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The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to T he Energy Foundation Beijing

The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to T he Energy Foundation Beijing OCTOBER 30, 2013 Dennis Frenchman Leventhal Professor of Urban Design and Planning Christopher Zegras Associate Professor of Transportation Planning. 2012-2013 PROJECT TEAM.

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The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to T he Energy Foundation Beijing

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  1. The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to The Energy Foundation Beijing OCTOBER 30, 2013 Dennis Frenchman Leventhal Professor of Urban Design and Planning Christopher ZegrasAssociate Professor of Transportation Planning

  2. 2012-2013 PROJECT TEAM Principal Investigators Supported by EF, LCEUA & MIT: Supported by EF and MIT: Supported by MIT:

  3. 2012-2013 PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS • MODELING &SIMULATION FOR IN-HOME & TRANSPORT ENERGY ENERGY PROFORMA POLICY PROPOSALS & CHALLENGES IN PRACTICE PAPERS: Simulation of Household In-home and Transport Energy Use: An integrated behavioral model for estimating energy consumption at the neighborhood scale The Energy Proforma: Measuring neighborhood energy performance for design, development, and urban policy Neighborhood Energy Performance Policy for China Implementing Energy-Efficient Neighborhood Form in China

  4. INCORPORATING FEEDBACK FROM ACADEMICS & STAKEHOLDERS • MIT-Tsinghua Joint Studio surveys & interviews • Interviews with 20 urban planning professionals in Shenzhen and Jinan • Kunming Chenggong planning delegation & EF symposium at MIT • Lincoln Land Institute – Peking University RUSE conference • Mayoral training program by American Planning Association, held at MIT June 2012 Jan-Dec 2012 January 2013 June 2013 July-Sept 2013

  5. CHINA IN 2030: 300 MILLION NEW URBAN RESIDENTS 30,000 NEW SUPERBLOCK DEVELOPMENTS TOWER SPRAWL: IS IT SUSTAINABLE? McKinsey Global Institute Preparing for China’s Urban Billion March 2009

  6. ENERGY PERFORMANCE @ THE NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE • Neighborhood = fundamental unit of urban development • Evidence of measurable relationships between energy use and urban form • Measurable & manageable energy performance (using Energy Proforma) • Opportunity for improving energy efficiency through • Urban development regulation and land policies • Real estate market transformation strategies

  7. OBJECTIVES 目标 调查规模 Scales of Investigation Metro scale 1:20,000 • 探索邻里尺度的能源 消耗和城市形态之关系 Explore relationships between energy and urban form at the neighborhood scale 2.开发新的用于分析、 设计以及能源使用相关 政策的工具 Develop new toolsfor analysis, design,and policy related to energy use in neighborhoods 城市尺度 Urban development scale 1:1000 社区开发尺度 Building scale 1:50 建筑尺度

  8. INTEGRATED APPROACH 综合的路径

  9. ENERGY PROFORMA CONCEPT

  10. JINAN: DEMONSTRATION CITY 济南:案例城市

  11. URBAN FORM IN JINAN AND CHINA 济南及中国的城市形态 Traditional Fabric Urban Grid Low-rise Slab/Enclave High-rise Superblock 传统结构 城市网格 低层排楼/聚集区 高层超大街区

  12. 城中村(张家村) 传统结构 (芙蓉) 聚集区 (佛山院) 城市网格 (旧CBD) 超大街区 (阳光100)

  13. TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY USEOF NEIGHBORHOODS 邻里的年度总能耗

  14. INTEGRATED IN-HOME/TRANSPORT MODEL FRAMEWORK

  15. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND EQUIPMENT OWNERSHIP INDICATORS 家庭社会经济属性 及电器/机动车拥有情况

  16. ATTITUDES INDICATORS 住户态度指标

  17. NEIGHBORHOOD FORM VARIABLES 城市形态的变量

  18. NEIGHBORHOOD FORM VARIABLES 城市形态的变量 Wind Porosity 多孔性 Solar Exposure 朝南指数 Surface-to-Volume 表面体积比 Site Coverage 建筑覆盖率

  19. RELATIONSHIPS IN MODELS

  20. SIMULATION: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 9.5% 2% 10.7% 1.9% 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 7.2% 2.0% 8.1% % energy savings in year 1 % energy savings in year 10 0.6% 3.3% 11.4% 12.4% Continuity of street façade: 10%X Continuity of street façade: 80%

