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Availability of LFS employment data

This document discusses the availability of employment data from the EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS), including the concept of EU-LFS employment, data results, and availability. It also explores the monthly unemployment rate (MUR) and its data requirements, along with the situation at the national level.

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Availability of LFS employment data

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  1. Availability of LFS employment data Task Force Employment flash estimates – Item 6 28-29 March 2017 Frank Espelage EUROSTAT Unit F3 – Labour market and lifelong learning Frank.Espelage@ec.europa.eu

  2. Outline • The EU Labour Force Survey • EU-LFS employment: concept, results, data availability • The monthly unemployment rate (MUR) • MUR: data requirements, data used, quarterly data availability at t+30 • Situation at national level • Summary

  3. The EU Labour Force Survey • EU-LFS: largest European household sample survey • Providing quarterly and annual results on labour participation of people aged 15 and over, as well as on persons outside the labour force • Residents in private households (1-year criterion)

  4. The EU Labour Force Survey • Participating countries: EU28, IS, NO, CH, MK, TR • Each quarter around 1.8 million respondents • Statistical information for some 100 variables (demographic background, labour market participation incl. hours worked, education...) -> Important source of information about situation and trends on the labour market:EU 2020 headline indicators, MUR, MIP, etc.

  5. EU-LFS employment: concept Following ILO guidelines: • Employment covers persons aged 15 years and over, living in private households, • who during the reference week performed work, even for just one hour, for pay, profit or family gain, • orwere not at work but had a job or business from which they were temporarily absent, for example because of illness, holidays, industrial dispute or education and training

  6. EU-LFS employment: concept Standard age group: 15 years and over, but several exceptions: • 16 and over in Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom, • 15-74 years in Estonia, Latvia, Hungary, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark, and • 16-74 years in Iceland

  7. EU-LFS employment: concept The LFS (national) employment concept differs from national accounts domestic employment: • Partial limit on age • No collective households • No coverage of non-resident population • No conscripts in military or community service

  8. EU-LFS employment: results Employment measurement possible in terms of: • Number of persons or jobs • Full-time equivalents • Hours worked LFS estimates normally use • Number of persons or • Rates (built on estimates for the number of persons)

  9. EU-LFS employment: results LFS results • Detailed quarterly and yearly LFS results not adjusted/corrected for breaks in series • LFS main indicators: employment unadjusted and seasonally adjusted (by Eurostat) • Levels and rates • By sex, age group, educational attainment level • Part-time employment, temporary employment

  10. EU-LFS employment: data availability Transmission deadline for quarterly data: 12 weeks after reference quarter (not calendar quarter) Some countries are much faster: • t+30: Spain • t+45: Portugal • Close to t+45 most of the time: DK, AT, UK… Future IESS regulation: from 12 via 10 to 8 weeks…

  11. EU-LFS employment: data availability • Dissemination of validated country data: weekly • EU/EA aggregates: • as soon as all relevant country data exists • Normally 1-2 weeks after transmission deadline (~ t+90)

  12. What else?

  13. The monthly unemployment rate (MUR) • Largely based on EU-LFS • Principal European Economic Indicator • Estimates for EU, EA and individual countries • Levels and rates; unadjusted and seasonally adjusted • Gentlemen's agreement; no legal basis (yet) • Combined exercise Member States and Eurostat • Publication at around t+30 -> Unemployment rate requires employment figure

  14. MUR: data requirements • Monthly employment/unemployment levels, by sex, for age groups 15-24 and 25-74 • Two general approaches: • Direct transmission by countries or • Eurostat production based on available quarterly LFS data plus monthly registered unemployment (including disaggregation / forecasting / seasonal adjustment) • MUR results are benchmarked against quarterly LFS results (once available…)

  15. MUR: data used for EU28 14 countries provide directly LFS-based estimates: • Monthly estimates at t+30: Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Romania, Finland, Sweden • Monthly estimates at t+90: Greece • 3-month moving averages at t+30: Denmark, Portugal • 3-month moving averages at t+60: Estonia, Hungary • 3-month moving averages at t+90: United Kingdom (3MMA estimates are assigned to the middle month)

  16. MUR: data used for EU28 For 14 countries, estimates are based on a combination of existing quarterly LFS data and registered unemployment: • Eurostat production: Belgium, Bulgaria, Spain, France, Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia • National production: Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia

  17. MUR: quarterly data availability at t+30 For a given quarter, final data or estimates covering the whole quarter are available at Eurostatat t+30 for: • Final quarterly LFS data: Spain • Monthly estimates at t+30: Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Romania, Finland, Sweden • 3-month moving averages at t+30: Denmark, Portugal • 3-month moving averages at t+60: Estonia, Hungary (3MMA estimates are assigned to the middle month)

  18. MUR: quarterly data availability at t+30 • In total: data for up to 13 countries… • …of which most still require calibration to final quarterly LFS results

  19. Situation at national level Availability/possibility of (final or flash) quarterly LFS employment estimates (total or 15-74): Rough assessment based on country answers; countries in brackets: no answer (date of national press releases; monthly unemployment situation indicates earlier availability at least for SE and RO)

  20. Summary • Final quarterly LFS data availability at t+30 extremely limited • Several countries send monthly or 3MMA estimates covering the whole quarter in time for t+30 • In cases where Eurostat produces monthly estimates based on existing quarterly LFS data plus monthly registered unemployment, forecasting quarterly employment directly from previous GDP data might be better • At national level the situation is partly more advanced already

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