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DSL or Fiber? You Decide... The Choice is Yours

DSL or Fiber? You Decide... The Choice is Yours. Defining Our Goal. Look at the network investment for the next 10 years Assess service needs and competition and what type of network is needed Balance capital costs to build with OAM costs to operate the network

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DSL or Fiber? You Decide... The Choice is Yours

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  1. DSL or Fiber?You Decide...The Choice is Yours

  2. Defining Our Goal • Look at the network investment for the next 10 years • Assess service needs and competition and what type of network is needed • Balance capital costs to build with OAM costs to operate the network • Understand a migration strategy versus an evolution strategy • Making the ultimate investment: • Today? • Defer with interim solutions? • Re-architect the network?

  3. Competitive Shifts: Service and Retention 1999 2009 POTS Voice POTS Voice IOC DSL HSIA IOC DSL HSIA IPTV Cable TV Cellular Voice Text Cable TV Cellular Voice Cable HSIA Cable HSIA Internet Voice

  4. POTS is under attack • Subscribers who drop home phone service no longer available for DSL service sales • Widespread availability of cellular and affordability causes consumers to consider paying for only one service • Residential POTS has declined nearly 25% the past 2 years • Competition is for bundled services • The ‘old days’ when customers used one network and service provider for TV service and another for voice is gone • Consumer have choices for all their services • IP convergence re-shaping consumer view of voice as a service

  5. Declining Returns on Investment: Copper Time • POTS • HSIA • IPTV • Retention • Features • New Services ARPU 2009 ROI Dollars Per Line • Rehab • Repair • Labor • Truck roll • Loop power • Management • Equipment OAM Costs

  6. Multi-Play as the driver for Residential Broadband • Carrier service revenue sources: • Voice (TDM and/or VoIP) • Video ( digital IPTV/RFTV) • 2-3 broadcast streams • 1-3 HDTV • DVR (single and whole home) • VOD • Consumes 15 – 30 Mbps. • HSIA • Best efforts (1 – 10 Mbps) • Tiered / SLA (3 – 10 Mbps) • Increased upstream • Home security • IP security camera (1.5 – 3 Mbps)

  7. Services Drive Bandwidth Ever Higher MPEG2 MPEG4 MPEG4 2015 - 2025 1995 - 2005 2005 - 2015 3 TV streams Standard Definition Best efforts HSIA 1 mbps upstream VoD 3 TV streams 1 HDTV Better efforts HSIA 1 mbps upstream DVR stream VoD 3 TV streams 3 HDTV 10 Mbps. HSIA 2 mbps upstream multi-DVR streams VoD Games/applications 15/1 Mbps 23/1 Mbps 35/5 Mbps

  8. ADSL2+ ADSL2+ / G.Bond VDSL2 VDSL2 Bond/ 5 Band Active Ethernet point-to-point GPON: 1:32 and 1:64 splits Max. 25 Mbps. Max. 40 Mbps. Max. 50 Mbps Max. 100 Mbps * Max. 100 Mbps 1 GE Max. 2.5 Gbps x number splits Our Technology ‘Candidates” Technology Downstream Bandwidth

  9. Characteristics of DSL Technologies • Bandwidth determined by copper loop length between CPE and point it is launched • Bandwidth affected by gauge of copper • Approx. -10% decrease incurred with higher gauge • Bandwidth decrease as more pairs added in binder group • Affect of Far-End Cross Talk (FEXT) • Other impacts with T-1 in binder group • Age and condition of copper affect performance • Dry Vs. Wet pairs • Cross connects/splices • Bridge Taps • Noise/interference can be a problem with DSL technologies • Spectral interference • Frequency interference • With DSL diplexed onto a POTS line, POTS service remains in place • Line powering over the copper pairs can be used

  10. Engineering DSL Loops For DSL • Must Consider the poorest performance in rate to engineer reach for electronics location • When copper gauges are mixed • When 10% or more of loops have noise or interference reducing performance • Alternative is to replace the bad loops to have consistent rate & reach • Rehab may be costly • Age of plant a direct factor • Protection is a must • Lightening • ADSL2+ or VDSL2 bonding is a partial cure for bad plant – more suited to gain greater bandwidth for service

  11. Performance Characteristics of ADSL2+ • 24 gauge AWG with 6dB noise injected on line Triple Play Distance range

  12. G.Bond Rate & Reach Improvement Triple Play Distance range • Increases maximum downstream to 35 mbps. Vs. 25 Mbps. For non-bonded ADSL2+ on same 24 gauge AWG with 6db noise injected • Extends reach from approx. 8K/ft. to 10.5 K/ft. for Triple Play delivery (15 Mbps.)