  21. SIMULATION: PREDICTION IN 20 YEARS

  22. ENERGY PROFORMA 2.4: USED IN BEIJING STUDIO 2012 2 1 Real-time adjustments of neighborhood form measures Visual feedback on overall energy use 3 Detailed text output

  23. MIT-TSINGHUA 2012 JOINT STUDIO ASSESSMENT: • Feedback from students and collaborators in Beijing How strong is the relationship between energy use and neighborhood form? (Before studio -> After) Assessment of Proforma’s impact on studio learning objectives (Before studio -> After) Understanding of overall energy use in neighborhood: Improvement in almost all students Understanding of impacts of specific design choices: some students improved 1 2 3

  24. ENERGY PROFORMA 3.0: DEVELOPMENT IN 2012-2013 ENERGYPROFORMA.mit.edu

  25. DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED PLATFORM FOR URBAN STAKEHOLDERS

  26. ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DESIGNERS: RAPID PROTOTYPING OF CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOODS

  27. DETAILED ANALYSIS OUTPUT PER ENERGY DIMENSION

  28. ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DESIGNERS: PERFORMANCE COMPARISON ACROSS DESIGN OPTIONS

  29. ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DEVELOPERS: LIFECYCLE COST INCLUDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION

  30. ENERGY PROFORMA FOR PLANNING BUREAU: REGULATORY PLAN ENERGYPERFORMANCE ANALYSIS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM KUNMING/EF DELEGATION (JANUARY 2013)

  31. DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED PLATFORM FOR URBAN STAKEHOLDERS: SUMMARY • CURRENT FEATURES: • Open access (anyone can try it) • Rapid analysis of neighborhood development and regulatory plans • Information and design model repository for low carbon urban design • Detailed feedback on neighborhood form measures (decision support for designers) • COMING SOON: • Transparent back-end engine (with integrated documentation) • Extensible back-end models and/or data via API • Simulation with population generation and changes in neighborhood form • Detailed analysis of energy/fuel sources • Improved usability (better geometry input) • Financial analysis (lifecycle cost)

  32. USING THE PROFORMA TO EVALUATE POLICY PROPOSALS ACROSS 3 DOMAINS:

  33. BASIS IN CHINA CITY PILOT PROGRAMS

  34. INDICATORS/CRITERIA IN CURRENT CODES (from December)

  35. ENERGY-BASED GUIDELINES

  36. ENERGY-BASED GUIDELINES: ACCESSIBILITY LOW-CARBON CONVENTIONAL

  37. NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARD

  38. NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARD

  39. MUNICIPAL FINANCE REFORMS: • LAND LEASE MODIFICATIONS AND PROPERTY TAXES • TO SUPPORT CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOOD DEVELOPMENT @ 1% of market value per annum on new residential

  40. NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY LABELING AND DISCLOSURE HIGH ENERGY USE AVERAGE LOW

  41. NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY LABELING AND DISCLOSURE Adapted from Nadkarni, Nikhil, and Harvey Michaels. 2012. “A New Model for Disclosing the Energy Performance of Residential Buildings.”

  42. CARBON TRADING FOR NEIGHBORHOODS Chen Demin, Tan Zhixion - 2012 – “Establishment of Regional Carbon Trading Market: A Case Study of Chongqing”, 重庆市碳交易市场构建研究

  43. NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY EFFICIENCY CERTIFICATES FOR EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES

  44. INTEGRATED POLICY SUPPORT FOR CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOOD DEVELOPMENT

  45. PRESENTATION SUMMARY • MODELING&SIMULATION • Integrated behavioral modeling of in-home & transport energy use • Microsimulation framework for future transport use and energy consumption • ENERGY PROFORMA • Rapid neighborhood energy assessment can be part of workflow for: • Designers • Developers • Planning bureau • Policymakers • POLICY PROPOSALS • Prescriptive codes • Neighborhood Energy Performance Standard (NEPS) • Municipal finance reforms (land lease & property taxes) • Marketstrategies (energy labeling & carbon trading)

  46. ENERGYPROFORMA.MIT.EDU Making the Clean Energy City in China

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