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2012 Animal Outlook Chris Hurt hurtc @purdue.edu Purdue University August 19, 2011

2012 Animal Outlook Chris Hurt hurtc @purdue.edu Purdue University August 19, 2011. If your still standing. Congratulations. Grain and Feed . Two Big Demand Shocks.

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2012 Animal Outlook Chris Hurt hurtc @purdue.edu Purdue University August 19, 2011

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  1. 2012 Animal OutlookChris Hurt hurtc@purdue.eduPurdue University August 19, 2011 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  2. If your still standing Congratulations Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  3. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  4. Grain and Feed Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  5. Two Big Demand Shocks • Ethanol - From the 2005 crop, 7.8 million corn acres were needed to meet the ethanol needs (by-product adjusted). That climbed to23.7 million U.S. corn acres in 2010, an increase of 15.9 million acres. • U.S. soybean exports to China required the production from 8.3 million acres of the 2005 crop, but 22.8 million acres of the 2010 crop—an additional 14.5 million acres.

  6. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  7. Change in World Area of Major Crops 70% from New Land 30% from shifting

  8. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  9. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  10. Grain and Feed • Will Slow Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  11. 155 Million Bu. Per Year: 2011-14 Trend Yields 0 Million Bu. Per Year: 2015-2022 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  12. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  13. Livestock Industry Adjustments to Grain Shocks Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  14. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  15. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  16. Why is downsizing of the livestock sector not required today as it was in 2008?

  17. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  18. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  19. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  20. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  21. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  22. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  23. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  24. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  25. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  26. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  27. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  28. Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  29. Will High feed prices Persist?? Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  30. Agricultural policies for surplus vs. shortage? Surplus Shortage • Most of U.S. History • Reduce Supply • Set-asides • Soil Bank • CRP-Conservation • Increase Demand • Food Stamps • School Lunch • Export Enhancement • Ethanol mandate/tax credits • Limited History • Increase Supply • Release/reduce CRP • Flexible haying/grazing CRP • Research & education • Production incentives • Reduce Demand • Limit export incentives • No mandates or tax credits • Establish priorities Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  31. Questions? Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

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