  13. ADSL2+ Line Rate, 6 dB ADSL2+ Rate Vs. Reach Margin, 0 SFEXT ADSL2+ Line Rate, 8 dB 30 Margin, 0 SFEXT 25 ADSL2+ Line Rate, 8 dB Margin, 23 SFEXT 20 15 ADSL2+ Ethernet Rate (Mbps) Throughput, 8 dB Margin, 10 23 SFEXT 5 0 2 Kft 3 Kft 5 Kft 7 Kft 8 Kft 1 Kft 4 Kft 6 Kft 9 Kft 11 Kft 12 Kft 10 Kft 24 AWG Loop Length Affects of FEXT in Binder Group: ADSL2+ Triple Play Distance range

  14. VDSL2 Triple Play Distance range • VDSL chips support • ADSL2+ fallback • Could use in ADSL2+ • mode when loops • exceed VDSL2 limits 625 1250 1875 2500 3125 3750 4375 Feet/Loop Length

  15. ADSL2+ Economics By Market Type • Study performed in England • Can use same ratios for U.S. $ • Source: Light Reading

  16. OAM and Copper • Increasing number of trouble reports as copper ages • More truck rolls to repair and maintain • More work to rehab copper for DSL • Bridge taps • Cross connects • Grounding • Even drop replacement

  17. DSL Loop Electronics • ROW and pad • Local Power • Loop electronics • Batteries & maintenance • Cabinet cost • On-going service at cabinet • Objections by residents and cities to have cabinets in the neighborhood

  18. Fiber to the Premises

  19. Fiber to the Premises Technologies

  20. Characteristic of FTTx Technologies • Rate and Reach not a factor • Fiber is not subject to environmental deterioration like copper • Main concern is cuts • Fiber media is bandwidth ubiquitous • Can expand as optical technology evolves • Fiber eliminates the “upstream/downstream” dilemma of copper • Active Ethernet (point to point) dedicates 100% of bandwidth to the subscriber • GPON uses splits to share large bandwidth among a population of subscribers on a first-come, first-have basis • Today, fiber technologies are Ethernet based: • Does not support traditional POTS • Line powering CPE not possible over fiber

  21. Relative Deployment Cost By Area

  22. FTTH Deployment Methods

  23. Loop Requirements for Fiber • Splitter pedestal for PON • No power • No active components • Small footprint • Fiber patch cabinet with Active Ethernet • Moderate footprint • Minimal power • Splitters in CO used to eliminate splitter pedestal

  24. Home Connectivity with Fiber • Fiber termination and home network electronics • Installed outside of home • Integrated management to home network • Modular installation and functional additions • Locally powered • Delivers voice, HSIA, video throughout home

  25. Planning & Engineering Fiber DSL • Engineering to rate and reach for DSL • ROW and power design and engineering • Cabinet design and engineering • SAI cross connect engineering • Loop qualification • Route planning • Fiber cable construction • Splitter or distribution point planning

  26. DSL or Fiber Assessment • Is ADSL2+ enough to provide competitive services and protect the subscriber base? • Will VDSL2 in FTTcurb cabinets eventually be needed for bandwidth driven services? • Where must DSL electronics be located in the loop network to effectively deliver service needs? • How often must the DSL and/or electronics be upgraded or replaced, even moved, to keep pace with service needs? • Is the current DSL strategy an interim one to use copper as fiber is extended deeper into the loop? • Is it a ‘stop-gap’ until fiber is brought all the way to the premise?

  27. Fiber Migration in the Loop • FTTN • ADSL2 + • FTTC • VDSL2+ • FTTB • PON • Active E • 1 GE • VDSL2 • FTTH • PON • Active E

  28. Copper Plant Viability Assessment • How old is the copper plant and how much is required to enable it for DSL? • What is the year-to-year trend in OAM costs and labor for the copper plant? • What is the trend in ARPU for copper-based services in the subscriber base? • Does the current plant allow offering competitive services today?

  29. FTTP Assessment • Is fiber already being extended deeper into the loop today? • What parts of the serving areas are most readily deployable with fiber to the premise? • What are the OpEx savings using fiber over the next 10 years? • What are the projected services and ARPU the next 10 years using fiber? • Are there recurring capital costs today to upgrade, replace or relocate DSL loop electronics to keep pace with bandwidth demand?

  30. The Short History of DSL ASAM 7300 deploy NGDLC replace ASAM 7300 replace AFC replace BLC deploy BLC replace IP DSLAM deploy MSAN deploy MSAN upgrade IP DSLAM upgrade 1998 2002/3 2006 2007 2008 • ADSL From CO • Limited coverage • DS3 or OC3 DSLAM • ADSL in RT cabinet • ADSL2+ introduction • OC12/48 BLC/DSLAM • ADSL2+ in cabinet • 1 G IP DSLAM/MSAN • VDSL2 in cabinet • 1 G & 10G DSLAM • VDSL2 • ADSL2+ G.Bond

  31. Conclusion • It is more an issue of the copper plant than it is DSL as a technology • The laws of physics are not easily overcome by technology • DSL may be only a ‘fast response’ to competition, not the long term solution • Services are rapidly outpacing the capacity the legacy network can support • The entire definition of service provider has changed • Fiber is for the next 100 years

  32. Thank You!

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