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The Limits of Technology

The Limits of Technology. Peter Kilborn International Supply Chain Meeting, Frankfurt 2009. The book is dead. The book is dead. Or was it just DK?. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication. Change. Why does it take so long?

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The Limits of Technology

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  1. The Limits of Technology Peter Kilborn International Supply Chain Meeting, Frankfurt 2009 _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  2. The book is dead. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  3. The book is dead. Or was it just DK? _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  4. Change • Why does it take so long? • Why does it behave irrationally? • Why does it sometimes not happen at all? _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  5. ‘Analysts agree that a genuine mass market for consumer CD-ROM is now emerging in the US and Europe is expected to follow within the next year to eighteen months.’ - Information Market Observatory, December 1995 _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  6. 'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers' - Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 'There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in the home' - Ken Olsen, founder, Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  7. ‘Is Reed Elsevier going to be ‘the first victim of the Internet’ as the US business magazine Forbes recently suggested? The UK stock market certainly seems to be taking these reports seriously… The sharp drop in the … share price is a warning that many other publishers in the scientific field would do well to heed.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  8. ‘Simon & Schuster US has unveiled its first ebooks list. It is the latest in a tide of publishers to enter the US e-book market, which is believed to be on the point of explosion.’ - The Bookseller, September 2000 ‘Andersen Consulting has estimated that worldwide sales of e-books could hit $2.3bn (£1.5bn) in five years.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  9. Fast forward to 2010 - The Bookseller, September 1999 _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  10. ‘Anything can be presented on an e-book reader or printed on demand, the two dominant delivery mechanisms for books 10 years from now.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  11. ‘E-book devices exist in a dizzying variety of configurations (though all are comfortably under £100 in today’s money)’. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  12. ‘Terrestrial bookstores will offer POD capabilities.’ ‘Home printing of books has become common.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  13. ‘Publishing technologies have evolved to suit the times. Copies of lead titles, perhaps 2000 each year, are printed centrally for visible display in stores. The majority of titles... are available only as e-books or printed books on demand.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  14. ‘’ ‘The rights issues that prevented legacy backlist from becoming available in e-books or POD have disappeared for many titles.’ ‘For authors these changes have brought some downside: most books published are written with no advance.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  15. What went wrong? • Aversion to change • Lack of strategic vision • Vested interests • Lack of collaboration • Misguided opportunism • The market • Fear _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  16. ‘Publishers are "insulting" readers by expecting them to pay equivalent prices for e-books as for hardback versions.’ ‘"We are kidding ourselves if we think we can charge the same for an e-book as we do for a print copy. Most ridiculous of all is charging the same as a hardback - we are insulting our audience to do that. If, and they will, e-books start to encroach on print sales, we have to find another way of dealing with that."’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  17. ‘E-books, if successful, will sink the trade publishing industry.’ - Evan Schnittman, March 2009 _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  18. E-books are ‘effectively sold on a consignment basis. That means… that they cannot generate short-term cash flow like print books do.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  19. ‘…to have our Ponzi scheme and e-books too’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  20. A world of e-books • Reaching the consumer • No means of discovery • No way to brand or promote • Fundamental disruptive change in the publishing business _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  21. ‘E-book readers will be introduced in the UK later this year, and have already proved popular with American users. From the Barnes & Noble web site, user comments include: ‘I don’t know how I got along without it’, ‘I will never go back to paper again; the future has arrived and it’s great.’ - Bookseller June 2000 _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  22. ‘I didn’t understand all of the failings of a physical book, because I’m inured to them. But you can’t turn the page with one hand. The book is always flopping itself shut at the wrong moment.’ _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  23. Publishers will continue to depend on the printed book and the processes which accompany the publication of printed books as the bedrock of their businesses for at least another decade and probably much longer. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  24. Most digital content will be accessed through multi-functional devices, notably the mobile phone, or through smaller and more consumer-friendly laptops and tablets. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  25. POD will grow and become mainstream for backlist; but it won’t fulfil the original promise of providing true distributed print worldwide. Quality and range of options will continue to improve. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  26. Booksellers will struggle - but survive, and in niche areas prosper. The days of the high street book shop chains are numbered… _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  27. The Espresso machine will remain a niche technology and may not find a role. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  28. Agents and authors will gradually accept that digital rights naturally belong with printed book rights and are better exploited together. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  29. There will be new trading partners muscling in on the book world’s traditional space; and it may not be a pretty sight. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  30. Publishers will see a return on investment for all the money they’ve put into digitization. _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

  31. Peter Kilborn Book Industry Communication http://www.bic.org.uk peter@bic.org.uk _______________________________________________________Book Industry Communication

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