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First Results of the NO-REST Standards Impact Assessment

First Results of the NO-REST Standards Impact Assessment. Dr Knut Blind FhG-ISI Karlsruhe, Germany Dr Richard Hawkins TNO-STI Delft, Netherlands. Content. Trends Validation of Methodologies within NO-REST Business Models and Standardisation Dynamics Preliminary Survey Results

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First Results of the NO-REST Standards Impact Assessment

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  1. First Results of the NO-REST Standards Impact Assessment Dr Knut Blind FhG-ISI Karlsruhe, Germany Dr Richard Hawkins TNO-STI Delft, Netherlands

  2. Content Trends Validation of Methodologies within NO-REST Business Models and Standardisation Dynamics Preliminary Survey Results Dynamic Scenarios Policy Questions Outlook

  3. Trends Long tradition of R&D evaluation in Europe and the U.S. Long tradition of regulatory impact assessment only in the U.S., but recent upsurge in Europe Increasing competition between standardisation bodies Increasing self-regulation in Europe within the New Approach

  4. Validation of Methodologies within NO-REST

  5. 3. EMPIRICAL 4. SCENARIO 5. ACTION 2. MODELLING 1. AUDITING STANDARD(S) Validation of Impact Assessment Reference Model Application of busi-ness model approach to ICT-standards Case studies of ICT-standards Scenarios of impacts of ICT-standards Survey Presentation of policy issues at ETSI-workshop

  6. BusinessModels and Standardisation Dynamics linkingcommercialstrategies to standardisation demand

  7. ICT Producers The Standards Arena ICT Appliers ICT Consumers The Standardisation Stakeholder Triad

  8. Intermediation in the Standards Arena ICT Producers SDOs consortia industry associations public agencies ICT Appliers ICT Consumers

  9. Business Models and the Standardisation Environment Business models: • describe how firms earn revenues from goods and services • require coordination of technical and commercial systems • link technical coordination issues to real dynamics of networked organisations

  10. Originators Business modeling arena Consumers Intermediaries The Business Modelling Arena

  11. Standardizationarena Standards and Business Models Originators Business modeling arena ICT producers Consumers Intermediaries ICT appliers

  12. Choosing an Industry Segment to Demonstrate Modelling Dynamics • commercially and technologically pivotal to stakeholders, • relevant in such areas as e-commerce, e-business and public services, • illustrative of key dynamics

  13. Conceptual Elements of Broadband Service Platforms Application Middleware (incl. APIs, tools etc.) Broadband service platforms User interface Operating system Public network

  14. Commercial Strategies for Service Platforms • integrated platform strategy • dependent platform strategy • independent platform strategy

  15. Value Propositions • VP1: vendor specificity – e.g. MS Windows for mobile • VP2: vendor neutrality – e.g. Symbian (Parlay?) • VP3: vendor by-pass – e.g. Java 2 Micro Edition

  16. Origin-ators Inter-med-iaries Users Business modelling arena Traditional Stakeholder Positions in Telecom Service Platforms PTOs & telecom equipment vendors end-user product & service providers computer & software vendors

  17. PTOs & telecom equipment vendors Origin-ators Inter-med-iaries end-user product & service providers Users computer & software vendors Business modelling arena The Current Dynamic Environment for Broadband Service Platforms

  18. VP1 – specificity (integrated platforms) VP2 – neutrality (dependent platforms) HIERARCHY COMMUNITY VP3 – by-pass (independent platforms) ThePolarity of Value Propositions

  19. Fluid Stakeholder Alignments VP1 – specificity VP2 – neutrality VP3 – by-pass originators HIERARCHY COMMUNITY intermediaries users

  20. Business Model Clustering data traffic generation Broadband service platform retail service sales advertising tool licence service end users public data network wholesale platform access operating system license wholesale network access

  21. Preliminary Survey Results • Approach • Descriptive Results • Correlations

  22. Preliminary Survey Results: Approach • Online survey among ETSI-members and CEN/ISSS participants between February and May 2005 • Due to very low response, revision (shorter and simpler) of ETSI questionnaire • Meanwhile almost 50 responses • High item-non-response in the quantitative impact assessment part • Mostly descriptive statistics and some selected correlations • Plans: further reminder in next CEN/ISSS newsletter and survey among ITU members supported by ITU

  23. Preliminary Survey Results • Changes how standards are made • formal standards bodies should take a greater coordination • cost of monitoring and participating in consortia has raised the overall costs of standardisation • standards developed in consortia should not necessarily be developed through formal standards institutions

  24. Preliminary Survey Results • The mandatory and voluntary dimension of standards • companies cannot operate in their principal markets unless they apply "voluntary" standards • some consortia standards are likewise essential

  25. Preliminary Survey Results: The evolution of standards disagreement ambivalent agreement

  26. Preliminary Survey Results: Impacts of formal standards (1) positive very positive

  27. Preliminary Survey Results: Impacts of formal standards (2) positive very positive

  28. Preliminary Survey Results • Correlation of impact dimension (formal standards): • standards increase global production possibilities and therefore also product variety • standards increase the quality of procured components and therefore also product variety • the higher the speed of development caused by standards the higher their positive impact on profitability • the higher the degree of adoption caused by standards the higher their positive impact on profitability • the higher the positive impact on market concentration, the higher their positive impact on profitability

  29. Dynamic scenarios for standardisation COMMUNITY HIERARCHY R&D strategy

  30. Dynamicscenarios for standardisation … UPSTREAM coordination strategy DOWNSTREAM

  31. UPSTREAM COMMUNITY HIERARCHY DOWNSTREAM Dynamic scenarios for standardisation …

  32. UPSTREAM COMMUNITY HIERARCHY DOWNSTREAM Dynamic scenarios for standardisation … Formal

  33. UPSTREAM COMMUNITY HIERARCHY DOWNSTREAM Dynamic scenarios for standardisation … Informal Formal

  34. UPSTREAM Informal Proprietary Formal COMMUNITY HIERARCHY DOWNSTREAM Dynamic scenarios for standardisation …

  35. UPSTREAM Proprietary Informal Formal COMMUNITY HIERARCHY DOWNSTREAM Future scenarios: increased vendor specificity

  36. UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Future scenarios: increasedvendorneutrality Informal HIERARCHY COMMUNITY Formal Prop.

  37. UPSTREAM COMMUNITY HIERARCHY DOWNSTREAM Future scenarios: increasedvendorby-pass Informal Formal Prop.

  38. Policy Issues • Policy response to the negative impacts of proprietary standards (e.g. conflict between IPR and standardisation policies) • Reconciling the industry impact of standards with the policy impacts • Speed of standards development as critical policy aspect? • Role of standards for vertical market structure (e.g. outsourcing) • Role of standards for market concentration • Strategic issues of standards are more important than their cost effects

  39. Outlook • Extension of the survey • Application of more sophisticated statistical methodologies • Further case studies for granularity • Development of indicator based studies • Validation of other impact methodologies • Guidelines for impact assessment framework • Application of impact assessment methodology to a specific standard

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