe 16% 7,502 North America Latin America & the Caribbean 11% 4,936 9% 4,108 Africa 2% Oceania 2 Per capita target for staying within2 degrees of global temperature rise SOURCE: World Resources Institute CAIT

  11. Energikonsumtion per person (Btu)

  12. More fossil than we can burn New research shows listed companies inflate the carbon bubble by $674billion a year. 60-80% of listed companies’ fossil fuel reserves are ‘unburnable’, but $6trillion each decade is spent to develop more Source: Carbon Tracker: http://www.carbontracker.org/

  13. Tillväxt, primärenergi OECD/EIS, 2013

  14. OECD/EIS, 2013

  15. Vatten som begränsa(n)d(e) resurs Picture Source: Dr. Daniel Vermeer, Director, Global Water Partnerships, The Coca-Cola Company

  16. Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

  17. Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants (2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)

  18. Livsmedels(o)trygghet Source: von Grebmer et al. 2011

  19. Jordbruksmark som strategisk resurs Source: FAO/SOLAW

  20. Phosphorus Price Soared in 2007-2008 World Bank Commodity Price Data (2010)

  21. Konsumtion och förluster

  22. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962)

  23. Generationsmålet…..

  24. ”..lösa sina stora miljöproblem ”utan att orsaka ökade miljö- och hälsoproblem utanför Sveriges gränser”.

  25. ”Sverige saknar strategi för trygg livsmedelsförsörjning” DN Debatt, 31 december 2012

  26. Vilken roll kommerpolitikenattspela? Economist, April 2013 http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/business/reports A resource-efficient Europe – Flagship initiative of the Europe 2020 Strategy (http://ec.europa.eu/resource-efficient-europe/)

  27. Hållbarhetsmålen post 2015 • Action-oriented • Concise • Easy to communicate • Limited in number • Aspirational • Global in nature • Universally applicable to all countries while taking into account different national realities, capacities and levels of development and respecting national policies and priorities.

  28. "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." • Einstein • Tack! • johan.kuylenstiernaSE@sei-international.org

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