Raising the profile of housing in the British Isles

1. Raising the profile of housing in the British Isles Gavin Smart, Deputy Chief Executive

2. Overall context

3. Recovery - A long haul Source: NIESR

4. Unequal recovery?

5. A nation of borrowers

6. Growth of market renting

7. House prices

8. Housing Affordability

9. Government housing investment

10. Housing policy in the nations

11. Scotland • New Housing Act 2014 • Abolition of RTB - two year ‘notice period’ for existing eligible tenants - RTB ends 2016 • Bedroom tax – transfer of DHP with a view to “full mitigation” • Continuation of social rent • Housing, health and social care integration • All unintentional homeless entitled to secure accommodation – homelessness applications down 40% • What happens post-referendum?

12. Northern Ireland • Continuing debate around future/reform of NI Housing Exec • Possible introduction of planning gain for affordable housing • Northern Ireland RTB equivalent scheme in Housing Executive or HA tenants max discount £24,000 • Reductions in investment in affordable housing • Political appreciation of role of affordable housing • Major institutional reform – move to “super councils”

13. Wales • First Housing (Wales) Act next month • National PRS licensing scheme • New stat. duty to provide homeless prevention service for all • “Welsh solutions for Welsh problems” • Welsh housing bond • 10k Affordable homes target • Focus on developing cooperative housing • Renting homes act for whole-scale tenancy reform • Collaboration and coproduction - One-housing system under welsh government ‘system stewardship’ • Housing led regeneration • HRAs end March 2015 • RTB max discount £16k suspension allowed in areas of housing pressure for up to five years

14. England • 65% cut in Affordable Housing Programme & affordable rent • Increasing use of guarantees and financial instruments • £1bn to kick start institutionally funded market rent development • Also affordable housing guarantee • Welfare Reform – without mitigation • Localism • Strong focus on supply • Preference for incentives • Concentration on home ownership • Help to Buy – 1 and 2 • New regulatory framework • HRA reform - £300m extra, but caps in place

15. UK wide • Austerity – further cuts to come? £12bn more from welfare? • Welfare Reform – with some local variation • Social Security total spend • Financial Regulation e.g. Mortgage Market Review & Bank regulation • Interest rates

16. Conclusions • Devolution of housing policy is increasingly marked • Something of an England vs Devolved Nations flavour? • English housing policy very market driven with preference for “small state” approaches where possible • NI closest to English approach? • Devolved nations are not homogenous, but sense of similarity of approach/philosophy • Critical related policy and economic levers remain non-devolved

17. Housing and public opinion

18. The big issues today

19. The big issues long term

20. Where is housing?

21. Don’t (always) believe the papers - 1

22. Don’t (always) believe the papers - 2

23. Don’t (always) believe the papers - 3

24. Geographical differences

25. Housing and the Westminster election

26. Westminster election – some thoughts • Post-devolution Westminster relationship to housing beyond England indirect & harder to understand • But it can set the context • England can still export ideas elsewhere e.g. Welsh experiments with something like affordable rent • Currently less traffic the other way • Housing will be a key topic • Some English housing policy decisions will have Barnet consequences • Westminster still controls welfare, economics and tax & spend envelope

27. What happens after May 2015? • Differentiation continues • Continued “marketisation” in England? • Revival of social housing in England if Labour win? • Austerity remains • Wales & Scotland continue direction of travel • Does referendum adjust pace in Scotland? Or direction of travel too? • NI – big decisions still up for grabs

28. CIH & the Westminster election

29. Some headline asks from CIH • Increasing supply is critical • Great variety of products at more price points needed • Clear role for LCHO & social rent • Capital investment by government works • LAs can do more – borrowing caps raised or abolished • Standards are as important as numbers • Lifetime homes, wheelchair standard • We need new entrants to the market • Regeneration & neighbourhoods need more attention • PRS is critically important – policies needed to incentivise standards & reward performance • Bedroom Tax needs to go • Greater focus on older people & specialised housing more generally

30. How do we make the case for housing? • Clear, high level asks & easy to understand messages • Work together – concentrate on what we agree about • Homes for Britain • Demonstrate the problem and the consequences • Show what housing achieves • Outcomes matter • Housing supports other policy goals e.g. economic growth, health, education etc. • Good evidence is critical • Make the case yourself! Be a local advocate for housing • Engage with voters & with politicians

31. Conclusions

32. Conclusions • There is work to do in every part of the UK • Our national housing systems are related and still do not work well • Policy is increasingly differentiated • But we still speak broadly the same policy language • The public do care about housing – but they worry about it too… • Westminster election is important for housing • We can do more to make the case • And there is everything to play for!

33. Thank you Gavin.Smart@cih.org Follow me on Twitter: @GavinSmartCIH