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Climate Change Health Consequences & Healthy Solutions

Climate Change Health Consequences & Healthy Solutions. NCSE 16 January 2008. Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project?. 380 ppm. ?Small. 1. 280 ppm. Medium. CO 2. 180 ppm. Large Ice caps. 2. 460 CO 2 e. ? ppm CO 2 -equivalent. – SO x s + black soot =.

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Climate Change Health Consequences & Healthy Solutions

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  1. Climate Change Health Consequences & Healthy Solutions NCSE 16 January 2008

  2. Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project? 380 ppm ?Small 1 280 ppm Medium CO2 180 ppm Large Ice caps 2 460 CO2e ? ppm CO2-equivalent – SOxs + black soot = CO2 + NOxs + CFCs + methane + H2O 3 Albedo Ice melt is accelerating Sea level rise H2O vapor

  3. Deep Ocean Warming P Heat content in joules T 22 times Global Hydrological Cycle Arctic Sea ice Mt glac Antarctic Atm Cont glac Cont Ocean Levitus et al. Science 2005

  4. CO2, Climate Change and Health In our Backyards Mold Pollen Heatwaves & smog Particulates & pollen WNV Poison Ivy Tree pollen Stalks 2X CO2 Lyme Ragweed Mushroom spores

  5. Stabilization Wedges 7 Natural Sinks 9. Forest mgmt/nurturing 10. Conservation tillage Energy Efficiency & Conservation 1. Public transport; plug-in hybrids 2. ‘Smart grid’ – distribution, storage, use 3. Green buildings 4. Conservation Fossil Fuel-based 11. Switch from Coal to Nat. Gas 12. C Capture & Storage (CCS) 13. H2 Fuel Cells 14. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS Renewables5. Wind 6. PV/Solar thermal 7. Geothermal 8. Biofuels 15. Nuclear fission No regrets Study needed

  6. OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods Poverty Conflict Exploration Extraction Transport crude Refining Transport refined Spills & Leaks MERCURY Benzene Air Pollution Petrochemicals Eutrophication NOxs Acid Rain Combustion Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs, spread of EIDs Melting Polar Ice Climate Change

  7. COAL LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS Silicosis Underground Injuries Mining Mortality Mountaintop Removal Deforestation Water contamination Combustion • NOxs & SOxs • O3 & Brown haze • Particulates HABs and Dead Zones • Mercury • CO and CO2

  8. BIOFUELS EIO-LCA H Energy In and Out E E Life Cycle Analysis Acetaldehyde O3 BIOFUELS SOLAR ENERGY GHGs NOxs CO2 E Fermentation Energy In Sugar Corn/stalks Switch grass Farm waste Grease Transport Ethanol E Combustion Fertilizers E E Energy Out Recycling Land/Soils/Food production

  9. Biofuels II • For a stabilization wedge: 1/6 cropland • Biodiesel: Monocultures, Indonesian/Malaysian forest fires • Water, fertilizers, pesticides (NAS) • Prices: Corn and wheat • Food and feed security Palm Oil Plantations

  10. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Humans Vegetation Limestone Fractures Acidification -As -Pb Microbial communities -IPCC Tech Summary 2005

  11. Health and “The Yellow Cake Road” • Mining • Milling Worker and • Transport Community exposures • Processing • Energy plants Ground H2O, heat waves, accidents • Temporary storage • Plutonium reprocessed and stored • Long-term storage unsolved • One ‘Yucca Mountain’ q5-10 years 10 faults within 20-mile radius of Yucca Mt. Solitario Canyon just west of planned site can produce an 6.5 magnitude earthquake. -AP 9/25/07 • Security Thefts and attacks $77 bn Bow Ridge Fault - USGS 5/21/07

  12. CE Green Buildings GC SF Estimated Savings Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billion Worker performance: $20 to $160 billion Total Energy Savings: $70 billion Studies 1996USD B. Fisk. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Schools with natural light 20% faster on math tests 26% faster on reading tests Stores with natural light: 40% more sales Hospitals with better lighting & ventilation: improved patient outcomes

  13. ‘Smart,’ ‘Self-Healing,’ Resilient, Robust Grid Geothermal Wind Regional Generation Critical loads Critical loads Co-Generation Renewables and Computerized technologies Central Generation Natural gas Distributed Generation Batteries Geothermal heat pumps A/C Co-Generation Solar thermal arrays and PV

  14. ENERGY SOURCES A Solar Grand Plan 69% grid by 2050 Zweibel et al. SciAm 1/08 “A Grand Wind Plan” 1.5 ml turbines 3 TW by 2020 L. Brown 2008 US DOE

  15. Healthy Cities Program CO2 dome O3

  16. Distributed Generation Distributed Development Water Purification Pumping Irrigation Desalinization Harmonizing Adaptation and Mitigation Schools Clinics Homes Computers Cooking

  17. “Low Hanging Fruit” McKinsey & Co. 2007

  18. Financial and Policy Instruments Aligning Rewards and Regulations Private sector Investments Insurance Ratings Public sector Incentives Infrastructure R&D Procurement practices “Carrots” Public Health TAXES, SUBSIDIES, FUNDS Security Economy INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK REGULATIONS EFFICIENCY STDS Climate Stability “Sticks” THE ENGINE OF GROWTH for the 21st CENTURY New Energy Plan Transport Utilities Buildings Corn Coal Nuclear Lobbies

  19. http://chge.med.harvard.edu http://www.climatechangefutures.org

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