Dynamic Disaster Simulation

1. Dynamic Disaster Simulation Ken Sochats Director, Center for National Preparedness Director, Visual Information Systems Center Director, GIS and Visual Analytics, University Center for Social and Urban Research University of Pittsburgh

5. Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation System (D4S2) • Provide a circumstance-independent laboratory for testing how the type and scale of the event, situational variables and command decisions affect responders’ efficiency and effectiveness in dealing with complex and evolving disasters.

6. D4S2 Team • Department of Industrial Engineering • Bidanda Bopaya • Larry Shuman • Shane Wu • Glenn Wang • School of Medicine • Carey Balaban • Center for National Preparedness • Visual Information Systems Center • Matt Kelley • Bob Regan • Ken Sochats • University of Pittsburgh

7. D4S2 • All Hazards • All Location • Multi-Event • Collateral/Consequential Effects

8. Response Issues • Pre-ICS (Crisis Phase) • Command/Control/Communications • Multi-jurisdictions/Escalation • Training/Exercises • Interoperability

9. D4S2 Components • GIS - ArcGIS 9.2, ESRI • Simulation – Arena 10, Rockwell Automation • Decision Model – Microsoft Visual Basic (.Net), SQL Server • Control Structure –, Microsoft Visual Basic (.Net)

10. D4S2 Architecture

11. D4S2 Incident Model • Event is a Function of: • Location Attributes • Environmental Attributes • Event Type • Time • Actions • Reactions

12. D4S2 Process (Non-Linear) • Define Event • Type (CBRNE) 15 DHS • Site • Scope • Geographic • Temporal

13. D4S2 Process • Extract GeoDatabase Information • Victims • Sites • Assets • Response Assets

14. D4S2 Process • Simulate Event • Response • Fire, Police, EMS, HAZMAT, etc. • Victims • Reaction • Casualty Classes • Deterioration • Event Progression • Environment • Air Plumes and Water Flow

15. D4S2 Process • Model Decision Making • Strategies • Evacuation • Quarantine • Shelter in Place • Dispatch • Assets • Timing • Reserves

16. GIS Components • Geographic • Roads, Waterways • Topography • Asset • Fire, Police, EMS, HAZMAT • Public & Private • Environmental • Weather • Hydrology

17. Development Case • Pittsburgh • Topography • Hydrology • Infrastructure • Bridges • Tunnels

18. Pittsburgh

19. GIS Model

20. GIS Model Zoom

21. Simulation Model

22. D4S2 Decision Modeling • Rule Based • Rules Derived • Standards • Best Practices • Policy • Procedures • Plans • SMEs (EMT, Police, Fire, HAZMAT, Mil., etc.) • Inference • Inductive • Deductive

23. D4S2 Decision Model Architecture

24. Decision Rules • Rule Format • <Condition1><Condition2>…:<Consequence1><Consequence2>… {Actor}{Probability}{RuleSet}{Warrant}{Risk}{ID} • Examples • <IncidentType “Chemical Spill”>: <Dispatch Fire><Dispatch HazMat> <Dispatch Police><AreaStrategy Evacuate>…{Actor Commander}{P 1.00}{RuleSet EOC} {Warrant NIMS(1.25)}{Risk 1.3 7.4}{27} • <EventType ?> : <Establish Command Post> {Actor Incident Commander}{P 1.00}{RuleSet Pittsburgh Emergency Plan}{ Warrant NFPA 1561 5.1.3}{Risk 4.6}{1}

30. Progress/Issues/Conclusions • Validation • Integrated GIS • Interaction • Best Fit Tasking • Information Completeness • Model Sophistication • Testbed • Johnstown