Population, Demography, and the Environment

1. Population, Demography, and the Environment

2. Population (millions)

3. Malthus • Malthus (1798) predicted that because, • Pop increases in a “geometrical ratio” and • The resources for survival, especially food, increase only in an “arithmetical ratio.” • Thus need to control fertility (via moral constraint, marriage postponement) or pop will deplete resources, cause famine, disease, war. • Assumed a moral superiority of elites and legitimated colonization • But predictions of decline in resources with pop growth have not been borne out; popularity because legitimated interests of elites

4. Modernization: The Demographic Transition • Modernization theory attempted to explain global inequality as a result of different levels of economic and cultural progress rather than as a set of innate, inherited or moral characteristics. • Green Revolution • Demographic Transition Theory

5. Green Revolution • Green revolution refers to a series of technological innovations in the production of food crops that were designed to increase global food productivity • System of Agriculture • Monocropping • Mechanization (tractors, irrigation, etc) • Chemical fertilizers and pesticides • High yield varieties (HYVs) • Advanced genetic and biotechnology

6. Green Revolution • Created additional and distinctly modern problems • Monocrop systems, especially HYVs, typically required higher levels of chemical inputs • Salinization • Decrease in biodiversity in neighboring nonagricultural lands • Higher water demands of mechanized industrial agriculture • Raised the cost of production (favored large producers) • Mechanization reduced demands for labor displacing rural labor force—workers relocate to cities • Nutritional deficiencies due to monocropping

7. Demographic Transition • Population increase in the periphery has resulted from decreased mortality (death) rates, especially in infants, attributable to medical advancements, better nutrition, and improved sanitation; and birth rates that remained unchanged. • When family planning norms adjust to longer life expectancy and higher survival rates, population growth will slow and stabilize

8. Neo-Malthusian • Ehrlich (1968) tries to avoid elitism of Malthus but remains focused on idea of carrying capacity • Impact = P X A X T P: reflects population C: indicates the level of affluence and thus consumption by the population T: reflects the type of technology used by those people.

9. Ecological Footprint • Can measure impact as the amount of land necessary to sustain consumption and absorb wastes • See table 9.2 (p. 114) Africa 7.48 ha North America 95.99 ha • Neo-Malthusians argue that all components of equation (I = P x A x T) must decrease to avoid famine, disease, war.

10. Controlling Population • Efforts to lower birth and infant mortality rates have focused on increasing the economic security, health and education of women. • Slowing the birth rate has been tried through • government policies (with incentives and ramifications) like China with success but problems; • sterilization programs like in India (largely unsuccessful) • birth control and family planning sponsored by the Global North (met with some resistance)

11. Critiques • Lack of discussion about distribution of people and resources. • Population concentration in cities has meant: • dependence on industrial agriculture; • Organic waste to landfills rather than back to land; • Overburdened natural systems & pollution • Famines and poverty caused by unequal distribution rather than lack of food e.g. agricultural land devoted to luxury crops like tea or to grow food for cattle instead of humans

12. Critiques • A focus on population in the Global South may reflect fear of increased immigration to the North. • Regardless of the relative size and economic importance of immigrant groups, many people see newcomers as a population problem framed as an environmental problem of strain on local resources and a result of “overpopulation” in the South.

13. Ecuador Case Study • Population was concentrated in Sierra region (central)

14. Ecuador Case Study • European colonization altered where people lived and methods of agriculture, increasing coastal living (west) and plantations in Sierra and coastal regions for export. • Oil was discovered in the Oriente (east) in the latter half of 20th century and population began to increase in this region

15. Ecuador Case Study • There is not a direct correlation between population growth and environmental degradation (e.g. Sierra with lowest growth has the most direct impact on forests because squatters use forest for immediate needs) • Relationship between food production and population growth makes no sense on a national scale with global food markets

16. Ecuador Case Study • Plantations in Sierra and on coast have removed best land from local food production and farmers in Oriente (Amazon) clear land for urban markets; both transfer reason for food production from supporting population to supporting economy • Consumer pressure for green products may have more impact than population control