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Welcome! May 16, 2011. Agenda. General Update Investment Competition How to pitch a stock Stock Pitch. Officer Transition. Officers announced next week Investment comp. prizes next week. Investment Competition Update. http://simulator.investopedia.com/Ranking /.
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Welcome! May 16, 2011
Agenda General Update Investment Competition How to pitch a stock Stock Pitch
Officer Transition Officers announced next week Investment comp. prizes next week
Investment Competition Update http://simulator.investopedia.com/Ranking/
What is the objective of pitching a stock? Opportunity to show your knowledge and passion for the markets
How evaluated? Content – 30% Presentation – 30 % Q and A – 40 %
What you must keep in mind? Earnings X Multiple = Price Stock
What you must keep in mind Great company with a cheap valuation First two bullet points convey how “great” company is Last convey how cheap the valuation is
Tell them what you want to tell them • Purpose • Framework of what to say • Build expectation • Example • Buy recommend on Avid Technology (AVID), target price of $47.00, which is a 29% upside from yesterday’s close. My recommendation is based on 3 reasons: (a) strong growth from new products (b) opportunity for margin expansion from changes in sales mix and (c) attractive valuation
Brief intro of firm • Purpose • Helps place judge mentally with your stock • Ex. • Avid Technology develops, market, sells & supports a wide range of software and hardware for digital media production, management and distribution. For example, one would use avid software to superimpose 2 photos. Avid had last fiscal revenue of 775 million, market cap 1.8 billion, 3 month avg. vol. 650 thousand, and 12 month P/E of 15.6x
Explain Bullet Point - 1 • Purpose • Provide evidence on how revenue would grow • Example • AVID will continue to post strong revenue growth drive by • Broadcasters’ conversion from tape to digital • Move to HD format. • Only 500-600 of the top 2,500 broadcasters have transitioned from tape-based solutions • 3 billion market opportunity. • 80% of Avid’s 60,000 video customers are yet to upgrade to HD capabilities • Average price of $35,000 for a HD system • $1.7 billion in potential sales.
Explain Bullet Point - 2 • Purpose • Provide evidence on how margin could improve • Example • Current operating margin at 4.7% • Sales mix 50/50 between software/hardware • Increasing software in mix for last 2 years • Can increase to as high as 70% • Increase margin to 10% • Software margins better than hardware
Explain Bullet Point - 3 • Purpose • Explain why the stock is undervalued • Example • Company missed expectations by a penny and stock went down 25% • Overreaction • Historical P/E of 23.5x • Peer group P/E of 20x • 20x 2007 EPS of $2.34 = stock price of $47.00
Tell Them What You Told Them • Purpose • Reiterate your investment thesis • Provide a catalyst • Example • Strong revenue growth prospects from tape -> digital • Opportunity for margin expansion -> sales mix • Compelling valuationfor gain of 29% • Launch of new product DigitalPro next month will be catalyst
Anticipate Questions Most questions will be based on what is actually said Some questions will be based on what you deliberately did not say
Bullet Point – 1 - Questions How much time did it take for 500 broadcasters to transition from tape-based solutions? What would make those 80% HD customers to upgrade How did you determine the $35,000 price?
Other Questions What are some risk factors? What is the downside if those risks happen? Why did the stock move way it did? What is the street missing?
NEOP Neoprobe
Stock Pitch • Buy recommend on Neoprobe • Target price of $6.50, 35% upside • Recommendation based on 3 reasons: • Presentation of Phase III Lymphoseek Data • NDA submission 3Q 2011 • Attractive valuation
Who are they? • Based out of Dublin, Ohio • Market leader in gamma detection devices (generating revenue) • On its way to be a leader in Oncology
Explain Bullet Point - 1 http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=47513888 The results from NEO3-09 are important not only in that they demonstrate that Lymphoseek is safe and well-tolerated but in many ways that it is a clinically superior lymphatic mapping agent to vital blue dye
Thanks! • What are your questions?