Major factors influencing food security in Southern Africa GOSA 2011

1. Major factors influencing food security in Southern Africa GOSA 2011 Presented by Pieter Esterhuysen 09/03/11

2. ????? Food security Malnutrition Food safety Underweight Food hygiene Hunger

3. 1 billion people do not have enough to eat = › populations of USA/EU/Canada Malnutrition is the worlds largest risk to health - greater than the combined risk of Aids/Malaria/Tuberculoses 98 percent of the world's hungry live in developing countries Women = 50% world's population, but 60 % hungry 10.9 million children under five die in developing countries each year 1 out of 4 children - roughly 146 million - in developing countries are underweight Lack of Vitamin A kills a million infants a year

10. The concept of Food Security Food security exists when all people, at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient , safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO)

11. International Food Security

12. World maize production and consumption

14. Food security in Southern Africa • SSA has a serious food security problem • Up to 90 of food production is rain fed • 35% of GDP • 40% of exports • 70% of employment • 80% of staple needs • Up to 50% below poverty line • Pop. growth = +-2% › production growth • Thus – food gap is growing

15. Determinants of Food Security Accessibility Availability Food Security Adequacy Acceptability

16. Food security in Southern Africa Affordability = Can I get it when I need it? Availability = Is there enough?

17. Affordability • 50% of our continents population earn $1 and less per day • Individuals are poor in our continent • Food security is in the first place a socio-economic issue • More food is not = to less hunger/ more food security • Country (GDP/capita) vs. individual disposable income • (Botswana = US$8 000 pa) • Economic growth (sluggish but picking up) • Unemployment rate (10% tot 60% ??) • Distribution of income and wealth • NGO and GO programmes

18. Affordability • Action • NGO and GO programmes (food supply and supply driven) • Programmes to stimulate small scale production (360%) • Stimulate economic growth (poor people to share) • Land ownership issues and other policy issues • All other issues hampering development of the ag sector

19. Availability Availability ≠ local production Availability ≠ surplus in a country/region Availability of staple = sophisticated effective integration of the food value chain

20. Availability • 1. Infrastructure • Food Security demands safe storage • Storage (distribution/local crop – 20%) • Support SGR • Bag focus • Lack of critical mass • Location and management • No specialised profit motive • Good growth (NGO and GO) Zam 2 mil Zim 3.5 mil Mal 0.7 mil Moz 0.045 mil Tan 0.25 mil

21. Availability • 1. Infrastructure • Food Security demands a free flow of grains • Road, rail and port • Major problem • East London/Durban/Maputo/Beira/Nacala/Mombasa • Road and rail in the RSA ???? • East West and North South corridors (SADC – China?)

22. Availability • 2. Markets (Price discovery) • Natural Food security demands transparent prices and base recognition • SAFEX • ZamACE • ACE (Malawi) • ZIMACE • (liquidity/cash/trust/storage solution/Price?)

23. Availability • 3. Status of trading community • Food security demands solutions for time, • location, access problems • Hated species • Solve the time problem • Solve the location problem • Solve the standardisation problem • Provide market access • Needs resources and risk • Enemy = gov. intervention/currency

24. Availability • 4. Financing options • Food security demands a well functioning • commodity value chain (carry finance) • HIGH LOW SPREAD (FINANCING??) • Africa trade cash! • Lack of acceptable storage • Lack of liquidity • Lack of transparent prices • Lack of hedging options • Ownership arrangements - security

25. Availability • 5. Government involvement • Food Security ‘demands’ what? The market solved the RSA problem (transparent/stable playing field) • Intervention in prices • Intervention in trading options • Administration/policies (borders) • SGR (procurement and liquidation) • Based on trust problem • (inward logistics/political sensitivity- • Malawi elections – fertiliser, Zimbabwe • aid distribution) Zim = 0.5 mil mt Zam = 0.2 mil mt Mal = 0.2 mil mt Tan = 0.1 mil mt Moz = 0.06 mil mt

26. Availability • 6. Small scale vs. Commercial production • Food security demands availability and • affordability • Policies/investment focused commercial production • Formal inputs = import parity priced • Cannot compete in local markets • Provide tradable commodity – not affordable food • Increase small scale production???

27. Maize production in Southern Africa Food Aid = 700 000 mt to 1.5 million mt

28. Maize production increase Double hectares = +16 mil mt Double yields = +16 mil mt Halve post harvest losses = + 800 000 mt Total availability = 62.7 mil mt Previous available = 14.4 mil mt

29. Economic effect • Effect on region • +- US$ 8 billion (+-R56 000 000 000) • Effect on a household • Old income = $80 • New income = $360 • Income increase = 350%

30. FOOD SECURITY FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ANALYSED FOOD SECURITY CAN BE THE TOPIC TO PHILOSIFYING FOOD SECURITY CAN BE A POLITICAL INSTRUMENT FOOD SECURITY CAN BE TRADED FOOD SECURITY CAN PROVIDE PROFITS FOOD SECURITY COULD JUSTIFY THE EXISTANCE OF NGO’S ? FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ALL THESE THINGS BUT IN ESSENCE, FOOD SECURITY DISCRIBES THE BASIC STATE OF HUMAN KIND I CARE ABOUT THAT