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Working Group 4

Working Group 4. “We predict Success”. Biggest Issues. Forecasts “R” Us - what needs to be forecasted? Probabalistic forecasts - Can we give the forecasters an edge?. Some questions.

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Working Group 4

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  1. Working Group 4 “We predict Success”

  2. Biggest Issues • Forecasts “R” Us - what needs to be forecasted? • Probabalistic forecasts - Can we give the forecasters an edge?

  3. Some questions • MHD codes have large potential difference between hemispheres during solstices. How does real magnetosphere deal with this? Any evidence to support the existance of such a potential difference? • Polar cap saturation vs. no saturation in the ring current • Ring current dependence of saturation - does big ring current change saturation potential • Better understanding of equinoctal effects in coupling VBz to magnetosphere - geometric or energy transfer • Can we distinguish between large transfer constant (a) and small a events ? • Does energetic particle flux depend on a or on other factors? • Role of upstream Mach number

  4. Some projects • Look at AIME runs for summer and winter. Invesitgate ideas for equalizing potential (differential conductivity modification, shunting of current from dark to lit hemisphere) • Ring current dependence of saturation - look at DMSP flights during isolated storms and series of storms • Studies of a - integrate VBz and RC injection for each storm, get geoeffectiveness, look at influence of various properties, storm history, behavior of energetic electrons • Role of upstream Mach number in magnetosheath field seen by GOES/AMPTE CCE during magnetosheath crossings

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