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Swedish long term planning

Swedish long term planning. PERP ”Perspective studies ”. PERP 4 officers 3 analysists 1 secretary Workinggroup. Concept 2025 in relation to development plan 2011-2020. 2010. 2014. 2020. 2025. 2030. Decided development plan. Concept 2025. Dev.plan 2011-2020. Future needs. 3.

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Swedish long term planning

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  1. Swedish long term planning PERP ”Perspective studies ”

  2. PERP 4 officers 3 analysists 1 secretary Workinggroup

  3. Concept 2025 in relation to development plan 2011-2020 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 Decided development plan Concept 2025 Dev.plan 2011-2020 Future needs 3

  4. Method Global military strategic trends and challenges Widened spectrum of conflict Factors of importance Prolonged development plan PERP 2010 Future ideas The concept will be the base for changes of the ”fighting power” in terms of physical, moral and conceptual factors 2014-09-19 4

  5. Perp 2009 Military strategic trends 2014-09-19 5

  6. Military strategic trends

  7. Continued transformation of armed forces worldwide

  8. Ökat behov av strategiska och operativa samarbeten Increased need for strategic and operative international cooperation

  9. Increased need for coordination between military and civilian resources

  10. Information technology changes the preconditions for use of armed forces

  11. New technology gives new military possibilities

  12. Increase threat from weapons of mass destruction and other means with massive effects (can be ”non military”)

  13. WMD

  14. PERP 2010 Ideas and vision 14

  15. PERP 2009 World analysis, Global challenges, Military strategic trends Factors of importance Possible ideas Ideas Alternative visions Proposed vision

  16. Factors of influence ReguljärtHög statlig inblandning (mellanstatligt) hög organanisationsnivå Lågintensivt våld Tillåtande miljö Högintensivt våld Icke tillåtande miljö Konfliktspektret grundmodell IrreguljärtLåg statlig inblandning (statslöst)låg organanisationsnivå 16

  17. Idea F ReguljärtHög statlig inblandning (mellanstatligt) hög organanisationsnivå Lågintensivt våld Tillåtande miljö Högintensivt våld Icke tillåtande miljö Konfliktspektret grundmodell IrreguljärtLåg statlig inblandning (statslöst)låg organanisationsnivå 17

  18. Idea F • Which fighting power is characteristic for idea F ? • Physical factors • Conceptual factors • Moral factors Fighting power How shall the SwAF develop towards idea F ?

  19. Regular warfare DI GN CI EN E1N AN/I High intensive violence Non permissive environment Low intense Permissive Spectrum of conflict FN F1N BN B1N N = nationell fokusI = internationell fokusMarinblå = alliansLjusblås = ingen allians Irregular warfare

  20. 2014 Objective Vision + 10 year Now + 20 year C spectrum PERP 2010 D A1 Objective Målbild PERP 2009 Analysis world development SwAF Prolonged dev.plan A Vision A2 E Spectrum PERP 2010 B conducted 2011-2012 conducted 2010

  21. Regular warfare AN/I High intensive violence Non permissive environment Low intense Permissive Spectrum of conflict N = nationell fokusI = internationell fokusMarinblå = alliansLjusblås = ingen allians Irregular warfare

  22. Reguljärt (kvalificerad motståndare) Hög statlig inblandning (mellanstatligt) CoA CoA Air Mobility Air Mobility Attack Attack I & SA I & SA Icke tillåtande miljö Tillåtande miljö Spectrum of conflict Högintensivt våld Lågintensivt våld CoA CoA Air Mobility Air Mobility Attack Attack I & SA I & SA Irreguljärt (okvalificerad motståndare) Låg statlig inblandning (statslöst) Balancing the fighting power

  23. Regular warfare AN/I High intensive violence Non permissive environment Low intense Permissive Spectrum of conflict N = nationell fokusI = internationell fokusMarinblå = alliansLjusblås = ingen allians Irregular warfare

  24. 2008 The crisis in 2008 made a big impact on defense planners in sweden

  25. Regular warfare The impact of the Russia – Georgia war / crisis 2008 AN/I High intensive violence Non permissive environment Low intense Permissive Spectrum of conflict N = nationell fokusI = internationell fokusMarinblå = alliansLjusblås = ingen allians Irregular warfare

  26. Discussion How can small countries like Sweden and Georgia plan for the future ? Can future be forseen ? What do you think of the Swedish method for long term planning ? Is it possible to build a fighting power covering the whole spectrum of conflict ? What long term planning process does Georgia have ? Does it work ?

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