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Foundational issues in risk assessment and mangement Misconceptions of Risk

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Foundational issues in risk assessment and mangement Misconceptions of Risk

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    1. Foundational issues in risk assessment and mangement Misconceptions of Risk Terje Aven University of Stavanger, Norway

    6. Terminology Risk analysis Risk Vulnerability Hazard …

    7. For the risk fields to become scientific disciplines: Well-defined and commonly understood terms

    8. Society of Risk Analysis (SRA) Early and mid 80s: Impossible to reach consensus

    9. Society of Risk Analysis (SRA) risk analysis is broadly defined to include risk assessment, risk characterization, risk communication, risk management, and policy relating to risk, in the context of risks of concern to individuals, to public and private sector organizations, and to society at a local, regional, national, or global level.

    10. Society of Risk Analysis (SRA) A new initiative should be taken Establish a committee/panel We need the focus on foundational issues Previous attempts go many years back

    12. Misconception of risk Risk = expected loss

    13. For some experts “risk” equals expected loss of life expectancy (HM Treasury 2005, p. 33). Traditionally, hazmat transport risk is defined as the expected undesirable consequence of the shipment, i.e. the probability of a release incident multiplied by its consequence (Verma and Verter 2007). Risk is defined as the expected loss to a given element or a set of elements resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude (Lirer et al. 2001). Risk refers to the expected loss associated with an event. It is measured by combining the magnitudes and probabilities of all of the possible negative consequences of the event (Mandel 2007). Terrorism risk (Willis 2007): The expected consequences of an existent threat, which for a given target, attack mode, target vulnerability, and damage type, can be expressed as the probability that an attack occurs multiplied by the expected damage, given that an attack occurs. Flood risk is defined as expected flood damage for a given time period (Floodcite 2006).

    14.

    20. ISO 31000 Risk is often expressed in terms of a combination of the consequences of an event and the associated likelihood of occurrence.

    21. ISO 31000 Likelihood is defined as the chance of something happening, whether defined, measured or determined objectively or subjectively, quantitatively or qualitatively, and described using general terms or mathematically (such as a probability or a frequency over a given time period). Probability is defined as a measure of the chance of occurrence expressed as a number between 0 and 1

    23. Probability

    24. Risk

    27. The need for seeing beyond P How to treat uncertainties in a risk assessment context

    30. Aven, Renn, Rosa 2011. On the ontological status of the concept of risk. Safety Science.

    31. Extra

    32. Why do we need to see beyond P

    33. John offers you a game: throwing a die ”1,2,3,4,5”: 6 ”6”: -24

    34. Risk (C,P): 6 5/6 -24 1/6 Is based on an important assumption – the die is fair

    35. “Background knowledge”

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