Demography & Population

1. Demography & Population APES Ch 7

2. Two Demographic Worlds • Developing countries are poor (15%), young, and rapidly growing. • India, China, Bolivia (S. America), Congo (Africa) • Contain 81% of world population, and will account for 90% of projected growth. • Incomes of 3$/person/day and less • Developed countries are wealthy (85%), old, and mostly shrinking. • United States, Japan, France • Populations often expected to decline.

3. Developing Countries • Developing countries tend to have severe overpopulation. This leads to: • Deforestation • Bare soil • Native animals driven to extinction • Malnutrition, starvation, disease • About 81% of the world’s population falls in this category • Only use 12-25% of the world’s resources 3

4. Developed Countries • Developed countries, while smaller in size and growth, consume resources at a greater rate. • About 19% of the world’s population uses 88% of its resources. Creating 75% if the world’s waste. • Higher life expectancy, wealth, energy use, pollution and waste. 4

5. Developing and Developed Countries Source: Holt Environmental Science, Arms, 2007 5

6. Estimated Human Population Growth

7. Measurements of Population Growth • Birth Rates - Number of births per 1000 women per year. • Developing countries = ~20 • Developed countries = ~10 • Total Fertility Rate – • Congo = 4.41 (developing) • India = 2.68 (developing) • U.S. = 2.1 (developed) • The replacement level is when you have 2.1 – 2.5 children per couple.

8. Theory of Demographic Transition • A four phase process that describes the transition of a country as it moves from a subsistence economy to industrialization and increased affluence, it undergoes a predictable shift in population growth. • Phase 1: Slow Population Growth • Phase 2: Rapid Population Growth • Phase 3: Stable Population Growth • Phase 4: Declining Population Growth

10. Phase 1 – Slow Growth • Phase 1 (Pre-industrial): • Steady state – population will not change quickly • High birth & death rates (match each other) • Short life expectancy is short due to difficult and dangerous working conditions • High Infant mortality rate due to disease, lack of health care, & poor sanitation • Children are an asset – do jobs for family • Lesotho is in Phase 1 due to HIV/AIDS

11. Phase 2 – Rapid Growth • Phase 2 – Transitional • Death rates decline while birth rates remain high • CBR remains high due to population momentum as families still have many children & lag time to implement education & birth control measures. • Better sanitation, clean drinking water, increased access to food & health care reduce infant mortality rate CDR. • India is in phase 2 today

12. Phase 3 - Stable • Phase 3 – Industrial • Economy & educational systems improve • Family income increases; have fewer children & CBR falls • Having large numbers of children becomes a financial burden but cultural, societal, and religious norms may play a part • Both CBR and CDR decrease & population growth levels off. • USA and Canada are Phase 3

14. Phase 4 - Declining • Phase 4 – Post Industrial • Declining population, high level of affluence & economic development • Higher proportion of elderly people. Few people in labor force, pension programs, social security puts a tax burden on the working population • Japan, UK, Germany, Russia, and Italy are in phase 4 • TFR increases after hitting a low. Such patterns can be seen in Norway, Italy, & US

15. Family Planning • Fertility rates decrease when: • Family income increases • Higher levels of education/affluence. Especially among females. • Delaying first pregnancy till older • Why? • Delay having children due to demands of school & work • Better access to birth control • Interact with partners as equals • Family planning – regulate the number and spacing of offspring

17. Family Planning • Effective family planning campaigns: • Kenya in 1970’s reduced TFR by half (from 8 to 4) in the 1990’s • Gov’t encouraged smaller families appealing to the idea that overpopulation lead to unemployment and use of condoms. • Thailand in 1970’s gov’t encouraged couples to practice birth control • Contraceptive use increased from 15 to 70% w/in 15 years • Growth rate fell from 3.2 to 1.6%; today rate is 0.6%

18. Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates Advantages of Family Planning: • Increase the proportion of married women in developing countries who use birth control • 50% drop in TFR since 1950 • Reducing the number of legal and illegal abortions • Decreasing the risk of death form pregnancy Unfortunately, 42% of all pregnancies in LDC’s are unplanned and 26% end in abortion. Many women, 250-350 million, want to limit the number and determine the spacing of their children, but they lack access to services.

19. Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates Future Goals: • Expanding family planning to include teenagers and sexually active unmarried women who are often excluded. • Pro-choice and pro-life groups to join forces in greatly reducing unplanned births and abortions, especially among teenagers • Programs to educate men about having fewer children and taking more responsibility for raising them • Increased research on developing new, more effective, and more acceptable birth control methods for men

20. Empowering Women to Reduce Birth Rates • Women tend to have fewer children when they have access to education and jobs outside the home and live in societies in which their rights are not suppressed. • Most analysts believe that women everywhere should have full legal rights and opportunity to become educated and earn income outside the home. • Not possible without a great deal of social changes in many of the male-dominated societies of today.

21. Population & the Environment • Population & economic development are not equally distributed around the world thus, human impact on natural resources are also unequally distributed. • People in developed countries may have 2 to 10 times the environmental impact as people in developing countries • Population disparity between rich & poor has accelerated in recent years • 9 of the 12 most populous nations are developing countries • Populations of impoverished countries are increasing rapidly while affluent countries are stable or declining

22. Ecological footprint measures the effect of affluence (money, goods, property) on the planet. Measured in hectares.

23. The IPAT Equation • To estimate the impact of human lifestyles on Earth, environmental scientists developed the IPAT Equation: • Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

24. IPAT Equation • Conceptual representation of the factors that influence environmental impact: • Population – straightforward effect on impact. Two people consume more than one • Affluence – not straightforward effect on impact. The more affluent a society is, the higher the environmental impact. • Technology – complicated; can either degrade an environment or create solutions to minimize impact. • CFC’s = safe & effective refrigeration but destroyed ozone • Electric cars reduce impact on environment

25. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • Blue Print for sustainable development: • Completed in 2005 at request from UN • Global analysis of the effects of human population on ecosystem services such as clean water, forest products, and natural resources • Conclusions: • Human demand for ecosystem services led to a large and irreversible loss of biodiversity • Ecosystem sustainability threatened in population continues along current path • If we establish sustainable practices, we may be able to improve standard of living for a large number of people