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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS. Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth. Overview of Presentation. Introduction: HALO and GEMS GEMS Requirements Existing Models of Fire Emissions Available Fire Earth Observations Strategy Proposal Conclusions. HALO Overview.

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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS

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  1. HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth

  2. Overview of Presentation • Introduction: HALO and GEMS • GEMS Requirements • Existing Models of Fire Emissions • Available Fire Earth Observations • Strategy Proposal • Conclusions

  3. HALO Overview

  4. HALO – GMES Specific Support Action (SSA) • Harmonised coordination of Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone (1/2/2004 – 1/1/2007) • geoland (1/1/2004 - 1/2/2007) • Global and regional observatories & core services • MERSEA (1/4/2004 – 1/4/2008) • Global to coastal scale models, EO and in-situ data assimilation and modelling • GEMS (1/3/2005 - 1/3/2009) • Global greenhouse and reactive gases, global aerosol and regional air pollution, EO-data assimilation and modelling • HALO aims at formulating agreed recommendations to GAC and IPs • Scientific thematic analysis of links: • Direct product exchange • Unaccomplished data demands • Common data • Coordinated solutions to infra-structure in operational mode • Candidate solutions by Alcatel and Astrium

  5. HALO-Partners • GMES Integrated Projects • ECMWF (lead + GEMS + Meteorology ) • Infoterra (geoland) • IFREMER (MERSEA) • Industrial partners • Alcatel (Ocean – Atmosphere) • Astrium (Land – Atmosphere)

  6. Overall System: More Details Model NWP Assim. UK-metoffice NWP Retrieval OLF Data Mer TOPAZ FOAM MFS cator RT link CSP ONC GEMS Off -line NER m-f Cor CLS link SC CMS iolis OFM ECMWF Geoland GEMS Satellite Agencies In-situ MERSEA

  7. GEMS Overview

  8. GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data Coordinator A.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) Projects Leadership Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) Aerosol O.Boucher (UK) Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F) Validation H.Eskes (NL) Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF), GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

  9. Objectives of GEMS • Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009 • Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data • GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), • REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), • AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) • Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts • Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007 • Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2 and other trace constituents

  10. GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality reactive gases greenhouse gases Validation regional air quality aerosols

  11. Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site

  12. GEMS Requirements on Wildfires

  13. Fire Emissions … • … may dominate regional air quality in “severe air pollution” events • … may elevate background after long range transport (Stohl et al. 2001) • … significantly contributes to emission budgets of several gases (Kyoto, CLRTAP, …) • … may influence weather by heat production and absorbing smoke. • … provide essential a priori information for remote sensing • … are variable on all time scales from hours to decades near London-Luton, 2005-12-11 <news.bbc.co.uk> NOAA, 2005-12-11

  14. Interannual Variability

  15. Short-term Variability: CO, CO2 300 ppb CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e Guiana 10 km CO – CO2 (courtesy M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

  16. Short-term Variability: O3 300 ppb CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e Guiana 10 km CO – CO2 (Andreae et al. 2001)

  17. GEMS Required Fire Products • Products • amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases • location, time • injection height profile • Availability • global • near-real time and retrospectively • time resolution of several hours to one day

  18. Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements

  19. Existing Models of Fire Emission

  20. Existing Emission Models

  21. CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresSimulation using CATT-BRAMS (courtesy INPE/CPTEC, M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

  22. CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresSimulation using CATT-BRAMS Eulerian Transport Model1000 m --------------------- 11700 m (produced by INPE/CPTEC, courtesy of M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

  23. Some Conclusions on Existing Fire Emission Models • No global operational system exists. • (Some) severe events of pollution with aerosol and CO can be monitored and forecast with observations of fires only. • It is possible. • Fire EO input is essential. • High temporal frequency of fire observations is important.

  24. Available Observations

  25. Products from Fire EO land cover type leaf area index / NDVI combustion efficiency emission factor X available fuel load hot spots burn scars burnt area burnt mass emission X satellite observations burning area injection height profile fire temperature fire radiative power fire radiative energy fire products fire EO

  26. GLOBCARBON Global Burnt Area Estimate (courtesy of Olivier Arino)

  27. Some Conclusions on EO Fire Products • No current product satisfies all GEMS requirements. • Many existing products are inconsistent. (Boschetti et al. 2004) • very active area of research: Several new operational products are anticipated. • Burnt Area from MODIS (D. Roy) • Fire Radiative Power from SEVIRI (M. Wooster) • WF_ABBA from global GEO system (E. Prins) • … • Collaboration with geoland community is needed.

  28. Strategy Proposal

  29. GEMS Baseline Approach (AER) • GWEM for amount, MPI-MET [Hoelzemann et al. 2004] • BUOYANT for injection height, FMI [Nikmo et al. 1999]

  30. Proposed Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS Partial Funding No Funding

  31. Proposed Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) t fire climatology GEMS greenhouse gases greenhouse gas emissions land cover climatology Global Fire Assimilation System reactive gases reactive gas emissions satellite fire product satellite radiance aerosols aerosol emissions geoland, … land cover product regional air quality regional emissions fire product

  32. Proposed GFAS, cont. land cover type GFAS leaf area index / NDVI combustion efficiency emission factor X available fuel load hot spots burn scars burnt area burnt mass emission X satellite observations burning area injection height profile fire temperature fire radiative power fire radiative energy atmospheric concentration X GEMS fire EO

  33. Conclusions

  34. Conclusions • The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross-cutting issues in GEMS. • The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real time as well as with a time lag. • No suitable wildfire emission product is available. • Various fire EO products complement each other. • Several promising developments are visible. • We propose a phased development strategy for wildfire emission modelling for GEMS: Global Fire Assimilation System serving the GEMS subprojects, ultimately in near-real time. • (Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected.) • We need feedback from and collaboration with the fire EO and land monitoring communities. • We need additional funding.

  35. More Info • www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS • www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO • j.kaiser@ecmwf.int

  36. Fire Observation Types

  37. Diurnal Variability (Justice et al. 2002)

  38. Overall System Layout

  39. HALO-Objectives • “Optimising the efficiency of interaction the Atmosphere, Ocean and Land segments by formulating agreed recommendations to A - L - O IPs and GMES steering groups in areas of” • Scientific thematic analysis and coordination • Coordinated solutions to shared problems • Recommendations to the transition to operational status

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