MOVES: EPAs new generation mobile source emission model

1. MOVES: EPA=s new generation mobile source emission model

2. 2 What Is MOVES? MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator New software framework intended to: Replace MOBILE & NONROAD Expand Capabilities Additional Sources: Aircraft, Commercial Marine, Locomotive Additional Pollutants: Greenhouse Gases Additional Scope: Life Cycle Analysis

3. 3 Why A New Approach? Improve the science Requires data collection - especially in-use, on-road data Opportunity exists with new technology to vastly improve quality Improve the software Current questions exceed current tools Analyses at finer scales Cross-pollutant and cross-source impacts Toxics, PM, Greenhouse Gases Respond to external review National Research Council, �Modeling Mobile Source Emissions�

4. 4 Key Changes from MOBILE Inventory estimation MOBILE estimates emission factors (grams/mile) Multi-scale analysis Emission rates on modal basis MOBILE rates based on aggregate driving cycles Software framework Relational database structure Graphical User Interface Object-oriented programming approach At this point is important to step back and look at the key differences between MOVES and MOBILE, listed here. At this point is important to step back and look at the key differences between MOVES and MOBILE, listed here.

5. 5 MOVES2004 � the first step On-road energy (total, petroleum, fossil) and emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O U.S., state or county level 1999 through 2050 Well-to-Pump energy/emissions via GREET Broad range of �what-if� analyses Foundation for full MOVES implementation

6. 6 MOVES Long-Term Schedule Current thinking is that MOVES would not replace MOBILE6 or NONROAD in time to be used for 8-hour SIP analyses Specific milestones MOVES2005: Draft Aircraft, Commercial Marine, Locomotives MOVES2006: Final A/CM/L, Draft on-road criteria pollutants & toxics MOVES2007: Final on-road (MOBILE6 replacement), Draft off-road

7. 7 MOVES Software Framework Language: Java� Fleet, activity, emission rate data stored in relational database Open-source relational database system (MySQL�) Graphical user interface or batch mode Designed for single or multiple-computer processing

8. MOVES2004 GUI (Main Window)

9. Geography

10. Vehicle/Fuel Choices

11. Time Spans

12. Roadway Types

13. Pollutants/Processes

14. 14 Default Fleet & Activity Data Sources R.L. Polk Registration data, especially used for light duty VIUS97 Census survey of truck data FHWA VMT data and registration data Annual Energy Outlook (NEMS) VMT and technology projections Driving Surveys Real-worlds driving patterns by source type, road type, average speed

16. Advanced Technologies in MOVES

17. Advanced Vehicle & Fuel Strategy

18. Life Cycle � The Big Picture

19. GREET Pathway Options

20. MOVES/GREET provides unprecedented �what-if� capability Now on the implementation. The scope is huge, so we�re breaking it up into pieces to make it manageable, make sure it works, and give users a chance to ramp up. Three basic implementations�Now on the implementation. The scope is huge, so we�re breaking it up into pieces to make it manageable, make sure it works, and give users a chance to ramp up. Three basic implementations�

21. 21 Looking Ahead� Aircraft, Commercial Marine, Locomotive On-road criteria pollutant/toxics Evaporative emissions High emitter and I/M design Multi-scale implementation Includes coordination with DOT on TRANSIMS

23. Custom Implementations

24. 24 Planned Implementations U.S. National Inventory (macroscale) Default county-level emissions Local inventory development with user-supplied inputs On-road, off-road, aircraft, commercial marine, locomotives Link-Based (mesoscale) Based on output from travel demand model Intersection Modeling (microscale) In conjunction with CAL3QHC TRANSIMS MOVES will replace current emission module That completes the top-level design of the model. Now we talk about the specific implementations we plan to build, or support building. As mentioned the bulk of implementation will happen in the generators, specifically the total activity and operating mode distribution generators. For the first three implementation we�ve developed specific mathematical formulations for these generators, which I�ll walk through in a very general wayThat completes the top-level design of the model. Now we talk about the specific implementations we plan to build, or support building. As mentioned the bulk of implementation will happen in the generators, specifically the total activity and operating mode distribution generators. For the first three implementation we�ve developed specific mathematical formulations for these generators, which I�ll walk through in a very general way

25. 25 Long-Term Plan Custom implementations developed by users to meet specific use cases, e.g. State-specific implementation Commercial transportation models New generation dispersion models Control strategies That completes the top-level design of the model. Now we talk about the specific implementations we plan to build, or support building. As mentioned the bulk of implementation will happen in the generators, specifically the total activity and operating mode distribution generators. For the first three implementation we�ve developed specific mathematical formulations for these generators, which I�ll walk through in a very general wayThat completes the top-level design of the model. Now we talk about the specific implementations we plan to build, or support building. As mentioned the bulk of implementation will happen in the generators, specifically the total activity and operating mode distribution generators. For the first three implementation we�ve developed specific mathematical formulations for these generators, which I�ll walk through in a very general way

28. 28 MOVES Resources Web site: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/ngm.htm Email Listserver: EPA-MOBILENEWS Email address: mobile@epa.gov