Scotland’s Changing Hydro Resource – 2008 to 2012 and Beyond

1. Scotland’s Changing Hydro Resource – 2008 to 2012 and Beyond Nick Forrest

2. Topics • Recent history of hydro • National resource – what is it now? • What the sites look like • How fast will hydro grow? • What are the critical factors?

3. Cumulative Installed Hydro

4. Developers • Uncertain markets • Money looking for investments • Many new developers • Land grab • How much is left?

5. SNH and SEPA • Increasing number of applicants • Cumulative effects

6. Scottish Government • Pollution & climate change • Energy security • Rural income

7. National Surveys

8. Hydrobot • Remote hydro prediction, including: • Flow duration statistics • Layout and equipment optimisation • Grid connection • Costs and revenues • NPV indicating best option • Applicable across regions

9. T1 T2 10 20 30 40 50

10. Scottish Hydropower Resource Study • 657MW of untapped potential • >1,000 schemes, 20kW to 20MW

11. Employment Study • The Employment Potential of Scotland’s Hydro Resource • Refined costings • Included micro hydro (<100kW) • Feed-In Tariffs (FITs)

12. Revised Resource • 1.2 GW potential, 7,000 schemes • 169 MW across 4,400 micro-hydro sites

13. SNH Study • New Feed-In Tariffs • Simple payback of 10 years or less • Variable design flow (1 to 1.3) • Survey and mitigation costs • Full set of CAR licenses entered • 706MW across 6,312 schemes

14. babyHydro 2012 • (I’m talking about this one) • FITs as of December 2012 • 997MW across 9,152 schemes

16. Technical Screening • 1:50,000 maps • Maps of distribution grid • River status • Existing schemes

17. Technical Screening

18. Screened Resource • Total resource = 997MW • 33% good = 329MW • 165MW on Forestry Commission land • 33% good = 55MW • Total without barriers = 384MW

19. Two Waves?

20. But How Fast? Do We Care? • Market size • Targets • Replacing other sources in time • Incentives to stimulate market • Degression

21. Straight-Line Trends • Rate of commissioning • Rate of consenting

22. Cumulative Installed Hydro

23. Excluding Fasnakyle & Glendoe

24. Commissioning and Consenting Trends

25. Commissioning and Consenting Trends

26. Employment Study • Human resources for hydro • Realistic growth – Normal curve • Growth in workforce defines upper limit in hydro deployment

27. Employment Study • Graph by Jamie Wallace, Highland Eco-Design

28. Cumulative Normal Curves

29. Cumulative Normal Curves

30. Cumulative Normal Curves

31. Cumulative Normal Curves

32. Degression 20% 10% 5% 2.5%

33. Influences • Sites • Grid • Revenue support • Funding • Rents • Environment

34. Conclusion • 997MW total capacity, mostly in 100-500kW band • 384MW has no known barrier • We predict around 112MW deployment between now and 2020 • 5% degression probably for >10 years • 10% degression likely on occasion

35. Nick Forrest babyHydro Ltd M: 07784 066 445 E: nick@hydrobot.co.uk

36. Influences • Sites • Grid • Revenue support • Funding • Rents • Environment